As someone who works in tech, I’m surprised it hasn’t happened already.
Part of my job is to oversee and arrange in some capacity for licensing of digital products, especially office 365, and I can count the number of people who have a copilot subscription on one hand, out of nearly, if not more than 1000 users across various clients.
I know some are using competing products, mainly chat GPT, and I don’t always have visibility to that, but still… The rate of adoption and the speed at which all of this is being developed and invested into… Does not bode well.
Bad for them. Fewer ai buttons shoved to my face, higher availability of GPUs, those ain’t bad for me.
“It is very hard to time a bubble,” Prof Admati told me. “And you can’t say with certainty you were in one until after the bubble has burst.”
No, we can definitely say with certainty right at this very moment that we’re in a bubble.
So which stock do I short sell - Nvidia, Oracle, or Microsoft?
The challenge, as always, is to never underestimate a bubble’s capacity to outlast your solvency. I personally know people who have been heading against the housing “bubble” in Canada bursting since 1999. They’ve spent a lot of money with nothing to show for it, yet, and missed out on housing prices, like, quadrupling? Quintupling?
So, good luck. Buying out-of-market puts might be a safer bet, since you’re most likely to “just” lose all your money, with a small chance of a massive payout of it “properly” crashes.
The only way the AI bubble won’t burst will be its complete integration into the military industrial complex and surveillance state, which is already underway.
AI traffic correlation for deanonymizing VPN users, ai tracking of all cellphone users across the US carrier networks, tracking of all people across all security cameras,…
This is just the beginning. And its all propped up by military spending from the US government.
“Data is the new oil” and all that? Is about undermining any 4th amendment right against unreasonable search and seizure. And AI is the latest (glitchy) tool to automate all of this.
But consumer facing side? Yeah, that’s gonna burst.
Well, how to buffer a few hundred billions going up in hot air?
I honestly think that each stock purchase should require an appropriate deposit.
Cannot be soon enough
I’ll likely “lose” some money from my index tracker funds when it happens, but bring it on. I know billionaires will lose a lot more than I will.
Not percentage wise though. Their money moves the markets and it’ll be them getting out that tanks your index funds. They’ll rotate into something else while you wait 8 years to get back to even because AI stocks were 40% of the market and what they run up next is only 5% of your portfolio.
It’s got to be near a top, but news like this makes me feel like they’re looking to drop the market for one more final push though.
Yeah I remember a VC guy during the dot com boom was saying they were just about to invest in another start up (following the same plan they’d been doing for a few at that point) and they got a call form upstairs telling them to pull out. The next day the bubble burst.
These bubbles burst not based on random chance. The big guys know the business isn’t sustainable, but if they keep their money in it the shares maintain their value. Then one day they all pull out and pop! The bubble bursts. But they’ll make money on that too by shorting everything.
They make money when the stocks go up and they make money when the stocks go down. And they have enough money to make those stocks go up or down.
Just like they did with Elon’s jet, we need a live public tracker of Pelosi’s stock purchases / sales so we can take the same actions apparently without any legal consequences 🙃
You could do this (there are websites you can find easily) but Pelosi isn’t in power anymore and wouldn’t be in the loop on Trump’s corruption which is way more significant than just knowing which company the government is going to award a big procurement contract to or whatever.
The Trump corruption seems to have gone with crypto shenanigans and you can’t track them. We just know that someone made >$100M by doing crypto shorts exactly one minute before Trump posted about more insane tarrifs on China, but there’s no way to know who did that and we can’t track them. They’ll probably make similar amounts of money on the inevitable TACO.
I wonder what the next grift will be. Maybe big money billionaires will technofy religion.
Given what Peter Thiel’s been talking about lately, that’s not all that far fetched.
Nah I’d put money on it being quantum computing. I think quantum has some neat applications, and the tech is cool as hell. But I think it’ll be sold like “this is gonna instantly transform business overnight” and people will try to sell quantum computing power
But I think it’ll be sold like “this is gonna instantly transform business overnight”
Tbf, and to my understanding, quantum computers will break current encryption algorithms, so it kind of will transform business overnight, just maybe not in the way these people are selling.
current encryption algorithms
The encryption-scares don’t really bother me. It’s as if everyone thinks quantum computers will come of age but for some reason quantum encryption won’t equally scale up to match it?
Like, of course current encryption methods are at risk, they aren’t designed to match quantum computing and any that would, while it would be nice if it also performed on current PC’s… it wouldn’t need to in the longrun.
I do agree that the in-between time of “Oh shit, a quantum computer was invented” and “Ta-da! Encryption that chokes QC!” is a bit scary. Here’s hoping most devs take measures and precautions during the first few warning-shot hours lol.
If we get a breakthrough moment with quantum, the machines will not be evenly distributed to start with. They will be too expensive to build, power and cool unless you’re a fortune 500 exactly like LLMs right now (aside from small models like llama that can run on consumer hardware). At the moment quantum computers rely on superconductors that have to be cooled near absolute zero which is… somewhat expensive to achieve.
Unlike LLMs (oh no I can’t talk to waifu without cell coverage waah) Not being able to run quantum algorithms on your phone in this scenario would be bad. It either means your personal comms are, for all intents and purposes decryptable by those who control the quantum machines or that you’ll have to pay rent to the people who control quantum machines to have them encrypt and decrypt stuff for you. Of course you’ll have to trust them too. Also, given governments thirst for spying on our encrypted comms, it’s possible that quantum machines are heavily regulated allowing “the good guys” a back door into our chats without giving “the baddies” a way to encrypt their comms
That’s how it’s been explained to me by laymen many many times. Just casually (ish, I have a math degree) looking at the math, chatting with a friend who is a quantum physicist, being involved with computers, etc I find that Grover’s Algorithm is not at all capable of something like that. I’m not sure there’s anything better in terms of breaking encryption
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grover's_algorithm
Grover’s algorithm could brute-force a 128-bit symmetric cryptographic key in roughly 264 iterations, or a 256-bit key in roughly 2128 iterations. It may not be the case that Grover’s algorithm poses a significantly increased risk to encryption over existing classical algorithms, however.[4]
I am stoked for what it could do for protein folding, or other heavy simulation work, but in terms of proper encryption I don’t believe it actually will change much.
The typical example is Shor’s algorithm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shor's_algorithm
It allows to efficiently find the prime factors of an integer - a problem without a known polynomial algorithm on a classical computer.
This would directly break RSA encryption, as it relies on factorisation being difficult.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_cryptosystem
However, there are encryption algorithms that are considered safe even against a quantum computer.
That’s fair, Shor’s algorithm would probably break a bunch of older encryption. It’s a little further out of reach, in terms of feasibility but who knows how fast it could speed up
So basically anything not using RSA is fine, which is probably everything these days.
Some people aren’t mincing their words about it either, calling the deals “circular financing” or even “vendor financing” - where a company invests in or lends to its own customers so they can continue making purchases.
“Yes, the investment loans are unprecedented,” Mr Altman told me on Monday.
But, he added, “it’s also unprecedented for companies to be growing revenue this fast.”
OpenAI’s revenue is growing quickly, but it has never turned a profit.
The revenue is still less than that of Clash of Clans or Candy Crush. And it is mostly coming from the companies involved in the shell game as well.
From my experience, OAI may be the public face of AI, but Anthropic is murdering them in coding capability and cost - as in my company pays more in a week for me to use Claude than I would’ve paid in a month to use the top OAI API. (Actually I paid 1/10th that because I couldn’t afford that for what was essentially just a toy for my discord users—I wasn’t using it for development.) It really puts things in perspective when I can see in Cline the running totals for each task.
Of course, I have no idea what the operating costs are.
All it takes is openAI or anthropic to run out of cash, then everyone providing them compute suddenly has giant power sucking white elephants that are basically useless for anything else (maybe crypto mining LMAO). And then they all stop buying more chips from Nvidia (you know, the company whose valuation is 8% of most index funds, and 80% of their revenue and all of their revenue growth over the past two years has been from data center sales).
Kinda crazy how 7 companies, all heavily invested in AI cloud compute, in one way or another, make up about a 1/3rd of the S&P 500.
I mean, good thing the AI bubble couldn’t possible pop any other bubbles. I mean, it’s not like nearly a decade of low interest rates could possibly have built any other bubbles in any other sort of asset markets.
Let it burn! But after the bubble bursts the next Question will be: These idiots, like Sam Altman, Dario Amodel, Zuckerberg and Elon musk, do they get a juicy government bailout at the expense of the public or do they get punished for their stupidity?
Knowing corrupt Trump in power and aipac dems yes.
It’s like the original internet bubble. The predictions are right, but not the timeline.
However, it’s not decades but years until the predictions will be true.
LLM models refuse to follow direct instructions.
Not good enough. Takes more time to deal with that crap than to just do it yourself.
The bubble will burst and the people will feast
Please let me know upfront, so I will sell my stocks.
No worries I’ll just rotate into gold. Let’s see what the price is at these days.
God dammit!
Don’t get me wrong … I thoroughly enjoyed the college ski vacation with friends that I paid my portion of by selling the 6 ounces I’d recently inherited.
At $285/ounce. Now it’s $4,000.
Best second best option, silver?
Just hit its ATH as well!
then go short on S&P500 hahaha if you dare ;P (I won’t recommend it xD)
