The MBAs think they can just pull an Internet and mobile device revolution out of thin air 💀💀💀
The Internet was a slow burn starting in the 1960s and gaining momentum through one of humanity’s most productive generations into the 80s and beyond, spurred on by personal computing. Mobile was a (retrospectively) natural continuation.
LLMs have been around for a very long time but they’re just forcing the issue with a product that’s not yet compelling enough to justify its enormous cost. It’s like waiting for the iPhone and the App Store to make smartphones ubiquitous.
Ehh I don’t think mobile was just a continuation of the Internet revolution, it was its own thing that happened to change the internet a lot.
I see it as an extension of the PC combined with the Internet and hardware advances. It certainly changed the Internet and our society. But I’ll leave it to historians to fight over!
Tactile screen was dreamed by TV. Mobiles covered that. On the technical standpoint, arm power consumption and having music, camera, gps, etc. all resonated with online/! digitalization of our selves. So, yes. I concur!
Vibe coding a new dot-com bubble
What the industry needs is to fail catastrophically and destroy the fortunes of as many billionaires as possible.
That would lead to an AI ice age. Surely not the worst development for Gaia and her children.
Once there is enough adoption, expect token costs to skyrocket and advertising enshitifaction to accelerate. We are still in the “first hit is free” stage of ai drug addiction.
The companies that replaced employees with AI are already entering the “find out” stage.
So, that’s the best we’ll ever get?
AI’s business model is starting to look less like a revolution and more like a $6 trillion IOU. Bain says existing AI services may cover just $1.8 trillion by 2031, leaving a $4.2 trillion hole to justify the data center frenzy. Apparently the killer app is still: »please invent enough revenue before the depreciation schedule catches us!!!«
The killer app is “you can’t build your own cloud because we’re hoarding all the compute”
Also many of the skills for building your private cloud have been forgotten or retired because Amazon and azure.
Even if AI takes off the way people hope it will, that does not mean that data center investments will pay out.
Local models exist and are a viable alternative (partially to substantially to completely) to sending every query to a centralized data center that is extracting profit from every token.
On top of that, everyone is now aware of the risks of tech dependency, and big players, the ones that would be sending their money to OpenAI or Anthropic, are the ones best able to declare their independence.
In order to make $6 trillion by 2031, every human being on earth would have to spend at least $150 per year on average.
Maybe that doesn’t sound like a lot if you’re already paying a $100 a month for a Claude max subscription or whatever, but consider that the vast majority of people don’t pay for any AI at all, and have no interest in ever paying for it.
Also, $150 is a best-case scenario where revenue is 100% profit. In actual reality, the profit margins are much, much lower, and may not even exist at all!
The time bomb is society’s total prostration to the ruling class, of which tech journalism’s enabling vassalage is but a subset.
That’s changing, people are getting way fed up. The best years of the wealthy are behind them. The next two years are going to be violent chaos, as MAGA tries to increase their grip on power, and abolish elections, but that will be their downfall, and their oligarch slavemasters will go down with them.
It’s fine. All of this is borrowed money and commitments. The reason prices on RAM and GPUs are through the roof is because all of the future capacity has been spoken for. But when the datacenters all that silicon is supposed go into don’t arrive, all of that booked demand evaporates. I think we’ll see a very nice market correction. Big tech will be fine, but stock prices will tank. The US AI labs will continue to exist, but the chinese labs will gut their competitive advantage. US put all their eggs into this stupid AI basket and China will be happy to give away the tech to spit in the US’s soup.
Innovation?
That’s just code for “Find a way to fuck consumers out of their money withoit actually giving them anything.”
I take a market crash of apocalyptic proportions over a cloud dystopia any day.
A message to the industry:
Fuck yourselves, you traitorous, awful, slimy, scummy, pee brained, flee bitten, rabid, child raping, terrorist, ego driven, scumbag, sacks of monkey shit. Holy shit; hallelujah
Claude, create an innovation which will dwarf what cloud and mobile unlocked. There we go. I’m a bit of an innovator.
AI will save money, and make very little. The business will collapse, but the effects will be permanent in so far as they can. We’re stuck with some AI for good, unfortunately.
Just enough to keep people from going into withdrawals. A little AI, as a treat.
In case we’re not aware already, these companies are building faster and bigger than the market can keep up with. They’re expecting a tremendous fallout likely within the next several years. The companies that remain will dominate this market indefinitely… for better or worse
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