Six weeks into his second term, the U.S. president has hit imports from Mexico and Canada with 25% levies, put an additional 20% tariff on goods from China, threatened reciprocal tariffs globally and cut off military aid to Ukraine.

But instead of the rising yields and higher dollar that investors had wagered on in November, the so-called “Trump trade” is in full retreat.

Trade conflict has begun in earnest and the dollar is falling while bond yields dive.

U.S. allies are rattled. As Goldman Sachs analysts note, the average tariff rate on imports from China is now 34% and the increase is already roughly twice as large as that in the first Trump administration. Nobody wants to bet anymore that there will be swift compromises or deals.