Russia is expanding its military infrastructure near the border with Finland, in what NATO officials describe as the early stages of a long-term buildup, The New York Times reported Monday.
An active fight? Yeah, that’s not going to happen. A passive one, though? Might be an option. Carlo Masala recently published his new book If Russia wins: a scenario (No English translation yet). In it, he draws up a scenario where Russia, after defeating Ukraine, annexes a small Estonian town to test NATO’s resolve in the face of a limited Russian aggression. He bases this scenario on the German Re-occupation of the Rhineland, during which German troops had they faced any serious resistance by allied forces would have had to retreat. In the book NATO members are divided and dismiss the Estonians request for help under Article 5.
There is zero chance Russia is ever getting away with that
Is there? Given the rather reluctant support of Ukraine, which is about just enough to keep them in the fight, I’m afraid that at least some NATO members would rather give away a symbolic chunk of land than start a military confrontation. And yes, that would be the end of NATO.
Romania and Poland had multiple opportunities to show something when shahed drones fly and crash/explode over their territory, they chose to do nothing every time. When these nations are so afraid of even destroying drones over their own aerospace muscovytes will invade whoever they want and other nato countries will just cower and pretend that everything is fine.
Depends what you mean by NATO is no more. I can even imagine some scenarios where the end of NATO might make it less likely that they would invade. It all depends on the context.
My general point was that commentators in the west (and politicians and even the local) often treat russia as they want to see it, not how it is (i.e. based on historical fact and decades of quantitative and qualitative research on society in the current iteration of the russian empire).
An active fight? Yeah, that’s not going to happen. A passive one, though? Might be an option. Carlo Masala recently published his new book If Russia wins: a scenario (No English translation yet). In it, he draws up a scenario where Russia, after defeating Ukraine, annexes a small Estonian town to test NATO’s resolve in the face of a limited Russian aggression. He bases this scenario on the German Re-occupation of the Rhineland, during which German troops had they faced any serious resistance by allied forces would have had to retreat. In the book NATO members are divided and dismiss the Estonians request for help under Article 5.
If even a cm of NATO is invaded and not acted on the alliance is worthless. For each nations safety, they must act or be defenceless going forward.
There is zero chance Russia is ever getting away with that, especially after burning all their bridges in Ukraine.
Is there? Given the rather reluctant support of Ukraine, which is about just enough to keep them in the fight, I’m afraid that at least some NATO members would rather give away a symbolic chunk of land than start a military confrontation. And yes, that would be the end of NATO.
Romania and Poland had multiple opportunities to show something when shahed drones fly and crash/explode over their territory, they chose to do nothing every time. When these nations are so afraid of even destroying drones over their own aerospace muscovytes will invade whoever they want and other nato countries will just cower and pretend that everything is fine.
You don’t understand russian culture and mentality. Although in your defence, this is relatively common.
How so?
They would very much be willing to conquer the Baltic nations if the opportunity shows itself. The russians are obsessed with colonizing the baltics.
The author that you referred to, does he speak russian? Estonian? Ukrainian? I am genuinely curious.
I very much understand that but there is no such opportunity for an all out conquest until NATO is no more.
I don’t know.
Depends what you mean by NATO is no more. I can even imagine some scenarios where the end of NATO might make it less likely that they would invade. It all depends on the context.
My general point was that commentators in the west (and politicians and even the local) often treat russia as they want to see it, not how it is (i.e. based on historical fact and decades of quantitative and qualitative research on society in the current iteration of the russian empire).
I’m really interested in how they could invade and occupy a Baltic state when their Baltic sea fleet is almost all underwater.
Carlo Masala is German. Don’t know if he speaks other languages.