I’m interested in developing the skill to estimate probabilities for real-world situations. What are the best ways to learn this systematically? Are there books, courses, or exercises that teach probabilistic thinking, Bayesian reasoning, or practical forecasting skills?
I want to check this math and see if the AI is gaslighting me.
Ignoring the AI part, since it doesn’t even know it’s gaslighting you.
Maybe read some Buckminster Fuller. He opined to some length about trends in real-world changes.
Isaac Asimov as well, just for a general sense of the approach.
But overall probabilities are kinda arbitrary when applied to specific events. They work fine for a whole lot of similar events (e.g. pulling colored marbles out of a bag) but they don’t really have any tangible meaning for unique events. Either you guess wrong or you guess right.
If you want to predict future events, you need to have a good grasp on current events, past events, and systemic behavior in general. There isn’t one methodology that yields results generally. You need to tailor your approach to suit each prediction.
That’s not something you can learn from one book, course, or series of exercises. It relies on broad scholarship.