Lack of public appearances prompted speculation about new leader’s mortality after multiple family members died
The confirmation that Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, was injured in the first wave of Israeli attacks underlines how desperate the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (ICRG) was to ensure their wounded choice was elevated to high office, and how confident it is that the wartime machinery can operate almost on automatic pilot without him.
The full scale of Khamenei’s injuries and speed of his recovery remain unclear, but a broken leg and facial injuries are the minimum. It is not a medical bulletin on which the authorities are seeking to dwell, although Ali Larijani, the secretary of the supreme national security council, chose his words carefully in saying “his condition has not been reported as critical”, a phrasing that suggests he has not personally seen him.
Iranian leaders have had decades to prepare for plans for the event that Khamenei Sr. is murdered by US or Israel like what those actors have done to others in the Middle East under multiple presidents. From the outside it seems that plan is more or less underway. Trump’s planning ability now goes out to a few hours, at best.