Summary
Former CIA Director Leon Panetta warned that Trump’s return to the White House could embolden Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, giving him a “blank check” in the Middle East and increasing the risk of war with Iran.
Panetta expressed concern that Trump would support Netanyahu’s aggressive stance against Iran without restraint, potentially worsening regional instability.
Panetta also predicted Trump might allow Russia to retain parts of Ukraine if he returns to office, though he doubted Trump’s negotiation skills.
He criticized Trump’s approach to foreign policy, suggesting Trump would be inclined to “capitulate” to authoritarian leaders, which may not sit well with some Republicans.
I would hedge my bets for now. Alternative scenario: The Saudis throw another party for Trump, make some business deals in exchange for reigning in Israel. The House of Al Saud of course doesn’t care about Palestinians but their people do and a party and some business is a low price to pay to be celebrated by your subjects.
When it comes to Russia, Trump may realise that Putin way overplayed his hand, but that’s balanced by animosity towards Zelensky. OTOH, I mean, business deals. Don’t underestimate Ukraine when it comes to being smooth operators. They can sell NASA/SpaceX rocket engines made from Russian war reparations titanium.
Thing is: Trump is highly neurotic and thus, while not necessarily predictable, highly manipulatable if you know what you’re doing. Only have to blow the right smoke up his ass.
Just have to be the last one to blow any smoke up there.
Since we’re doing copium, my hope for Ukraine is that the industrial-millitary complex wants to keep sending weapons there, so it will find a way.