This is all old articles. Of course, the trajectories put out there are the same, but you need to follow what’s happening on the ground

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-7-2023

What’s possible and not possible will be shown this summer.

Mearsheimer is not a military expert, so he has no idea how the war will turn out. Even if we accept he’s an expert on politics, the actual situation on the ground will affect the future more. I’d rather listen to what generals say

I’m questioning his expertise. Every time he says “Russia wouldn’t do that” Russia does it. And he is still considered an expert despite several claims of how Russia:

1. Wouldn’t try to annex more of Ukraine after Crimea (did it)
2. Could only have limited military aims in Ukraine (went straight for the capital)
3. The rest of the former Soviet republics would support Russia (big oof, everyone but Belarus refused to support Russia)

At this point, you just have to say he’s gotten everything wrong, but continues to double down

No, even if you study all your life, it won’t let you predict the future. People study stocks all their lives and they still can’t beat a simple stock index in the long term. So stop listening to articles that make wrong predictions.

Like Mearshimer who in 2014 predicted Putin had no further territorial ambitions in Ukraine. Yet Putin annexed further regions in Ukraine, despite this “expert” studying stuff.

I’m in Beijing right now, last month good, but this spring was pretty bad

Just because you study something doesn’t mean you magically know the future. Stop following “experts” and form your own opinion

Why should I believe those people? Who made them experts?

Watch the actual developments on the ground, don’t listen to propaganda. Russian telegram channels tell you how the war is going, don’t need a guy to pretend to know the future

They have mobilized 300,000 troops last year. It’s news to Russia that they didn’t contest it, since they fought for and lost Pyatyhatky, just now fighting for and losing Zherebyanky.

There are intense battles in Orikhiv area, but that could go either way. If Russia loses anything “they are not even trying”?

No position to take any territory back? How about the 300km^2 they took back already this summer?

It’s not their own territory