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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 13th, 2023

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  • Ok, I read the linked sources from the article and think I understand this a bit better now.

    I believe the twice as likely number from the headline is coming from this:

    By statistically modelling storms in a 1.3°C cooler climate, this model showed that climate change was responsible for an increase of about 150% in the number of such storms (now once every 53 years on average, up from every 130 years), and equivalently that the maximum wind speeds of similar storms are now about 6.1 m/s (around 11%) more intense.

    And I think the 200-500 times more likely number is referring to Sea Surface Temperatures that lead to major storms. So something like (and this is me talking, not how it’s worded in any of the source material) “when the Sea Surface Temperature is at 69° F then major hurricanes can be produced, and due to climate change, we’re getting temperatures that high 200-500 times more than we used to.”

    I hope I interpreted that correctly.