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Cake day: June 16th, 2023

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  • Keep in mind these are dual socket systems, and that’s CPU without any GPU yet. So with the CPUs populated and a consumer-grade high end GPU added, those components are at 1500W, ignoring PSU inefficiencies and other components that can consume non-trivial power.

    For USA, you almost never run a 20A circuit, most are 15A, but even then that’s considered short term consumption and if you run over a longer term it’s supposed to be 80%, so down to 1440W. Space heaters usually max out at 1400W in the USA when expected to plug into a standard outlet because of this. A die-hard enthusiast might figure out how to spread non-rendundant multiple PSUs across circuits, or have a rare 20A circuit run, but it’s going to be a very very small niche.


  • But then there are the differences.

    Let’s say the COVID vaccinne triggered a whole lot of new pharmarcies that specialized only in vacinnes. Still good news for Moderna. Except those new pharmacies can’t quite afford the vaccines they set up their business to work in. Moderna’s stock is so high though, that they can leverage that stock to get money to invest in those new pharmacies to give them money so they can buy the vacinnes.

    Then the pandemic passes and those pharmacies have no business and fold and their market cap collapses to zero and Moderna spent a bunch of money they didn’t actually have on now worthless equity, and their revenue and perceived value drops back to pre-bubble levels. Except even lower because they incurred liabilities that they didn’t have pre-bubble.

    For the crypto bubble, nVidia went out of their way to keep their financials out of it. But for AI they’ve been giving their biggest customers the money they need to buy nVidia’s product. Basically a cyclone of big top line numbers self-funded but enough to drive the markets wild for nVidia stock. The big players have likely already ensured billions of more secure assets that won’t pop as hard and so “why not?” to play with the extra ‘free’ money to see how big the numbers can go.




  • Yes, they connect by PCIe and thus the physical mismatch may be overcome, but they also are now drawing 15kw. More wattage than any circuit in my residential breaker box can handle.

    Even if you did, there’s not even a whiff of driving circuitry for a video port, so your only application would be local models, and if the bubble bursts, well that would seem to indicate that use case would be not that popular.

    No I would expect that these systems get rented out of sold to supercomputer concerns for super cheap if a bubble pop should occur.






  • Someone compromises your password. Now they can “find hub” to know exactly where you are. If they are a criminal, they can wait and strike when you’re online data says you are vulnerable.

    You lose your unencrypted device. Someone launches your browser and logs into your bank…

    Advertising knows your financial situation and might, for example, present a higher price because it sees that you generally are willing to pay more.

    It’s not that you have something to hide sure to dubious behavior, it’s that all these others will exploit that knowledge to commit crimes against you or have unfair advantages in their relationship with you.


  • OEM license revenue represents a tiny tiny bit of their financials these days. They could just charge nothing for it and business wise no one probably notice much of a difference.

    It is foundational to a lot of what they do, but older devices are just as good for their subscription and tie in revenue. Hell I use my work subscription for office from Linux, complete with OneDrive filesystem synchronization. Microsoft gets all their money from my headcount even as I don’t even use Windows.

    But that capex could bite them hard if revenue falls to follow from it. That’s pretty much the only exposure investors care about.