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Cake day: 2023年6月16日

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  • I too see 1. as the unambiguous thing to do, follow ICE, record everything. Be a visible deterrent. I don’t think Trump has the right to order them to stop and I don’t think they are inclined to listen to Trump over the interests of their own community.

    Though being around the question is what is the guard response to an event like the Pretti shooting would be if they were there documenting things… Being in that scenario with guardsmen might be impossible to both avoid conflict and provide an acceptable response. Guess we would have to hope that the inherent risk of escalation tempers the ICE people, but they haven’t exactly shown themselves to have that sort of restraint…


  • They basically spent the last 4 years planning how to make it happen as quickly as possible.

    If they haven’t finished within a year, the job risks getting much harder with an uncooperative Congress. So they have to speedrun it, no chance to do it by slow measures.

    However even if 2027 swears in the results of free and fair elections, their goals are still doable, since the government said point blank the only group that can possible hold Trump accountable is 2/3rds of the senate, and that’s not happening, and everyone else that might otherwise be more reachable can be pardoned by Trump at will.

    So they can get in the way of new legislation, but not pass anything (veto also needs 2/3rds, which they are not getting). The administration has already proven that they don’t wait for a law when they really want to do something.

    So unless democrats somehow win every single senate race that’s up for grabs in 2026, they still aren’t going to be able to do anything by the book to actually walk things back.




  • No, she was the second in the regime.

    The Trump admin felt it was probably more effective to give the current regime a slap to let them know who is calling the shots, but otherwise leave the regime largely intact. If they can just get the same Venezuela as it already existed, just as a vassal state, mission accomplished.

    Versus Machado, who was the opposition leader trying to ingratiate herself with Trump up to giving him her peace prize in hopes of having the US implement her indirect electoral victory in 2024. Trump administration has shown zero interest in making that happen.


  • How much do we have an over generation problem in general though? I suppose the argument would be that solar is curtailed because they don’t want to deal with the potential for overgeneration, but we already have a number of approaches for energy storage. Their pricing for generating at most a gallon a day is a price exceeding a battery system of LFP that could do a lot more than a gallon of gas. This is ignoring the rather significant potential of Sodium batteries.

    So this doesn’t look to be cheaper than battery systems, it looks to be way less efficient than battery systems. The biggest use case as energy storage in general seems to be if you want it to spend a few months (but not too many months, fuel degrades in the tank after all). The more narrow use case is to cater to scenarios where you absolutely need the energy density of gasoline, so boats and airplanes critically so, maybe some heavy equipment. I’ll grant that, but if particularly sodium batteries will be an acceptable approach, it’ll be better than this solution in that very wide variety of circumstances.












  • Yeah, very good analogy actually…

    I remember back in the day people putting stuff like ‘Microsoft Word’ under ‘skills’. Instead of thinking ‘oh good, they will be able to use Word competently’, the impression was ‘my god, they think Word is a skill worth bragging about, I’m inclined to believe they have no useful skills’.

    ‘Excel skills’ on a resume is just so vague, people put it down when they just figured out they can click and put things into a table, some people will be able to quickly roll some complicated formula, which is at least more of a skill (I’d rather program a normal way than try to wrangle some of the abominations I’ve seen in excel sheets).

    Using an LLM is not a skill with a significant acquisition cost. To the extent that it does or does not work, it doesn’t really need learning. If anything people who overthink the ‘skill’ of writing a prompt just end up with stupid superstitions that don’t work, and when they first find out that it doesn’t work, they just grow new prompt superstitions to add to it to ‘fix’ the problem.