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Joined 10 months ago
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Cake day: November 17th, 2023

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  • I don’t think China really backs anyone as a matter of foreign policy.

    Their position is really “if y’all don’t fuck around in our internal affairs, we won’t fuck around in yours.” What China claims to be internal affairs is rather broad, but in a historical context it’s seen as “where China was before the Century of Humiliation.” It’s somehow become a common-ground position between the CPC and KMT and stretches from the Opium Wars through the Sino-Japanese Wars and is widely recognized to end at one of two points (depending on who you ask): 1. Just prior to the CPC coming to power in 1949, or 2. Just after the Treaty of San Francisco (which invited neither the PRC or ROC) was signed in 1951.








  • The Budapest Memorandum gave countries a ton of lenience, including to intervene “for self-defense” and only maintained territorial integrity for the existing Ukrainian state (defined as one without foreign military or economic coercion).

    Russia justified their violation of the Budapest Memorandum by pointing to US intervention and funding in Euromaidan to overthrow the existing Ukrainian government as coercion which already violated the Budapest Memorandum.

    Ukraine shouldn’t have signed the Budapest Memorandum as it was. It was designed by the Russians and Americans to remove a potential nuclear adversary without providing Ukraine with any actual foundational support or protection. It was a shit deal without security guarantees and with enough loopholes to, well, drive an army through. The new deal would have included security guarantees, which are as strong an enforcement of a treaty as anything.