The idea is that after some kind of cease fire, russia will churn out stuff for 3-4-5 years (so mebbe 1.000 tanks?) and then not go full frontal against NATO but say take a bite out of Lithuania, just to see what the response will be.
Like they have been doing since forever (Chechnya, Moldavia, Georgia, Ukraine and so on).
Correct. The issue with Ukraine though is they fought back and didn’t give any land to Russia. Now Putin needs to save face and how many people put through the meat grinder to do that is irrelevant.
They can be true. They might be low on current stockpile, but what is building up is production capacity. Preparing to attack doesn’t mean immediately attacking, what most have concern is that once Russia’s war against Ukraine cools down, Russia will spend the next 4-10 years building up towards potentially attacking NATO nations.
Yes, years down the line doesn’t sound as alarming to the layman, but it is critical for that eventuality to be recognized and prepared for, nations and industry move slowly, and they need to prepare to fight another long drawn out war.
I mean it is so ridiculous on so many levels but also the gifts themselves are so absurd. If some of their high up elites just skipped a single dinner, they could probably buy something that is worth 10x more. The ruling class became so addicted to their money that they can’t even sacrifice a minute fraction of it for proper propaganda lol.
Russia has thousands of men willing to fight in horrendous conditions.
They’ve got hundreds of thousands of conscripts who are largely dug in along an enormous front, along the four eastern most seized Oblasts in Ukraine.
Any attack they would make into a NATO state would be an artillery bombardment intended to deny Ukrainians resupply, not a ground invasion to secure territory. Particularly not when they have poor control over their own borders and a nasty instance of counter-insurgence popping up in and around their major cities.
If you know anything about current Russian government, you’d know that one necessarily follows the other. The more desperate Russia gets, the less reserves they have, the more bold and aggressive they’re getting. There is a combination of factors leading into it, both psychological and material.
We have to keep in mind that Europe needs to justify austerity for the citizens and rearmament for their militaries. I have no evidence of this, but I think it’s an entierly sensible read that the warning from Germany is an overstatement with that intent in mind.
Everything written about this conflict (by anyone) is propaganda. The enemy is a powerful and maximally oppressive force we all need to fear, but is also so weak it’s losing equipment fast and its final defeat is only a matter of time.
when that wagner guy revolted, it was the final nail in the coffin
What was crazy during the Wagner Revolt was the intransigence of the Ukraine line.
You’d think that would be the moment for a full press by Ukraine troops over a lightly defended border. But no… they just stayed put and watched Prigovian flounder.
Russia wouldn’t exactly not try, but they have a very 19th century realpolitik take everything and exploit the fuck out of it approach. I would have said that’s silly. now, not so sure it isn’t working
“obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power”. Which is far above what being in NATO requires states to do. Which just btw also covers Greenland. Only ones off the hook are Ireland and Austria due to being neutral, the treaty still covers them though.
If a state decides that what’s in their power is sending 5000 helmets, then nobody will be able to force them to do more. Misinformed internet people think Article 42 is an automatic collective war switch, it is most certainly not and doubly so in the case of Greenland, lmao.
Russia can’t even take over Ukraine, let alone half of NATO to even make it into Germany. I personally think this is just fearmongering on the side of our elected officials so the military industrial complex can make a few more bucks with money from the state.
Russia doesn’t need to make it into Germany to make it a disaster for all of Europe.
Sure, NATO as a whole is bigger than Russia, but the troops and equipment are mostly not at the eastern border where the fighting would take place. We certainly don’t have anything near the size of the Ukrainian army stationed in the Baltics. Take the US out of the equation, because let’s be honest: under Trump they’re not going to stand up for Europe, and the military balance suddenly looks a lot less favorable. I’m not so sure the European NATO states could mount an effective and timely response to an incursion into the Baltic states, or into Poland around the Suwalki gap.
Then move troops there. The European NATO members already outspend Russia in terms of military investments. Russia can’t even take over Ukraine, a country that’s not even in NATO and hasn’t even had any modern military equipment for a very long time. Hell, they’re getting hand me downs from countries like Germany, equipment that’s decades old, isn’t state of the art, and needs repairs, and they’re still keeping Russia at bay. Now there’s articles about Russia depleting its own tank stocks and shit, not being able to sustain even a war with Ukraine, and we’re supposed to believe that Russia will somehow attack Germany or Poland (which is to be fair probably better armed than Germany).
So there’s only two options here: either the western press is lying about Russia depleting its stocks and they’re actually holding back instead of fully invading Ukraine (God knows why they fought in Ukraine for three years now then instead of just releasing their full “military might” from the get go). Or, the western press is fear mongering about Russia actually being able to invade NATO so the military industrial complex can make a quick buck off of our tax money.
My two cents: there’s no chance in hell Russia can invade any NATO country, they can barely function in Ukraine lmao. Just send troops to the baltic and you’re gonna be fine. No need for trillions of euros in new guns.
one thing that i keep needing to bring up as well, with what troops? Russia has been losing a lot of people in Ukraine. Even if we ignore all the numbers being thrown about how many they really lost, they have lost troops. Invading Europe? Even if they would make start churning out vehicles at a breakneck speed now, where do they get the people to operate them? How will they hold the regions they would get?
NATO-Europe without the U.S. still outmatches Russia militarily and economically by a wide margin, but the real issue isn’t brute strength—it’s readiness and political will. Russia can’t beat Ukraine, let alone all of NATO, but a surprise move in the Baltics or Suwałki Gap could be disastrous if Europe doesn’t act fast. It’s not that Russia is strong—it’s that Europe can’t afford to be slow or divided.
We can’t put all our troops in the Baltics, nevermind the fact that we don’t have all that much troops and ammunition. Most of our money is spent on high tech weapons in limited numbers.
The European NATO members already outspend Russia in terms of military investments
Not really.
In terms of Euros spent, yes, we outspend them, but when adjusted for purchasing power we’re scarily close to parity: 100 rubles in Russia buys you a lot more than 1 euro in Europe. And our militaries are hopelessly fragmented, and behind in the rearming race.
The ruble’s exchange rate is on the level of 2020-2021: 0,011 euro to the ruble. Shows how much you know.
Also, most of the military production is internal… so the exchange rate of the ruble is meaningless to determine relative military strength, which is precisely why a PPP conversion is needed.
Russia is still ramping up military production on a wartime economy, to be used after the Ukrainians stop fighting back.
Also their production focuses on their modern options for land and air. I don’t know what their naval production is doing.
German security officials believe the Kremlin is laying the groundwork for a potential large-scale conventional war with NATO by the end of the decade, according to multiple reports cited by European Pravda and Bild.
Elsewhere on Lemmy today;
Both of these cannot be true.
The idea is that after some kind of cease fire, russia will churn out stuff for 3-4-5 years (so mebbe 1.000 tanks?) and then not go full frontal against NATO but say take a bite out of Lithuania, just to see what the response will be.
Like they have been doing since forever (Chechnya, Moldavia, Georgia, Ukraine and so on).
Correct. The issue with Ukraine though is they fought back and didn’t give any land to Russia. Now Putin needs to save face and how many people put through the meat grinder to do that is irrelevant.
Irrelevant to Putin. It matters a lot to Europe and Ukraine.
There are ways Russia can attack that doesn’t include massive tank charges
They can be true. They might be low on current stockpile, but what is building up is production capacity. Preparing to attack doesn’t mean immediately attacking, what most have concern is that once Russia’s war against Ukraine cools down, Russia will spend the next 4-10 years building up towards potentially attacking NATO nations.
Yes, years down the line doesn’t sound as alarming to the layman, but it is critical for that eventuality to be recognized and prepared for, nations and industry move slowly, and they need to prepare to fight another long drawn out war.
Both things can be true because Germany is talking about risks in the upcoming 5 to 10 years, while this issue is relevant today.
They absolutely can.
Russia has thousands of men willing to fight in horrendous conditions.
A few thousand soldiers that are very well equipped might lose to 10x as many badly equipped enemies.
I think they would lose, but they might not think so.
I still can’t believe how fucking shameless their regime is with those “prizes”. Like… holy fuck.
It’s about search engine squatting, if you now search “Russia meatgrinder” you get that, instead of articles about losing the war.
Lmfao this is hilariously logical and I bet it’s actually the reason
I mean it is so ridiculous on so many levels but also the gifts themselves are so absurd. If some of their high up elites just skipped a single dinner, they could probably buy something that is worth 10x more. The ruling class became so addicted to their money that they can’t even sacrifice a minute fraction of it for proper propaganda lol.
They’ve got hundreds of thousands of conscripts who are largely dug in along an enormous front, along the four eastern most seized Oblasts in Ukraine.
Any attack they would make into a NATO state would be an artillery bombardment intended to deny Ukrainians resupply, not a ground invasion to secure territory. Particularly not when they have poor control over their own borders and a nasty instance of counter-insurgence popping up in and around their major cities.
If you know anything about current Russian government, you’d know that one necessarily follows the other. The more desperate Russia gets, the less reserves they have, the more bold and aggressive they’re getting. There is a combination of factors leading into it, both psychological and material.
We have to keep in mind that Europe needs to justify austerity for the citizens and rearmament for their militaries. I have no evidence of this, but I think it’s an entierly sensible read that the warning from Germany is an overstatement with that intent in mind.
I guess you need to pretend there’s a threat NOW in order to divert funds towards defense now.
If the threat is in more like 10 years, why don’t we start investing next year instead? etc.
Everything written about this conflict (by anyone) is propaganda. The enemy is a powerful and maximally oppressive force we all need to fear, but is also so weak it’s losing equipment fast and its final defeat is only a matter of time.
I was told that russia was bankrupt and the war would be over in 3 months. And then when that wagner guy revolted, it was the final nail in the coffin
Yet here we are and the war is still on.
It’s not our fault you have been badly informed.
Everyone knows the russian economy is on the ropes for example, but when will it crack? No one knows.
What was crazy during the Wagner Revolt was the intransigence of the Ukraine line.
You’d think that would be the moment for a full press by Ukraine troops over a lightly defended border. But no… they just stayed put and watched Prigovian flounder.
The Partnership: The Secret History of the War in Ukraine https://lemmy.world/post/27574354
NYT article explains it.
Heavy stuff.
TLDR?
Have you never worked in an organization?
You can have as many preparation meetings as you want and still be on your ass when the day of judgement comes.
“No plan survives first contact” - Helmuth
Russia wouldn’t exactly not try, but they have a very 19th century realpolitik take everything and exploit the fuck out of it approach. I would have said that’s silly. now, not so sure it isn’t working
They can flood the Baltics with drones and cause plenty of chaos and destruction.
Taking over a Baltic state is feasible. NATO might react by sending helmets and prayers.
Artikel 42 EU treaty. All members of the EU have to fight with their full capacity. This will escalate quickly.
There are already EU troops in the Baltics, just to remind the Russans of it.
You should read Article 42.
“obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power”. Which is far above what being in NATO requires states to do. Which just btw also covers Greenland. Only ones off the hook are Ireland and Austria due to being neutral, the treaty still covers them though.
If a state decides that what’s in their power is sending 5000 helmets, then nobody will be able to force them to do more. Misinformed internet people think Article 42 is an automatic collective war switch, it is most certainly not and doubly so in the case of Greenland, lmao.
Russia can’t even take over Ukraine, let alone half of NATO to even make it into Germany. I personally think this is just fearmongering on the side of our elected officials so the military industrial complex can make a few more bucks with money from the state.
Russia doesn’t need to make it into Germany to make it a disaster for all of Europe.
Sure, NATO as a whole is bigger than Russia, but the troops and equipment are mostly not at the eastern border where the fighting would take place. We certainly don’t have anything near the size of the Ukrainian army stationed in the Baltics. Take the US out of the equation, because let’s be honest: under Trump they’re not going to stand up for Europe, and the military balance suddenly looks a lot less favorable. I’m not so sure the European NATO states could mount an effective and timely response to an incursion into the Baltic states, or into Poland around the Suwalki gap.
Then move troops there. The European NATO members already outspend Russia in terms of military investments. Russia can’t even take over Ukraine, a country that’s not even in NATO and hasn’t even had any modern military equipment for a very long time. Hell, they’re getting hand me downs from countries like Germany, equipment that’s decades old, isn’t state of the art, and needs repairs, and they’re still keeping Russia at bay. Now there’s articles about Russia depleting its own tank stocks and shit, not being able to sustain even a war with Ukraine, and we’re supposed to believe that Russia will somehow attack Germany or Poland (which is to be fair probably better armed than Germany).
So there’s only two options here: either the western press is lying about Russia depleting its stocks and they’re actually holding back instead of fully invading Ukraine (God knows why they fought in Ukraine for three years now then instead of just releasing their full “military might” from the get go). Or, the western press is fear mongering about Russia actually being able to invade NATO so the military industrial complex can make a quick buck off of our tax money.
My two cents: there’s no chance in hell Russia can invade any NATO country, they can barely function in Ukraine lmao. Just send troops to the baltic and you’re gonna be fine. No need for trillions of euros in new guns.
one thing that i keep needing to bring up as well, with what troops? Russia has been losing a lot of people in Ukraine. Even if we ignore all the numbers being thrown about how many they really lost, they have lost troops. Invading Europe? Even if they would make start churning out vehicles at a breakneck speed now, where do they get the people to operate them? How will they hold the regions they would get?
Russia has a larger army than any European country. Only Ukraine comes close, and they have veterancy only rivaled by the US and Ukraine.
(Ukraine probably wins on veterancy)
Sure, if Europe acts with Unity, they can roflstomp Russia, but Moscow would be looking for a moment of crisis to exploit.
NATO-Europe without the U.S. still outmatches Russia militarily and economically by a wide margin, but the real issue isn’t brute strength—it’s readiness and political will. Russia can’t beat Ukraine, let alone all of NATO, but a surprise move in the Baltics or Suwałki Gap could be disastrous if Europe doesn’t act fast. It’s not that Russia is strong—it’s that Europe can’t afford to be slow or divided.
We can’t put all our troops in the Baltics, nevermind the fact that we don’t have all that much troops and ammunition. Most of our money is spent on high tech weapons in limited numbers.
Not really.
In terms of Euros spent, yes, we outspend them, but when adjusted for purchasing power we’re scarily close to parity: 100 rubles in Russia buys you a lot more than 1 euro in Europe. And our militaries are hopelessly fragmented, and behind in the rearming race.
Anders Puck Nielsen has a very informative video on the topic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxq-TvgNCBU
The rubel is massively devalued. PPP calculations have to be taken with a grain of salt.The ruble’s exchange rate is on the level of 2020-2021: 0,011 euro to the ruble. Shows how much you know.
Also, most of the military production is internal… so the exchange rate of the ruble is meaningless to determine relative military strength, which is precisely why a PPP conversion is needed.
Right, I was too lazy to check.
Russia is still ramping up military production on a wartime economy, to be used after the Ukrainians stop fighting back. Also their production focuses on their modern options for land and air. I don’t know what their naval production is doing.
We’re on the verge of total victory
The enemy is prepared to launch its biggest attack yet
Is the same war time propaganda we’ve been served up for decades. Iraq/Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Kosovo, Vietnam, Korea…
The news coverage is totally divorced from what is happening on the ground. There’s even a term for it.
Credibility Gap
Who said the attack would be with conventional armed forces?
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/germany-warns-russia-may-be-preparing-attack-on-nato/
This your first round in front of the firehose of lies?
Best guess: Russia is a paper bear that need to keep growling before the bookworms eat it
One of the traits of fascism by Umberto Eco, enemy is in the same time weak and strong.
Right, so in your version of this world, who is the fascist? Germany?
Fascists are the ones that do or promote fascist things. Germany is not one of those countries.
Not with tanks. Probably with hypersonic nukes instead.