My great grandfather was a ferrier, a person who shoes horses. He trained from the age of 12 on how to trim hooves and set nails and repair damage. By all accounts he was very good at it. And at the time automobiles were only for the ultra rich as a hobby or a social statement. Horses were for everyone else, and my great granpappy was pretty sure he had a career for life and to heck with those new fangled rotomobiles
But it took less than 15 years for horse ownership to collapse (and a good thing too, most cities were facing a dung removal logistical nightmare) and he went from a skilled tradesman to a day laborer to a dead alcoholic in less than 20 years
Maybe you can learn some lessons from his arrogance.
Oh, that I can, and thank you for your message, really. With that said, here is the differences: cars did work as a transport, and AI as it is marketed (magic replacer of all) does not, and even in the narrow use case of programming - no, it does not. It can produce heaps of lines of code, it cannot do the work of building a reliable software that does what is required of it. It has also failed to replace artists. So no, I am not afraid
My monkey brain keeps hearing of non-linear progress, and things keep staying here:
Besides that, since you insist on being fearful: why AI of all things and not a handful of rich assholes who actually make our lives hard every damn day?
Yes, it’s not linear. The progress of GenAI in the past 2 years is logarithmic at best, if you compare it with the boom that was 2019-2023 (from GPT2 to GPT4 in text, DALL-E 1 to 3 in images). The big companies trained their networks on all of the internet and ran out of training data, if you compare GPT4 to GPT5 it’s pretty obvious. Unless there’s a significant algorithmic breakthrough (which is looking less and less likely), at least text-based AI is not going to have another order-of-magniture improvement for a long time. Sure, it can already replace like 10% of devs who are doing boring JS stuff, but replacing at least half of the dev workforce is a pipe dream of the C-suite for now.
My great grandfather was a ferrier, a person who shoes horses. He trained from the age of 12 on how to trim hooves and set nails and repair damage. By all accounts he was very good at it. And at the time automobiles were only for the ultra rich as a hobby or a social statement. Horses were for everyone else, and my great granpappy was pretty sure he had a career for life and to heck with those new fangled rotomobiles
But it took less than 15 years for horse ownership to collapse (and a good thing too, most cities were facing a dung removal logistical nightmare) and he went from a skilled tradesman to a day laborer to a dead alcoholic in less than 20 years
Maybe you can learn some lessons from his arrogance.
Oh, that I can, and thank you for your message, really. With that said, here is the differences: cars did work as a transport, and AI as it is marketed (magic replacer of all) does not, and even in the narrow use case of programming - no, it does not. It can produce heaps of lines of code, it cannot do the work of building a reliable software that does what is required of it. It has also failed to replace artists. So no, I am not afraid
Compare AI generated content from now and 2 years ago and extrapolate the curve
It’s not linear, but your monkey brain will insist it is
That’s why you’re not afraid.
Honestly taking programmer jobs isn’t even close to the worst thing AI is going to do to us
My monkey brain keeps hearing of non-linear progress, and things keep staying here:
Besides that, since you insist on being fearful: why AI of all things and not a handful of rich assholes who actually make our lives hard every damn day?
Yes, it’s not linear. The progress of GenAI in the past 2 years is logarithmic at best, if you compare it with the boom that was 2019-2023 (from GPT2 to GPT4 in text, DALL-E 1 to 3 in images). The big companies trained their networks on all of the internet and ran out of training data, if you compare GPT4 to GPT5 it’s pretty obvious. Unless there’s a significant algorithmic breakthrough (which is looking less and less likely), at least text-based AI is not going to have another order-of-magniture improvement for a long time. Sure, it can already replace like 10% of devs who are doing boring JS stuff, but replacing at least half of the dev workforce is a pipe dream of the C-suite for now.
yes, in future IF ai replaces me as a programmer(which as explained is not possible), then I shall start working alongside it.
See cars replaced horses, but not humans, our need for progress is insatiable and I doubt any software program can emulate human intelligence