I’m interested in developing the skill to estimate probabilities for real-world situations. What are the best ways to learn this systematically? Are there books, courses, or exercises that teach probabilistic thinking, Bayesian reasoning, or practical forecasting skills?
I want to check this math and see if the AI is gaslighting me.
What you’re interested in is actuarial science. It’s an interesting and complex field. Pretty much every insurance company is built on the backs of a few talented actuaries.