I’m interested in developing the skill to estimate probabilities for real-world situations. What are the best ways to learn this systematically? Are there books, courses, or exercises that teach probabilistic thinking, Bayesian reasoning, or practical forecasting skills?
I want to check this math and see if the AI is gaslighting me.
It either happens, or it doesn’t, or the chances are not equal.
That’s 50/50/50 or 1 in 3.
SMH. You could get hit by a meteor tomorrow, or you could not. I guess you have a 50% chance of dying! Good luck with it man… I hope you make it.