Russia only negotiates when it feels it can longer get what it wants by force. It then switches to maximalist, zero-compromise give-me-something style demands to the point of absurdity.
But what should Ukraine do? The Russians and their U.S. proxies are pushing for concessions, with zero hard security guarantees. The ‘realities on the ground’, as they’re very fond of saying, aren’t such that Ukraine should be happy to only lose 20% of it’s territory, including all the human, resource and industrial potential that that includes. U.S. material support is barely relevant to Ukraine’s ability to resist the 2025 version of the Russian Terrorist Army strategically.
Indeed, what should they do? U.S. leverage is less than Trump would have you believe. Russian capabilities are not getting markedly better by any measure. Their small, slow advances are not adding up to strategic defeat for Ukraine. Ukraine has many more ‘cards to play’ before they, and Europe, should accept that this is the best time to…well…surrender, and let the russian re-tool for an obvious Next Glorious Invasion in a couple years.
Maybe the wisest plan is to keep fighting. Keep bleeding the Russians until they howl, and their terms get better. They aren’t reasonable actors - they’re trying to eradicate Ukraine completely. Politicallly, militarily, culturally. And that’s not old news - Putin said this last week. Fight until the last Ukrainian is dead. How can you even consider negotiating with such clearly genocidal hatred.
Russia is running out of money and bodies to throw at this war. His populace is tired of it and finally starting to show cracks in support at the Duma.
Putin desperately needs Trump to hand him a win so he can claim a victory and quit while he has his most important war goals achieved (illegal annexation of Crimea, along with parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zhaporizhzhya.)
I am willing to bet he would accept the current front lines, if it comes down to that. Sure, he’d rather have the entire Donbas, but he hasnt managed that in 11 years, including 3 years of full-scale war. Now all he can do is make it more painful for the rest of Ukraine in the hopes they will capitulate. He must really not understand Ukrainians at all. They wont quit, as long as Europe is in Ukraine’s corner. Hence his renewed attempts to bait Europe.
Because he is at an impasse in Ukraine, I believe Putin wants to provoke a broader conflict in Europe, in part to serve Xi’s long-term needs. A Europe forced to send all their missiles and artillery shells to Ukraine isnt going to be helping to defend Taiwan.
He would probably accept the current front lines, for sure. But he doesn’t deserve them. Ukraine can probably continue to resist at this level of intensity for a long, long time. Longer than he can afford to fund the war.
And what works for him today - indiscriminate terror bombing and thrusting low quality infiltration teams into pockets of rubble, isn’t a good occupation strategy. The point of taking territory is that you get to keep it, and can hold on to it long term. Exploit and use it. As long as Ukraine retains the capability to bomb, snipe, mine and most importantly drone any russian occupation troops or laborers, then you don’t get the benefits of the territory, and eventually you have to retreat. Just like the U.S. experience in Vietnam. Sure - you can fight tooth and nail to take ground - for a while. Then what. When it’s a death zone, eventually even the most meek serfs or fanatically devoted soldiers either die or flee. Then you retreat, and the enemy comes back.
He has an obedient servant in Trump, an obese octogenarian with the vital signs of a diabetic house cat. He HAS to get a victory of some kind before Trump goes tits up literally, or politically in whatever passes for mid-term elections next year.
This is the endgame. They are trying to strongarm Ukraine into a bad peace that Russia doesn’t deserve. But, as always, Trump doesn’t have the leverage he would like us to believe, and Russia doesn’t have a great strategy if Ukraine just says no. For Ukraine, the smart, strategic move might well be to keep the Russian war machine bleeding, instead of giving it time to recoup and get better for an inevitable next invasion.
That’s the pathetic variable here - nobody things Russia isn’t going to just try again. Soon. So - from Ukraine’s perspective and in a pursuit of a lasting peace…the best thing to do might be to keep fighting.