I think that it’s interesting to look back at calls that were wrong to try to help improve future ones.

Maybe it was a tech company that you thought wouldn’t make it and did well or vice versa. Maybe a technology you thought had promise and didn’t pan out. Maybe a project that you thought would become the future but didn’t or one that you thought was going to be the next big thing and went under.

Four from me:

  • My first experience with the World Wide Web was on an rather unstable version of lynx on a terminal. I was pretty unimpressed. Compared to gopher clients of the time, it was harder to read, the VAX/VMS build I was using crashed frequently, and was harder to navigate around. I wasn’t convinced that it was going to go anywhere. The Web has obviously done rather well since then.

  • In the late 1990s, Apple was in a pretty dire state, and a number of people, including myself, didn’t think that they likely had much of a future. Apple turned things around and became the largest company in the world by market capitalization for some time, and remains quite healthy.

  • When I first ran into it, I was skeptical that Wikipedia would manage to stave off spam and parties with an agenda sufficiently to remain useful as it became larger. I think that it’s safe to say that Wikipedia has been a great success.

  • After YouTube throttled per-stream download speeds, rendering youtube-dl much less useful, the yt-dlp project came to the fore, which worked around this with parallel downloads. I thought that it was very likely that YouTube wouldn’t tolerate this — it seems to me to have all the drawbacks of youtube-dl from their standpoint, plus maybe more, and shouldn’t be too hard to detect. But at least so far, they haven’t throttled or blocked it.

Anyone else have some of their own that they’d like to share?

    • tal@lemmy.todayOP
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      5 days ago

      There are some products out there that do cater to people who want a physical keyboard on their smartphone today. It’s not the norm, but if you’re frustrated over it, it might work for you.

      Amazon has a lot of portable Bluetooth keyboards that can basically collapse down into a pocket. Those are generally designed to be used at a table, though, not in a Blackberry-style thumb keyboard sense. I’m pretty sure that I’ve seen a few of the latter that can clip to a phone, though.

  • Doomsider@lemmy.world
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    4 days ago

    That texting would be so popular. Coming from pagers to actual cell phones and being able to hear people talk anywhere was amazing. Going back to text messages seemed counterintuitive.

  • Blackmist@feddit.uk
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    7 days ago

    The Wii. Previous gen console specs. Silly gimmick controller. Best selling peripheral was a step.

    Most popular shit in the history of everything.

  • northernlights@lemmy.today
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    6 days ago

    “Bitcoin will never take”. I mined a few at the very beginning when it was easy, out of curiosity, and didn’t bother backing up because it was useless anyway. Ahem.

    • Jeffool @lemmy.world
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      6 days ago

      I bought and moved like 1 in late 2013 when it spiked just to play with it and see how it worked, out of curiosity about the tech. (And soon after, mined Dogecoin on Reddit when it started, and we all began tipping like crazy because it was fun and funny.) I made a few bucks off the BTC and kinda regretted not holding it longer. Then cut to a decade later… Sheesh. I may be more sour on the tech now, but damn I’m not so crazy as to not regret selling it.

      • QuiteQuickQum@lemmy.world
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        5 days ago

        Us early Doge sponsored a NASCAR driver! I have 30-40k locked in an unused wallet. It’s amazingly stupid that’s a thing. It was never meant to have value!

  • Acidbath@lemmy.world
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    6 days ago

    I hate microsoft but really liked windows phone and cortana. Something about tiles made a lot of sense and the keyboard was clean af.

    I am very sure they were the first to have url bar above the keyboard in their browser WHICH WAS VERY HELPFUL BECAUSE YOUR FINGERS ARE ALREADY AT THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE PHONE LIKE OMFG.

    like there was so many little things they did that just worked and worked well. rip windows phone, i will tell my grandkids about you.

  • Meron35@lemmy.world
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    7 days ago

    I never thought tablet computers would become popular among the mainstream public.

    When the iPad first came out, it was functionally worse than even the cheap netbooks, and I didn’t see much purpose in the larger screen with phones getting bigger and bigger every year. Wireless display was also already available, so I envisioned people would just cast content to a TV if they really wanted a bigger screen. Even reading articles etc seemed to be already covered by eReaders, which were already available for half a decade by the time the iPad released.

    Little did I know how brain rotted people would become.

    Tbh I personally still don’t see the utility in most tablets, except in specific niches like in digital note taking/drawing, or industrial cases where it becomes a glorified HUD.

    • Trainguyrom@reddthat.com
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      6 days ago

      except in specific niches like in digital note taking/drawing, or industrial cases where it becomes a glorified HUD.

      The one niche that they’re probably the biggest is the “I just need a public facing web browser in this spot”

      Its really hard to beat a locked down iPad for that usecase, both from a financial perspective (~$250 hardware cost for a lowest-tier iPad was the price I was seeing when ordering and provisioning them for this usecase) and from a management perspective (join it to the MDM and by nature of being an iPad, even if they get out of the browser window its really hard to cause trouble, basically 0 malware risk and iOS has far less obtrusive updates than Windows) plus from a support perspective you can simply walk users through rebooting them and swap the hardware if it needs more than a reboot

    • QuandaleDingle@lemmy.world
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      6 days ago

      Yeah, I think tablets are cool, but if they were full-fledged Windows/Linux computers with mobile app compatibility, they’d be absolutely incredible.

      • Zak@lemmy.world
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        6 days ago

        You can do that today with a Linux tablet and Waydroid. It’s more like running the Android apps in a VM than something really well integrated with the Linux environment, but perfect is the enemy of good.

    • Zak@lemmy.world
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      6 days ago

      I got my first tablet this year after a long time as a skeptic. It runs Arch, BTW.

      Most of the time it has a keyboard attached and I use it like a laptop, but it’s nice to be able to watch movies on flights during taxi, takeoff, and landing because tablets and phones are allowed, not laptops.

      Gnome is really nice on a touchscreen aside from the terrible onscreen keyboard. KDE is a little rougher, but its onscreen keyboard is decent.

  • ebolapie@lemmy.world
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    7 days ago

    I wrote a term paper once about how twitter would enable citizen journalism and lead to a more informed public and a healthier, more direct democracy. I got an A.

    I was a pretty huge fan of Zune and I still miss it.

      • lichtmetzger@discuss.tchncs.de
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        5 days ago

        And the Sidewinder Force Feedback Pro joystick. Came out in 1998 and people still build USB adapters today to make it work in modern racing games and flight simulators.

        Using light sensors was wild back then, the successor didn’t use them anymore because they cheaped out.

  • scarabic@lemmy.world
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    5 days ago

    When the first dotcom bubble burst, I predicted that big companies would buy up all the major websites for fire sale prices and put them behind subscription paywalls. “Pay $30/month and get access to all 400 sites in the Yahoo network.”

    I underestimated how easy it is to spin up alternative sites. Most of the media brands I thought of as valuable then are shit now, or gone.

    And, like everyone, I didn’t anticipate social media. Even Google was still nascent at the time.

  • zerozaku@lemmy.world
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    6 days ago

    I thought touchscreens would never work out. But here we are in a generation where have touchscreens in cars too.

    • Trainguyrom@reddthat.com
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      6 days ago

      I remember thinking similarly. Specifically “well duh you’ll just be hitting buttons with your face on calls with those dang touchscreen phones” except it turned out I spend way less time on phonecalls than circa 2006 me could have ever imagined, and also the proximity sensor blanking the screen and blocking input works really good (and even did back in the early 2010s when I got my first smartphone)

  • porcoesphino@mander.xyz
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    7 days ago

    I thought cameras on phones were a gimmick. To be fair, they were pretty low quality back then but I still use it to remind myself not to be too overconfident because boy was I wrong.

  • orclev@lemmy.world
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    7 days ago

    In the late 90s I saw a piece demonstrating an optical 3d storage system that had a capacity about an order of magnitude greater than the at the time brand new HD DVD and Bluray discs. I assumed this clearly superior format that already had a working demo would obviously kill other optical media. Turns out nobody could figure out how to manufacture one at a price anybody was willing to spend.

  • hanrahan@piefed.social
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    5 days ago

    Everything ? I though MS Office woukd fail becase no one will want to close source their data files, i was using an Amiga at the time at home and the file format was standard and you chose the app to use

    It started there and just progressed, Apple was a big one, people won’t buy into their closed wall’d shenanigans. Wrong again.

    Messaging, what a debacle that has turned into. I assumed the system would be standardised and the fight would be over the front end for interoperability, wrong again.

  • zerofk@lemmy.zip
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    7 days ago

    I thought blu-ray would supplant DVD-RW for storing and transferring data, including for buying software. Much like DVD replaced CD, which replaced diskettes. Turns out both were replaced by cloud and streaming, with a short interlude for USB sticks.

    Al still have their niches, but buying software and storing data is pretty much all online now.

    • Trainguyrom@reddthat.com
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      6 days ago

      I thought the advent of 4k TVs would push people over to BluRay because with the codecs available a decade ago you needed a good 40mbit+ for a single 4k stream. Turns out I picked the wrong component of streaming to be the thing that would push people back to physical media.

      Also all of that broadband investment that was talked about a decade+ ago actually turned into broadband improvements, so now even my in-laws who live on 8 acres in the sticks outside of a tiny town of 400 or so residents have gigabit FTTH service

      • ILikeTraaaains@lemmy.world
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        6 days ago

        It doesn’t matter how good is internet connection nowadays, the source in the server is still encoded losing some quality.

        Tried to watch Batman Begins in HBO Max, despite being offered as 4K UHD, the loss of information was noticeable on my OLED tv, specially the blacks (as you know, there is almost no black colour in Batman /s).

        A friend of mine lend me his Nolan’s Batman trilogy on BR 4K UHD and it was like night and day.

        Since the lbs I’m buying physical for movies that I like the most and want to watch them in the highest quality possible.