I think that it’s interesting to look back at calls that were wrong to try to help improve future ones.

Maybe it was a tech company that you thought wouldn’t make it and did well or vice versa. Maybe a technology you thought had promise and didn’t pan out. Maybe a project that you thought would become the future but didn’t or one that you thought was going to be the next big thing and went under.

Four from me:

  • My first experience with the World Wide Web was on an rather unstable version of lynx on a terminal. I was pretty unimpressed. Compared to gopher clients of the time, it was harder to read, the VAX/VMS build I was using crashed frequently, and was harder to navigate around. I wasn’t convinced that it was going to go anywhere. The Web has obviously done rather well since then.

  • In the late 1990s, Apple was in a pretty dire state, and a number of people, including myself, didn’t think that they likely had much of a future. Apple turned things around and became the largest company in the world by market capitalization for some time, and remains quite healthy.

  • When I first ran into it, I was skeptical that Wikipedia would manage to stave off spam and parties with an agenda sufficiently to remain useful as it became larger. I think that it’s safe to say that Wikipedia has been a great success.

  • After YouTube throttled per-stream download speeds, rendering youtube-dl much less useful, the yt-dlp project came to the fore, which worked around this with parallel downloads. I thought that it was very likely that YouTube wouldn’t tolerate this — it seems to me to have all the drawbacks of youtube-dl from their standpoint, plus maybe more, and shouldn’t be too hard to detect. But at least so far, they haven’t throttled or blocked it.

Anyone else have some of their own that they’d like to share?

  • xenomor@lemmy.world
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    1 month ago

    In the mid-nineties I passionately believed that the internet would democratize information and usher in a wonderful new era of well-informed critical thinking and general enlightenment. Basically the opposite has happened.

    • tal@lemmy.todayOP
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      considers

      I’ve been in a couple conversation threads about this topic before on here. I’m more optimistic.

      I think that the Internet has definitely democratized information in many ways. I mean, if you have an Internet connection, you have access to a huge amount of information. Your voice has an enormous potential reach. A lot of stuff where one would have had to buy expensive reference works or spend a lot of time digging information up are now readily available to anyone with Internet access.

      I think that the big issue wasn’t that people became less critical, but that one stopped having experts filter what one saw. In, say, 1996, most of what I read had passed through the hands of some sort of professional or professionals specialized in writing. For newspapers or magazines, maybe it was a journalist and their editor. For books, an author and their editor and maybe a typesetter.

      Like, in 1996, I mostly didn’t get to actually see the writing of Average Joe. In 2026, I do, and Average Joe plays a larger role in directly setting the conversation. That is democratization. Average Joe of 2026 didn’t, maybe, become a better journalist than the professional journalist of 1996. But…I think that it’s very plausible that he’s a better journalist than Average Joe of 1996.

      Would it have been reasonable to expect Average Joe of 2026 to, in addition to all the other things he does, also be better at journalism than a journalist of 1996? That seems like a high bar to set.

      And we’re also living in a very immature environment as our current media goes. I am not sold that this is the end game.

      There’s a quote from Future Shock — written in 1970, but I think that we can steal the general idea for today:

      It has been observed, for example, that if the last 50,000 years of man’s existence were divided into lifetimes of approximately sixty-two years each, there have been about 800 such lifetimes. Of these 800, fully 650 were spent in caves.

      Only during the last seventy lifetimes has it been possible to communicate effectively from one lifetime to another—as writing made it possible to do. Only during the last six lifetimes did masses of men ever see a printed word. Only during the last four has it been possible to measure time with any precision. Only in the last two has anyone anywhere used an electric motor. And the overwhelming majority of all the material goods we use in daily life today have been developed within the present, the 800th, lifetime.

      That’s just to drive home how extremely rapidly the environment in which we all live has shifted compared to how it had in the past. In that quote, Alvin Toffler was talking about how incredibly quickly things had changed in that it had only been six lifetimes since the public as a whole had seen printed text, how much things had changed. But in 2026, we live in a world where it has only been a quarter of a lifetime, less for most, since much of the global population of humanity has been intimately linked by near-instant, inexpensive, mass communication.

      I think that it would be awfully unexpected and surprising if we would have immediately figured out conventions and social structures and technical solutions to every deficiency for such a new environment. Social media is a very new thing in the human experience at this scale. I think that it is very probable that humanity will — partly by trial-and-error, getting some scrapes and bruises along the way — develop practices to smooth over rough spots and address problems.

      Consider, say, the early motorcar, which had no seatbelts, windscreen, roof, suspension, was driven on a road infrastructure designed for horse-drawn carts to travel maybe ten miles an hour, didn’t have a muffler, didn’t have an electric starter, lacked electric headlights and other lighting, an instrument panel, and all that. It probably had a lot of very glaring problems as a form of transportation to people who saw it. An awful lot of those problems have been solved over time. I think that it would be very surprising if electronic mass communication available to everyone doesn’t do something similar.

      • acosmichippo@lemmy.world
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        I think that the Internet has definitely democratized information in many ways.

        unfortunately the internet democratized the creation of information, which is one part of the the problem. Now everyone and their creepy uncle can say whatever they want and post it everywhere. Good info is drowned out by a firehose of misinformation.

        The other part of the problem is access to information is definitely not democratized; it’s controlled by billionaires, state troll mills, and bots. People are not equipped to deal with that. This is what you get with libertarian ideals, might makes right.

    • qevlarr@lemmy.world
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      1 month ago

      It wasn’t just you, this was the general sentiment in the west. Cory Doctorow (now of “enshittification” fame) wrote “The Net Delusion” about it

    • demonsword@lemmy.world
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      In the mid-nineties I passionately believed that the internet would democratize information and usher in a wonderful new era of well-informed critical thinking and general enlightenment

      The profit motive killed this dream. Capitalism seems to wither anything it touches.

    • Random_Character_A@lemmy.world
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      Yeah. Didn’t we all. Although I’ve met several smart young people that self educated themselves in to a impressive degree.

      Then again I’ve met dozen times more dumb-dumbs that have made their idiocy much much worse and are spreading it around.

      Polarizing as always. Sorry to say, on average for the worse.

    • scarabic@lemmy.world
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      It did that, but we had an overly rosy view of what “democratize” meant. We thought that citizen journalists would leaven the bulky corporate media of the time. And they did. But there was also a torrent of bullshit. We have no excuse for not seeing this. The Greeks and Romans spent a great deal of thought on what would happen if the rabble were given a voice. We dismissed their ideas as gatekeeping oligarchy, but it turns out that populism is moatly a dirty word.

  • Zak@lemmy.world
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    1 month ago

    I thought people would learn how to use computers.

    It seemed as if most of the millennial generation in wealthy countries did learn to some degree and I expected it to be even more true for younger generations. Those more sophisticated users would enable more sophisticated and flexible applications. Technology would empower individuals while weakening corporations and governments.

    Instead, the most reliable recipe for popularizing tech is to dumb it down. Millennials represent a peak of digital literacy (in wealthy countries) and those younger tend to have weaker technical skills.

  • dhork@lemmy.world
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    1 month ago

    I sold all of my Apple stock because they wanted to make a phone and I thought that would end poorly, so I should take my profits while I could.

  • mech@feddit.org
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    Around 2009 I predicted that very soon, Linux smartphones you can plug into a docking station to use as a desktop PC would become the standard consumer computing device.

    • Janx@piefed.social
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      It’s so obvious, I wish they had caught on! I remember there was a failed Ubuntu phone Kickstarter for exactly this…

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          Randomly tripped across this over NYE. Was hoping to share something on a Samsung TV at a cabin and when it synced it was showing a full desktop I could navigate using my screen as a mousepad and keyboard. Blew my mind.

        • foggenbooty@lemmy.world
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          I don’t know if I’d sat left to rot. I still use it almost every other day, and Google is working on a version for the Pixel phones as well.

          I think the Moto Atrix and Dex were probably a bit ahead of their time, but likely going to make a comeback soon.

    • SharkAttak@kbin.melroy.org
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      And I can’t really understand why we aren’t there yet. Do we really need 8 cores to phone and read IMs? And isn’t there an OS that works both on mobile and desktop? I’m baffled.

      • djdarren@piefed.social
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        I still mourn the loss of the timeline where the Atrix was successful. Our phones are every bit powerful enough for 95% of the computing most of us do, so why can’t we just drop them in a slot and have them be a laptop?

        • Zak@lemmy.world
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          Samsung, Huawei, Microsoft, and LG tried similar ideas and none got much traction.

          I’m not sure it’s actually a good idea even now that phones have enough CPU and RAM for an adequate desktop experience. It’s certainly not a good idea running Android as we know it, where apps are data silos and have UIs that don’t cleanly transition from the palmtop experience to the desktop experience.

      • notthebees@reddthat.com
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        Quite a few phones have desktop modes now, and they work alright. I wish my phone had it. My iphone 16 supports USB dp alt mode but only a direct mirror.

    • notthebees@reddthat.com
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      There’s a few Android phones that have it, old and new. I have an iPhone 16 at the moment and while it works with a dp-alt mode dock, it only mirrors the screen and nothing else. I think there’s some things you can do to trick the phone into enabling stage manager and other ipad features.

      • djdarren@piefed.social
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        I’m still salty that Apple crooked my 6th gen iPad mini by not allowing Stage Manager on it to allow it to work with an external display. Like the iPhone, it just mirrors, which is bullshit. I don’t even care if it shuts off the built in screen because it can only run one display, I just wish it could be used as a portable computer.

        iPadOS 26 brought actual Stage Manager to it, but it’s a gimped version that still doesn’t work properly with an external display.

        As a result, I don’t really use my iPad these days.

  • Blackmist@feddit.uk
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    1 month ago

    The Wii. Previous gen console specs. Silly gimmick controller. Best selling peripheral was a step.

    Most popular shit in the history of everything.

  • Zealotte@lemmy.zip
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    “Nintendo should admit defeat and focus on making games for other platforms and mobile devices.” - Me, after the Wii U and a little before the Switch launched.

    • Broadfern@lemmy.world
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      I thought the switch was gonna end up with the same depressing library as the 3DS, if that’s any consolation.

      • Janx@piefed.social
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        1 month ago
        • The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D
        • Fire Emblem: Awakening
        • The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds
        • Shovel Knight
        • Super Mario 3D Land
        • Pushmo
        • The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask 3D

        I guess we can’t be friends. ☹️

        • Broadfern@lemmy.world
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          I have the 2DSXL, and have played about half of those. I was just sad it was primarily limited to mostly online (Pushmo’s servers are dead) and first-party titles. I was a GBA/DS kid so expected wider variety beyond that.

          It’s a fantastic little device for modding though!

  • ebolapie@lemmy.world
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    1 month ago

    I wrote a term paper once about how twitter would enable citizen journalism and lead to a more informed public and a healthier, more direct democracy. I got an A.

    I was a pretty huge fan of Zune and I still miss it.

      • lichtmetzger@discuss.tchncs.de
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        1 month ago

        And the Sidewinder Force Feedback Pro joystick. Came out in 1998 and people still build USB adapters today to make it work in modern racing games and flight simulators.

        Using light sensors was wild back then, the successor didn’t use them anymore because they cheaped out.

  • AbouBenAdhem@lemmy.world
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    In the late nineties, I thought the availability of online knowledge would make universities obsolete.

  • Broadfern@lemmy.world
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    I thought Apple/most smartphones would never move to USB-C, or away from proprietary chargers. Pleasantly surprised - thank you EU.

    I thought wireless controllers were going to be a fad, or at least garbage in their reliability/connection strength.

    I thought VR was finally going to take off as the next major gaming experience when the Vive came out. Unfortunately it remains niche.

    I thought Linux was going to be unusable for gaming/mainstream use cases for much longer, but Valve has made huge strides on that with Proton, and OSS devs making things like Heroic for other stores has been awesome. Also shoutout to KDE for, well, everything. Krita, KDE connect, Plasma. LibreOffice has also come a very long way.

    I also thought we’d never get another steam controller. Also pleasantly surprised.

    • tal@lemmy.todayOP
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      I think another major factor for Linux gaming beyond Valve was a large shift by game developers to using widely-used game engines. A lot of the platform portability work happened at that level, so was spread across many games. Writing games that could run on both personal computers and personal-computer-like consoles with less porting work became a goal. And today, some games also have releases on mobile platforms.

      When I started using Linux in the late 1990s, the situation was wildly different on that front.

  • porcoesphino@mander.xyz
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    I thought cameras on phones were a gimmick. To be fair, they were pretty low quality back then but I still use it to remind myself not to be too overconfident because boy was I wrong.

  • Meron35@lemmy.world
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    I never thought tablet computers would become popular among the mainstream public.

    When the iPad first came out, it was functionally worse than even the cheap netbooks, and I didn’t see much purpose in the larger screen with phones getting bigger and bigger every year. Wireless display was also already available, so I envisioned people would just cast content to a TV if they really wanted a bigger screen. Even reading articles etc seemed to be already covered by eReaders, which were already available for half a decade by the time the iPad released.

    Little did I know how brain rotted people would become.

    Tbh I personally still don’t see the utility in most tablets, except in specific niches like in digital note taking/drawing, or industrial cases where it becomes a glorified HUD.

    • Trainguyrom@reddthat.com
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      except in specific niches like in digital note taking/drawing, or industrial cases where it becomes a glorified HUD.

      The one niche that they’re probably the biggest is the “I just need a public facing web browser in this spot”

      Its really hard to beat a locked down iPad for that usecase, both from a financial perspective (~$250 hardware cost for a lowest-tier iPad was the price I was seeing when ordering and provisioning them for this usecase) and from a management perspective (join it to the MDM and by nature of being an iPad, even if they get out of the browser window its really hard to cause trouble, basically 0 malware risk and iOS has far less obtrusive updates than Windows) plus from a support perspective you can simply walk users through rebooting them and swap the hardware if it needs more than a reboot

    • QuandaleDingle@lemmy.world
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      Yeah, I think tablets are cool, but if they were full-fledged Windows/Linux computers with mobile app compatibility, they’d be absolutely incredible.

      • Zak@lemmy.world
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        You can do that today with a Linux tablet and Waydroid. It’s more like running the Android apps in a VM than something really well integrated with the Linux environment, but perfect is the enemy of good.

    • Zak@lemmy.world
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      I got my first tablet this year after a long time as a skeptic. It runs Arch, BTW.

      Most of the time it has a keyboard attached and I use it like a laptop, but it’s nice to be able to watch movies on flights during taxi, takeoff, and landing because tablets and phones are allowed, not laptops.

      Gnome is really nice on a touchscreen aside from the terrible onscreen keyboard. KDE is a little rougher, but its onscreen keyboard is decent.

    • Trainguyrom@reddthat.com
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      I remember thinking similarly. Specifically “well duh you’ll just be hitting buttons with your face on calls with those dang touchscreen phones” except it turned out I spend way less time on phonecalls than circa 2006 me could have ever imagined, and also the proximity sensor blanking the screen and blocking input works really good (and even did back in the early 2010s when I got my first smartphone)

  • northernlights@lemmy.today
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    1 month ago

    “Bitcoin will never take”. I mined a few at the very beginning when it was easy, out of curiosity, and didn’t bother backing up because it was useless anyway. Ahem.

    • Jeffool @lemmy.world
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      I bought and moved like 1 in late 2013 when it spiked just to play with it and see how it worked, out of curiosity about the tech. (And soon after, mined Dogecoin on Reddit when it started, and we all began tipping like crazy because it was fun and funny.) I made a few bucks off the BTC and kinda regretted not holding it longer. Then cut to a decade later… Sheesh. I may be more sour on the tech now, but damn I’m not so crazy as to not regret selling it.

      • QuiteQuickQum@lemmy.world
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        Us early Doge sponsored a NASCAR driver! I have 30-40k locked in an unused wallet. It’s amazingly stupid that’s a thing. It was never meant to have value!

  • orclev@lemmy.world
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    In the late 90s I saw a piece demonstrating an optical 3d storage system that had a capacity about an order of magnitude greater than the at the time brand new HD DVD and Bluray discs. I assumed this clearly superior format that already had a working demo would obviously kill other optical media. Turns out nobody could figure out how to manufacture one at a price anybody was willing to spend.

  • Acidbath@lemmy.world
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    I hate microsoft but really liked windows phone and cortana. Something about tiles made a lot of sense and the keyboard was clean af.

    I am very sure they were the first to have url bar above the keyboard in their browser WHICH WAS VERY HELPFUL BECAUSE YOUR FINGERS ARE ALREADY AT THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE PHONE LIKE OMFG.

    like there was so many little things they did that just worked and worked well. rip windows phone, i will tell my grandkids about you.