cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/48425357

[Original source in German.]

The Kremlin is manipulating official statistics to hide the consequences of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND, Bundesnachrichtendienst).

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Russia tries to counteract the impression of painful losses with glossy figures: The BND has intelligence reports that the deficit of the federal budget for 2025 has increased by 41.8% higher than officially stated, corresponding to 3.7% of GDP.

“This shows the true costs that the Kremlin is approving of for its war of aggression against Ukraine, and that will continue to work for years to come,” the BND report says.

“This further erodes the trustworthiness of official statistics – Russia as an investment location poses unpredictable risks. PUTIN’s calculus of returning Russia to its old size cannot work out this way.”

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The German Intel writes:

Further sanctions – for example against supporters of Russia in third countries or the so-called shadow fleet – and their consistent implementation have the potential to further increase the price of PUTIN’s war of aggression: while revenues dwindle, the costs of maintaining the status quo (for example, for circumvention measures) increase. The future viability of the Russian economy continues to erode.

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If comprehensive countermeasures are not taken, this will deepen the structural problems of the Russian economy, which is highly dependent on the energy sector, in the long term and threaten to become chronic.

Russian Oil Industry Under Pressure

The Russian oil industry not only suffers from the high tax burden with which Putin finances his war. Drone strikes and sanctions are also causing Russia’s main currency provider to erode. Thanks to Western sanctions, Russia has to sell its oil at a significant discount at the world market price.

And India – alongside China the last remaining major customer – has already significantly reduced its oil imports due to US pressure. It is above all the extraterritorial US sanctions that are causing Russia’s revenue from oil and LNG exports to collapse sharply.

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