This is all going to be over within six months one way or another. The dynamics of this might factor in somewhere along the line but there is a 0% chance that we get to a year from now in the same state of affairs that exist today.
Why would you think that? Ukraine is doing okay now but they have a lot of ground to win. Russia has made it clear they don’t care about the cost to then and so they will grind on so long as they have any land, and maybe longer
That won’t last and it is just a drop in the bucket compared to what they’d need. Also, that is just economic, russia is on a death spiral everywhere else too.
Total Military & Security Budget: For 2026, Russia has budgeted approximately 16.84 trillion rubles ($217 billion) for “national defense” and “national security.”
Daily Estimated Spending: This equates to roughly $595 million per day spent on the military and internal security apparatus combined.
Daily Windfall: Russia is earning an additional $150 million to $550 million per day in fossil fuel revenues compared to its February averages.
Price Advantage: The global shortage has allowed Russia to narrow the “sanctions discount” on its Urals crude. Urals is currently trading around $62 per barrel, comfortably above the Kremlin’s budget target of $59.
The Strait will be economically unviable for 2-5 years minimum now they’ve laid mines, and their profits are only going to increase as Europe inevitably has to start buying more from them.
You don’t need 100 mines to stop trade; you only need the possibility of one.
Full minesweeping operation across contested waters: 6–12 months minimum under favorable conditions
Insurance markets require a sustained incident-free period: 6–12 months after clearance
2 years is a floor estimate. 2-5 the likely range, it could go higher. Proxy actors funded by Russia retain the capability to re-mine at any point, restarting the clock
If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, the US is the only supplier with enough scale to even attempt to fill the gap. To get that gas, Europe would have to outbid Asia. This will result in energy rationing & industrial shutdown.
This is all going to be over within six months one way or another. The dynamics of this might factor in somewhere along the line but there is a 0% chance that we get to a year from now in the same state of affairs that exist today.
I thought the same last year, and the year before and the year before…
And before that, I didn’t think Russia would be willing and or dumb enough to invade.
Why would you think that? Ukraine is doing okay now but they have a lot of ground to win. Russia has made it clear they don’t care about the cost to then and so they will grind on so long as they have any land, and maybe longer
Yeah but everything is in the toilet for russia, and they can’t claim anything else, so I’d just dismiss what the kremlin says.
It was until very recently. Nice windfall from oil price spike should give them plenty of funds
That won’t last and it is just a drop in the bucket compared to what they’d need. Also, that is just economic, russia is on a death spiral everywhere else too.
Total Military & Security Budget: For 2026, Russia has budgeted approximately 16.84 trillion rubles ($217 billion) for “national defense” and “national security.”
Daily Estimated Spending: This equates to roughly $595 million per day spent on the military and internal security apparatus combined.
Daily Windfall: Russia is earning an additional $150 million to $550 million per day in fossil fuel revenues compared to its February averages.
Price Advantage: The global shortage has allowed Russia to narrow the “sanctions discount” on its Urals crude. Urals is currently trading around $62 per barrel, comfortably above the Kremlin’s budget target of $59.
The Strait will be economically unviable for 2-5 years minimum now they’ve laid mines, and their profits are only going to increase as Europe inevitably has to start buying more from them.
8 (potential) mines and you jump to conclusions…
2-5 years? Why not 1 to 100?
Believing the russian states numbers too lol!
And europe “has” to buy oil from russia, you sure believe the kremlin propaganda.
Lol
You don’t need 100 mines to stop trade; you only need the possibility of one.
Full minesweeping operation across contested waters: 6–12 months minimum under favorable conditions
Insurance markets require a sustained incident-free period: 6–12 months after clearance
2 years is a floor estimate. 2-5 the likely range, it could go higher. Proxy actors funded by Russia retain the capability to re-mine at any point, restarting the clock
If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, the US is the only supplier with enough scale to even attempt to fill the gap. To get that gas, Europe would have to outbid Asia. This will result in energy rationing & industrial shutdown.
Focusing on the only point where you’re not totally off the rocker won’t help lol. A shame because those kind of discussions are usually interesting.
Putin is losing and there is nothing anyone can do more than prolong the suffering.