For serious discussion - like your thoughts beyond simple “Russians go home” platitudes. What even is a russian theory of victory at this point?

First off - this STILL seems to be a war where their only goal is conquest and capitulation of the Ukrainian government to a Russian puppet one. But - how do they intend realize that?

  1. Terroristic bombings against civilian targets from standoff distance has never, ever been successful at defeating an industrial society. It’s way, way way too expensive to maintain and doesn’t hold ground.

  2. Russia’s mechanized forces in mass have largely been wiped out and is cost-ineffective compared to Ukraine’s ability to stop them with drones.

  3. Russia’s infantry tactics is literally sending in small infiltration teams into forward areas, where they are eventually either droned, sniped, mined, shelled or outright counter attacked and killed.

Ukraine seems capable of increasingly automating their defense AND assualt forces to be less manpower intensive, and able to trade a little bit of land temporarily until they can kill the infiltration teams that bum rush positions in cars, motorbikes or on foot. The latter is NOT a serious or effective strategy for occupying and pacifying conquered land.

In the big picture - Russia seems to just be prolonging the slaughter and hoping to be given something in return to make it stop. But - that doesn’t seem likely to work. No serious minded thinkers expect Russia to honor any agreement, so why WOULDN’T Ukraine logically look at the stiatuion and conclude that the ONLY way to stop future russian aggression is to bleed out their army until there is fundamental change in Russian political leadership.

How does Russia ‘win’ this war? It’s hard to see. Things feel very endgame, but also stagnant since life of their soldiers means absolutely nothing to the Kremlin, when they probably know the alternative is that stopping the war leads quickly and directly to total domestic collapse.

Your thoughts please.

  • TwinkleToes@lemmy.caOP
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    1
    ·
    6 days ago

    think that this war is in stalemate position for russia. It cant win, but continues to fight just to delay inevitable loss.

    It does not matter whether huilo ends or continues war. Economics and society will collapse because of sanctions and being tired of putin.

    Ukraine, while does not have ability to actually win back on front, can cause disaters in the back, and keep defensive positions with continued support from allies.

    Rose @lemmy.zip to Ukraine@sopuli.xyz • What Exactly is the Russian Theory of Victory At This Point? In the short term, it’s probably what Russia says it is: getting the territories that it wrote into the constitution. Stopping at the areas currently in control would also be acceptable, as that’s already more than Russia had before 2022. Then it’s going to be about regrouping for new attacks and invasions, which don’t have to be aimed at Ukraine. Even if attacking Europe were out of the picture, there are former Soviet countries to its south.

    Sure, but those states have already aligned themselves to China (Kazazhstan and the rest of the Central Asian Republics), Turkey (Azeris) or otherwise disavowed themselves from Russia like Armenia. Georgia and Belraus are pale consolation prizes for what was a one-time shot at restoring the great russian empire.