NEW YORK (AP) — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday.
Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide.
Such predictions imply the belief that the Federal Reserve can pull off the delicate balancing act of slowing the economy just enough through high interest rates to get inflation under control, without snuffing out its growth completely.
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High rates work to slow inflation by making borrowing more expensive and hurting prices for stocks and other investments. The combination typically slows spending and starves inflation of its fuel. So far, the job market has remained remarkably solid despite high interest rates, and the unemployment rate sat at a low 3.9% in October.
Rent and housing are under a supply crunch, unless the population stops growing, or construction speed doubles, nothing is going to drop prices.
The rich people already buying homes now would just buy the new homes. Even brand new homes in my area are selling for almost half a million when just before Covid they’d be like 280k or 320k. People not to stop pretending like housing a supply issue and not a corporations-and-rich-people-buying-everything-up issue. When new construction comes up with these ridiculous prices, the people who already own multiple properties just buy it up because they can already easily afford to. All you need is to be able to get a few properties and after that the money makes itself which is why all of the sudden everyone’s interested in real estate the last few years. Builders don’t care about it because there are still companies and people able to pay these obnoxious prices. Don’t even get me started on how everyone thinks they’re a genius for realizing how profitable buying homes to use as Airbnbs is.