Investment giant Goldman Sachs published a research paper
Goldman Sachs researchers also say that
It’s not a research paper; it’s a report. They’re not researchers; they’re analysts at a bank. This may seem like a nit-pick, but journalists need to (re-)learn to carefully distinguish between the thing that scientists do and corporate R&D, even though we sometimes use the word “research” for both. The AI hype in particular has been absolutely terrible for this. Companies have learned that putting out AI “research” that’s just them poking at their own product but dressed up in a science-lookin’ paper leads to an avalanche of free press from lazy credulous morons gorging themselves on the hype. I’ve written about this problem a lot. For example, in this post, which is about how Google wrote a so-called paper about how their LLM does compared to doctors, only for the press to uncritically repeat (and embellish on) the results all over the internet. Had anyone in the press actually fucking bothered to read the paper critically, they would’ve noticed that it’s actually junk science.
A big part of the problem – and this is not a new issue, goes back decades – is that a lot of terms in AI-land don’t correspond to concrete capabilities, so it’s easy to claim that you do X when X is generally-perceived to be a much-more-sophisticated thing than what you’re actually doing, even if your thing technically qualifies as X by some definition.
None of this in any way conflicts with my position that AI has tremendous potential. But if people are investing money without having a solid understanding of what they’re investing in, there are going to be people out there misrepresenting their product.
Same with all cryptocurrencies having a “white paper”, as if it was anything other than marketing crap formatted like a scientific paper.
It started as actual unpublished technical descriptions of underlying technology.
Yeah, I’ve seen some good ones. Sad to hear the term has gone to shit.
Go-dAmn Sachs is wrong often, but in this I think they’re on point. Learned from the Crypto insanity.
Broken clock etc.
And yet, worth 150 billion.
“valued at” != “worth”
It’s costing them money, and they’re not sure they’re going to get it back.
They’re not
In other news: water is wet and bears shit in the woods
Sometimes that bear shits in my yard. And then the little asshole trashes my garden. I might buy a tag and shoot the son of a bitch this fall if he keeps it up…
Recently there was one in British Columbia that locked itself in a hot car, freaked out and tore up the interior completely, and then had to be rescued by the cops.
Plus water isn’t wet, it makes things wet.
including other water molecules?
AI has been overhyped since it first played tic-tac-toe in the 1950s. One definition of “AI” is: “an algorithm that people don’t understand… yet” 🤷
The stuff they’re calling ai now is just predictive text algorithms. I really can’t wait to stop hearing about this because it is all artificial with no intelligence.
You know it’s funny how many times I’ve heard that “it’s just predictive text algorithms!” As a dismissal that I’m beginning to think we’re just predictive text algorithms.
Yep. All the reasons cited could pretty much apply to a person as well. GPT-4 is pretty damn smart by every reasonable measure.
LLMs have been shown to have emergent math capabilities (that are the opposite of what is trained) so you’re simplifying way too much. Yes a lot is just “predictive text” but there’s a ton of “this was not the training and we don’t know how it knows this” as well.
Not exactly.
LLMs are predictive-associative token algorithms with a degree of randomness and some self-reflection. A key aspect is that anything can be a token, they can self-feed their own output, creating the basis for a thought cycle, as well as output control input for other algorithms. It remains to be seen whether the core of “(human) intelligence” is much more than that, and by how much.
Stable Diffusion is a random image generator that refines its output based on perceptual traits associated with a prompt. It’s like a “lite” version of human dreaming, only with a super-human training set. Kind of an “uncanny valley” version of dreaming.
It just so happens that both algorithms have been showcased at about the same time, and it’s the first time we can build a “set and forget” AI system that can both make decisions about its own next steps, and emulate human creativity… which has driven the hype into overdrive.
I don’t think we’ll stop hearing about it, but I do think there is much more to be done, and it’s pretty much impossible to feed any of the algorithms with human experience data, without registering at least one human learning cycle, as in over many years from inside a humanoid robot.
If there’s one job I think AI could definitely replace, it’s crafting reports by investment bankers.
That is so funny.
chatgpt: “Artificial Intelligence (AI) represents a transformative investment opportunity, characterized by robust growth potential and broad applicability across industries. The AI market, projected to exceed $190 billion by 2025, offers substantial upside in sectors such as healthcare, finance, automotive, and e-commerce. As businesses increasingly adopt AI to enhance efficiency and innovation, associated firms are poised for significant returns. Key investment areas include machine learning, natural language processing, robotics, and AI-driven analytics. Despite risks like regulatory challenges and ethical concerns, the strategic deployment of capital in AI technologies holds promise for long-term value creation. Diversification within this space is advisable to mitigate volatility.”
Man I love it when billionaire assholes finally figure out what the rest of the world has been saying since the beginning.
I mean, the rest of the world has been hyping AI since the start, no? Most companies are not run by billionaires.
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Goldman Sachs has not invested in AI.
Their statement is factual though, on all three points. nVidia’s share price alone should alarm people. It’s the new dot com bubble.
It’s a gold rush and NVIDIA is selling the shovels
If Goldman Sachs said that, then most likely the opposite is true.
I’m surprised how everyone here believes what that capitalist company is saying, just because it fits their own narrative of AI being useless.
I mean, ask pretty much anyone familiar with the workings of AI who doesn’t have a vested interest, and they’ll say the same thing. Goldman is right.
I’d also say that it does have applications, but it’s going to take a moment for all the bullshit artists to move on to the next thing so the grown-ups can work. It’s a bit like graphene research circa-2011, although it’s way more proven than graphene ever was.
They might also say that the moment it does work reliably we should be scared, although it’s fair to say there’s many experts who take the obvious stance.
If Goldman Sachs said that, than most likely the opposite is true.
What makes you say that?
There are studies that suggest that the information investment firms publish is not based on what they believe to be true, but on what they want others, including their competitors, believe to be true. And in many cases for serving their investment strategy, it benefits them to publish the opposite of what they believe to be true.
Intentions aside, it’s just some independent research that anyone can review and critique. If the research is bad then it should be pointed out and won’t be taken seriously, undermining any influence from Goldman Sachs now and in the future
Goldman Sachs would not publish it that prominantly if it didn’t help their internal goals. And their intention is certainly not to help the public or their competitors. There are independent studies of some topics that are all well made and get to opposite conclusions. Invedtment firms just do what serves them. I wouldn’t trust anything that they publish.
“will this large spend ever pay off?”
That’s the neat part: it won’t!
Hopefully this will have an impact
They’re just not invested in it yet. Once their money is in it, they’ll suddenly say it’s the best thing in the world.
Haha… They always do this trick.
It ain’t a revolution until their bags are filled and they selling it to you!
Bitcoin is a classic example.
About damn time the narrative starts to change.
Oh no, you mean the big “smart” money investors that manage to crash the economy every decade or so and ruin every business they touch are gonna leave generative AI alone? Oh nooo. How will the science progress without Goldman Sachs’s guiding hand?
Good riddance.
D’oh!
