Summary
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron held a call to discuss the potential implications of Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency for Europe.
The leaders pledged to strengthen cooperation for a “more united, stronger, more sovereign Europe” in light of this possibility. Macron emphasized a commitment to European sovereignty while maintaining cooperation with the U.S. Additionally, German and French defense ministers plan to meet to coordinate on defense policies.
Trump’s ambiguous stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine and his critical view of NATO burden-sharing raise concerns in Europe about future U.S.-Europe relations.
Realistically, I doubt the western european public opinions are ready to accept 20 year old kids coming home in a coffin. If we put boots on the ground, I expect the war to be more deadly than recent middle-east operations.
So while we could kick of Russia ass, I don’t think we’re ready to pay the political price, at least for Ukraine.
This is more about ramping up domestic arms production to fill the gap that is going to come from US production no longer going to Ukraine.
Ironically I think policy support would have been much easier had we put boots on the ground right away. There was initially enormous support for Ukraine, and sending out own soldiers would have given voters a continued vested interest in the war.
Not saying the outcome would have been better, and there is always the threat of nuclear war. However, it would totally changed the course and focus of elections, and my impression is that voters like it when politicians take risks, even if it doesn’t pan out (and even if it’s suicidally stupid).
Western Europe, yep, there’s not much appetite for that. Southern, neither, Northern, I wouldn’t count them out, Baltics will look to the North, Central (without Germany)… basically the only reason Poland didn’t put boots on the ground yet is NATO.
The French might get involved for dignity’s sake, but on a backfoot – special forces, long-range operations. Also sending French MREs is always a good idea.
EDIT: Oh, Italy. Meloni hates Putin’s guts, the FDI may go in even without appetite because well the “post” in “post-fascist” doesn’t mean that they’ve got rid of fascists’ admiration for war, just the more obvious self-defeating aspects. Struggles of national sovereignty seem to be right up their alley. Greece is too broke either way and Turkey will be on Turkey’s side.
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