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Cake day: February 24th, 2024

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  • Not sure if you can equate their governments to modern right wing movements. I think they would be more centrist economically and leftest socially on the modern scale, while being more right with politically until much later.

    Its also worth noting they had massive US aid assistance to drive infrastructure investment and social programs for the first few decades.



  • My rule for older hardware, before trusting the ZFS fault reporting, I would follow the following steps.

    (Note these are homelabber steps and not what I would do in the enterprise, where risk and time is a lot more expensive than replacing hardware)

    1. Check the Smart data of the drive. If it reports the drive as faulty, replace it.

    2. Zpool clear the error and see if it comes back. Sometimes drive errors are not cause by the drive itself

    3. Reseat the drive and the cables between the motherboard and the drive. Clear errors after this step. Especially with older hardware and it having travelled from its previous owner to you, something might not be seated properly.

    4. Move the drive to another drive bay, or swap it with another drive. If the errors move with the drive, the drive is faulty. If the errors move to the bay, you probably have a good drive, but a faulty drive bay/cable.








  • Thank you for raising these points. Progress has certainly been made and in specific applications, AI tools has resulted in breakthoughs.

    The question is wheither it was transformative, or just incremental improvements, i.e. a faster horse.

    I would also argue that there is a significant distinction between predictive AI systems in the application of analysis and the use of LLM. The former has been responsible for the majority of the breakthroughs in the application of AI, yet the latter is getting all the recent attention and investment.

    Its part of the reason why I think the current AI bubble is holding back AI development. So much investment is being made for the sake of extracting wealth from individials and investment vehicles, rather than in something that will be beneficial in the long term.

    Predictive AI (old AI) overall is certainly going to be a transformative technology as it has already proven over the last 40 years.

    I would argue what most people call AIs today, LLMs are not going to be transformative. It does a very good imitation of human language, but it completely lacks the ability to reason beyond the information it is trained on. There has been some progress with building specific modules for completing certain analytical tasks, like mathematics and statistical analysis, but not in the ability to reason.

    It might be possible to do that through brute force in a sufficiently large LLM, but I strongly suspect we lack the global computing power by a few orders of magnatude before we get to a mammilian brain and the number of connections it can make.

    But even if you could, we also need to improve power generation and efficiency by a few orders of magnatude as well.

    I would love to see the AI bubble pop, so that the truely transformative work can progress, rather than the current “how do we extract wealth” focus of AI. So much of what is happening now is the same as the dot com bubble, but at a much larger scale.





  • Damn, I keep forgetting that the iphone X was already 5 years ago. 10 years ago then. There has been so little improvements in phones in the ladt 5 years, it all just blurs together.

    I think the point is, we used to have phones that were 9mm+ thick. Iphone 4s and iphone 5c from Apple and Samsung Galaxy S3 and motorola G phones were all that thickness. They even had replacable batteries and expandable storage. Some of those were even waterproof despite all of that.

    I think the main driver of impractical thinness has been marketing, planned obselecence and cost savings.


  • You are probably correct that the Trump government is returning to the “good old days”, so I concede that point around their current policies.

    The predominant strategy from the US and China has been to leverage corruption in regional governments to obtain control of strategic assest like ports, transport hubs, mineral resouces etc, and then place those assets under the control of a few party adjacent corporations. Thus they extract those resources over local companies in the region. After making sure that the local politcal elite gets their miniscule cut of course.

    Economic neocolonialism. Far less shooting and a lot more wealth extraction from a country.