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Cake day: June 23rd, 2023

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  • Apparently it’s a soft paywall. Here’s the text:

    The atrocities committed by Russian forces in the town of Bucha some 18 months ago unveiled to an appalled world both the depraved brutality of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and the determination of Ukrainians to resist Vladimir Putin’s armies.

    That resistance has since taken myriad forms but among the more singular is the response of one unnamed Bucha resident whose reply to the mass-killings in his hometown was to sit down and use a decade’s experience as a materials scientist to find a way to help Ukraine’s soldiers hit back at the Kremlin.

    The result is the development of an extraordinary “invisibility cloak” which is now being used to hide Ukrainian troops and equipment from sensors on Russian drones ceaselessly patrolling the frontlines as Kyiv seeks to seize back territory in its ongoing counteroffensive.

    Such is the promise of the space-age sheeting – known as “Phantom Skin” – that it is now being marketed to western militaries as part of a suite of Ukrainian military innovations developed by force of necessity since the start of the war to undermine and counter Moscow’s advantage in troop numbers and materiel.

    In a tale which epitomises the doggedly improvisational nature of much of that invention, Spets Techno Export (STE), the Ukrainian government agency helping to produce the “life-saving” invisibility material, told i that its inventor, who does not wish to be identified, had set to work after experiencing at first hand the cruelty of the Russian take-over of Bucha.

    The ‘invisibility cloak’ has been used to hide wounded Ukrainian troops from Russian drones prior to evacuation. (Photo: STE) The satellite town of some 37,000 people to the north west of Kyiv was occupied on the third day of the invasion in February 2022, triggering what has become one of the most emblematic and grim episodes of the war as Russian troops targeted civilians, setting up an apparent torture facility in a summer camp basement and leaving bodies littering the streets.

    In the wake of the month-long occupation, some 458 bodies were recovered from the town, the vast majority of which had suffered gunshot wounds. Many showed signs of torture and mutilation. According to the United Nations, at least 73 civilians suffered summary execution in a succession of atrocities which remain the subject of a war crimes investigation.

    From amid such horror, the developer of Phantom Skin emerged with a determination to do his bit. A STE spokesperson told i: “The technology was developed after the invasion by Russian forces and the occupation experienced by the developer in Bucha as a contribution to resisting Putin.”

    The result is an opaque black plasticised material, similar in a feel to a camping groundsheet, which has the remarkable property of shielding the heat signal emitted by troops or their equipment and thereby appearing “invisible” to thermal and infrared sensors on Russian drones and other equipment by making the soldiers have the same temperature signal as surrounding vegetation or buildings.

    Once covered with a cagoule or shelter made from the “skin”, soldiers can effectively disappear from the sensors on the feared quadcopters being used at an industrial scale by both sides in the conflict to monitor enemy frontlines and trenches 24/7 to drop munitions or call in artillery strikes.

    Unsurprisingly, the precise composition of Phantom Skin is a closely-guarded secret but it uses a coating of nanotechnology compounds including graphene, the carbon “wonder material” which among other properties can mask or absorb heat signatures.

    The sheeting has proved particularly useful in concealing Ukrainian casualties who cannot be immediately evacuated from the frontlines for fear of detection.

    The STE spokesperson said: “There have been cases of using Phantom Skin not only for its intended purpose such as masking soldiers but also as a cover for wounded soldiers to shield them from the ‘all-seeing’ eye of nightvision cameras installed on drones before evacuation from the battlefield. The gratitude of the wounded warriors saved with the help of Phantom Skin is especially valuable.”

    Thermal cloaking materials have been in development by various defence producers for a number of years. BAE Systems, the British defence giant, has developed a system of hexagonal tiles which can be fitted to the exterior of vehicles from tanks to helicopters to dramatically reduce their thermal signature.

    But producing materials which can absorb or otherwise deflect the body heat of individual soldiers has become increasingly urgent as the modern battlefield becomes saturated with sensors and cheap technology such as quadcopters that can detect the smallest movements day or night.

    A Russian defence research academy earlier this summer unveiled what it said was its own thermal cloaking clothing for use by snipers and troops operating in Ukraine, although it is unclear whether the product has reached frontlines. Producers from the United States to Switzerland and India are also working on similar wearable technology.

    But few, if any, will have been exposed in the sort of real-life battle conditions in which Phantom Skin has been put to use, providing STE with a useful selling point when it comes to Ukraine’s growing efforts to market its wartime innovations, including Phantom Skin, abroad.

    The invisibility cloak was earlier this month among products showcased at a Ukrainian government stand at the Defence and Security Equipment International (DSEI) event in London’s Docklands, one of the world’s biggest arms fairs.

    STE declined to discuss whether it had received orders for Phantom Skin or any of the other weapons systems it had on display at DSEI, including a version of the “MAGURA” robotic boat drone widely believed to have been used in Ukraine’s successful attacks on the Russian navy in the Black Sea as well as the Kerch Bridge in Crimea.

    But it is understood by i that the innovative Ukrainian weaponry is attracting serious interest from Western and other militaries as governments worldwide open their wallets and boost defence spending. According to one measure, global military expenditure reached an all-time high of £1.8tn last year – equivalent to the entire GDP of Italy – with Europe recording the steepest annual increase in three decades.

    As one Western diplomat attending DSEI put it: “What you have to remember is that Ukraine was for many years a defence production hub of the Soviet Union. It had some of the best minds behind the Iron Curtain when it came to missile or aviation technology and that legacy never left.

    “The war with Russia is reviving something within the Ukrainian DNA when it comes to innovating in the military sphere. If you can attach a label saying ‘proven to blow up Russian warships’ or ‘camouflage against Kremlin drones’ to things then they are going to attract interest on the international market. For Ukraine, the invasion is a tragedy, but for its defence [sector] it is also a selling point.”

    In the meantime, Ukrainian troops are continuing to explore the capabilities of their protective “Phantom Skin” born from the atrocities of Bucha, with each 4.5sq m section of sheeting weighing less than a can of fizzy drink and also acting as a thermal blanket as the war heads into its second, bitter winter.

    As the STE representative put it: “The most rewarding aspect is receiving words of thanks from users at the hottest points of military operations. These words of gratitude serve as true testimonials to the life-saving protection it provides.”

    Ukraine’s home-made front: DIY cruise missiles and revolutionary boat drones

    ‘Trembita’ DIY cruise missile:

    Named after a type of traditional mountain horn, the Trembita is a rocket system designed to be built in a basic workshop for about £2,500 – a fraction of the cost of a conventional cruise missile. The system is fueled using diesel or unleaded petrol and can carry a 25kg warhead. Volunteers intend to build enough missiles to launch salvoes of “dummy missiles” to overwhelm Russian air defences to be followed by projectiles carrying an electronic guidance system, costing a further £5,000.

    ‘MAGURA’ maritime drone

    Ukraine has been credited with almost singlehandedly inventing a new type of naval warfare by developing stealthy boat drones capable of attacking over a distance of several hundred kilometres. The MAGURA drone and similar vessels have been used in attacks on Russian naval vessels and the Crimean port of Sevastopol, the headquarters of Moscow’s Black Sea fleet. Kyiv has also developed a class of underwater “torpedo” drones which may have been used in high-profile attacks on the Kerch Crossing between Crimea and the Russian mainland.

    ‘Punisher’ drone

    As well as importing large numbers of commercial drones, Kyiv has invested heavily in a new domestic drone industry, producing Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for purposes from patrolling frontlines to flying deep into Russian airspace. The Punisher drone, which was displayed at DSEI this month, carries a 2.5kg payload over a distance of up to 45km at a speed of 180km/h. It can be rearmed in just three minutes.

    Cahal Milmo


  • Here you go.

    Ukraine faces a long war. A change of course is needed Its backers should pray for a speedy victory—but plan for a long struggle

    Sep 21st 2023

    image: The Economist Listen to this story. Enjoy more audio and podcasts on iOS or Android.

    The war in Ukraine has repeatedly confounded expectations. It is now doing so again. The counter-offensive that began in June was based on the hope that Ukrainian soldiers, equipped with modern Western weapons and after training in Germany, would recapture enough territory to put their leaders in a strong position at any subsequent negotiations.

    This plan is not working. Despite heroic efforts and breaches of Russian defences near Robotyne, Ukraine has liberated less than 0.25% of the territory that Russia occupied in June. The 1,000km front line has barely shifted. Ukraine’s army could still make a breakthrough in the coming weeks, triggering the collapse of brittle Russian forces. But on the evidence of the past three months, it would be a mistake to bank on that.

    Asking for a ceasefire or peace talks is pointless. Vladimir Putin shows no sign of wanting to negotiate and, even if he did, could not be trusted to stick to a deal. He is waiting for the West to tire and hoping that Donald Trump is re-elected. Mr Putin needs war to underpin his domestic dictatorship; any ceasefire would simply be a pause to re-arm and get ready to attack again. If Ukrainians stop fighting, they could lose their country.

    Both Ukraine and its Western supporters are coming to realise that this will be a grinding war of attrition. President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Washington this week for talks. “I have to be ready for the long war,” he told The Economist. But unfortunately, Ukraine is not yet ready; nor are its Western partners. Both are still fixated on the counter-offensive. They need to rethink Ukraine’s military strategy and how its economy is run. Instead of aiming to “win” and then rebuild, the goal should be to ensure that Ukraine has the staying power to wage a long war—and can thrive despite it.

    The first recalibration is military. Ukraine’s soldiers are exhausted; many of its finest have been killed. Despite conscription, it lacks the manpower to sustain a permanent large-scale counter-offensive. It needs to husband resources, and to change the game. New tactics and technologies can take the fight to Russia. Ukraine’s tech-savvy entrepreneurs are ramping up drone production: Ukrainian drones recently destroyed Russian warships; its missiles seem to have damaged a big air-defence system in Crimea. Many more strikes are likely, to degrade Russia’s military infrastructure and deny its navy sanctuary in the Black Sea. Don’t expect a knockout blow. Russia has also scaled up its drone production. Still, Ukraine can hit back when Russia bombs it, and perhaps even deter some attacks.

    Alongside this offensive capability, Ukraine needs to boost its resilience. As well as heavy weaponry, it needs help with maintenance to sustain a multi-year fight: humdrum repairs, reliable supplies of artillery and training. More than anything, a long war requires better air defence. Ukraine cannot thrive if Russia blasts infrastructure and civilians with impunity, as it has for the past 18 months. Kyiv is a surprisingly vibrant city because it has effective defences against non-stop aerial attacks. The same set-up is needed for other cities, which is why squadrons of f-16s and more missile-defence systems are essential.

    An economic recalibration is needed, too. That means fewer highfalutin plans for post-war reconstruction and more attention to boosting output and capital spending now. The economy has shrunk by a third and almost half of Ukraine’s budget is paid for with Western cash. In an odd kind of wartime Dutch disease the currency, the hryvnia, has strengthened even as private investment has plunged. With around 1m people bearing arms and millions having fled from the country, workers are scarce.

    Ukraine’s economy needs to shift from relying on aid to attracting investment, even as the conflict keeps raging. From making more arms to processing more of what it grows on its farms, Ukraine has plenty of potential. The challenge is to get local and foreign firms to invest more, and to lure more Ukrainians back to the calmer parts of the country in the west.

    Better security can help. The stronger Ukraine’s air defences, the lower the risk that a new factory will be blown up. The farther Russia’s navy is pushed back, the more safely exports can flow through Ukraine’s ports on the Black Sea. But economic reforms matter, too. More must be done to curb Ukraine’s long-standing corruption, with a priority on making the judiciary clean and impartial. And more action is needed to make doing business easier, from recognising qualifications that refugees have earned abroad to offering firms war insurance.

    All this requires political will from Ukraine, but also from its friends in the West. In the long term, the best guarantee of Ukraine’s security is nato membership. Short of that, partners have promised a web of bilateral security guarantees. Equally important is what the European Union can offer: not just cash, but the prospect of membership. It is not easy to nurture a flourishing economy while being barraged with explosives—even Israel never had to face such a powerful aggressor. But Ukraine, unlike Israel, could one day be integrated into the world’s richest economic bloc. A roadmap for EU accession over, say, a decade, with clear milestones, would offer hope to Ukrainians and accelerate economic reforms, just as the same promise galvanised much of eastern Europe in the 1990s.

    A new member of the club

    For that to happen a shift in mindset is needed in Europe. It has committed as much weaponry as America and far more financial aid. Yet it needs to step up further. If Mr Trump wins in 2024, he may cut back American military assistance. Even if he loses, Europe will eventually need to carry more of the burden. That means beefing up its defence industry and reforming the eu’s decision-making so it can handle more members.

    The stakes could hardly be higher. Defeat would mean a failed state on the eu’s flank and Mr Putin’s killing machine closer to more of its borders. Success would mean a new eu member with 30m well-educated people, Europe’s biggest army and a large agricultural and industrial base. Too many conversations about Ukraine are predicated on an “end to the war”. That needs to change. Pray for a speedy victory, but plan for a long struggle—and a Ukraine that can survive and thrive nonetheless.■

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