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Cake day: June 15th, 2023

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  • So like… I feel scared about the idea of like… just going for a walk all by myself…

    How about making a list of the things you think would possibly happen to you going for a walk by yourself that would justify being rationally scared. Then go through the list and consider even if each event is possibly, how probable is it? I think you’ll find that that things you’re most afraid of are the least likely to happen.

    Now as a comparison, make a list of all the things that could happen to you staying at home. Another list of all the things that could happen to you being driven to your destination. Assign realistic probabilities to each event. I’m guessing you’ll find that the probabilities of bad things on each of these three list will all look pretty equal. If they are equal, then going for a walk is no more dangerous that staying home or being driven somewhere.

    In a sense, if you’re afraid to go for a walk, you should be equally or more afraid of going for a drive or staying at home. As such, its not more dangerous to go for a walk than the other option.




  • Sadly, the number of times I’ve had to reboot windows two or three times to fix an issue lately has been increasing.

    This sounds like your organization’s group policy is too large or your connection from your machine to a domain controller hosting your GPOs is too slow. There’s a timeout period. If all the GPO contents are not pulled down to the local machine, it stops downloading them, and lets the user continue to the Desktop. However, for lots of orgs GPOs are how they deliver settings or software, so you have to reboot again and on the next login, it will pick up downloading where it left off. It could still timeout again if there is more GPO data (or the connection is too slow). So you may have to reboot multiple times, and on one of those it will finally complete the downloads, and then suddenly everything works because all the right data or settings from the GPOs are on the local machine.



  • When it all goes to fucking shit… then what? Line up on sides like a dodgeball team and States start rebelling like it’s 150 years ago? Isolated city-states locked out from Federal support and interference? Trump declares himself President for Life?

    It likely depends on what the actual circumstances of the violence is and the various responses from other government agencies.

    In other fascist government takeovers the key differentiator is the role/reaction of the military. Does the military support the fascist leader or does it oppose them? In 1922 Mussolini had full control and loyalty from the military while the government did not. Alternatively, while not in 2013 President of Egypt Mohamed Morsi, which had was facing protests by the populous for his actions was deposed by the military in what their opponents label a coup. In the 1930s in the USA, there was a fascist group called German American Bund. These were the American Nazi party you may have heard of of which famous pilot Charles Linbergh was a member of. There were supposed plans to execute a fascist takeover of the USA deposing FDR. The military stepped up protection of FDR, so we can infer that FDR had the support the military. German American Bund was investigated, many arrested, and it was dissolved.

    So in your theoretical, which way does the US military go?





  • And most of his inner circle… are similar nutbags. Very little of what they do has any rational thought, it’s just pure egotistical posturing.

    Its important to call these things out certainly not in defense of trump, but also not to defend Maduro. Maduro is a scumbag, but he’s still the leader of a nation and our Constitution specifically prevents the USA from casually kidnapping the leaders of other nations. All of the other justification trump and his cronies are trying to use is equally wrong in this. I want to let people know that there is no “broken clock right twice a day” situation here. trump is still wrong.


  • I was listening to Bloomberg radio today, which is very much business focused. They aren’t buying the trump administration’s story. In fact their reporting added a couple important points I hadn’t heard elsewhere:

    • Oil prices down are currently way down globally. trump talks about oil companies investing billions, but with the current price of oil, there’s no profit in it for oil companies so they don’t have a reason to. There is currently a global oversupply. Estimates show that it will be anywhere from 8 to 10 years before the oil market will recover enough for Venezuelan oil investments to be worth doing from a business point of view.
    • A number of American companies previously had huge infrastructure investments in Venezuela before all those assets were nationalized by Chavez. So most American oil companies are reluctant to have any further investment right now in the country
    • Bringing additional Venezuelan oil to market will actually hurt American producers. To me this sounds like the same thing trump did to American beef producers by giving money to Argentina, then promising to import Argentinian beef into US markets.
    • The type of oil Venezuela (Orinco Belt) produces is high sulfur (aka “heavy sour” crude). There are only a few refineries in the world that are best suited for this type of oil. The USA has some, but most are in Saudi Arabia.
    • What narcotics (Cocaine) come out of Venezuela don’t come to the USA. They go to Europe. So the USA doesn’t have legal standing on the drug argument because the USA isn’t the recipient of anything Venezuela traffics.

    Lastly, the reporters specifically brought up that this invasion to Venezuela is timed exactly when additional Epstein documents were supposed to be released and that the Venezuela story is consuming new cycles when it would have been Epstein news.

    I was kind of shocked at the clarity of this level of reporting from a main stream source that is business focused.