Why not? Based on Iran’s history, I think it’s highly improbably they would use nukes offensively. They have every reason to want to develop a nuke. It’s likely that they even have the capacity to make one. Even then, they’ve refused to. All evidence points to the fact that they genuinely want peace. All of their responses to either American or Israeli attacks have been very limited. Even their allies all seem primarily interested in self defense.
While the government may not be to your liking, having nukes is not going to prevent organic resistance. In fact, having a real deterrent against foreign military intervention ensures that the people of Iran can focus on fighting for their personal freedoms and not their very lives. In the past there have been real protest movements in favor of social reform. Now though? Iranians are demonstrating in defiance of Israel and in support of the Iranian state.
To be clear, I’m not exactly a fan of nuclear proliferation. However, in a world where the only country to ever use nukes as a weapon and their genocidal proxy are aiming to obliterate your country, having a nuclear deterrent makes everyone safer.
As you’ve said, they’ve had a track record of power competition and want their sphere of influence in the region, but repeatedly have shown refrain towards other nations during times of escalation.
Iran had (/has?) a chemical weapons program after the Iran-Iraq war, and guess what? There never was a VX nerve gas attack on Tel Aviv. I’m not remotely concerned with them using a nuke offensively, because they’ve exercised restraint repeatedly when they did have other weapons of mass destruction. And they’ve proven they have the capability to get past Israel and allied missile defense, so it’s not a capability gap either
All this hand wringing over “they cannot have a bomb under any circumstances” is unspoken MAD calculus - because then Israel would be on a level playing field as far as ultimate escalation and regime security, and that’d be intolerable for Bibi/the US’s/Gulf State plans for the region.
Why not? Based on Iran’s history, I think it’s highly improbably they would use nukes offensively. They have every reason to want to develop a nuke. It’s likely that they even have the capacity to make one. Even then, they’ve refused to. All evidence points to the fact that they genuinely want peace. All of their responses to either American or Israeli attacks have been very limited. Even their allies all seem primarily interested in self defense.
While the government may not be to your liking, having nukes is not going to prevent organic resistance. In fact, having a real deterrent against foreign military intervention ensures that the people of Iran can focus on fighting for their personal freedoms and not their very lives. In the past there have been real protest movements in favor of social reform. Now though? Iranians are demonstrating in defiance of Israel and in support of the Iranian state.
To be clear, I’m not exactly a fan of nuclear proliferation. However, in a world where the only country to ever use nukes as a weapon and their genocidal proxy are aiming to obliterate your country, having a nuclear deterrent makes everyone safer.
As you’ve said, they’ve had a track record of power competition and want their sphere of influence in the region, but repeatedly have shown refrain towards other nations during times of escalation.
Iran had (/has?) a chemical weapons program after the Iran-Iraq war, and guess what? There never was a VX nerve gas attack on Tel Aviv. I’m not remotely concerned with them using a nuke offensively, because they’ve exercised restraint repeatedly when they did have other weapons of mass destruction. And they’ve proven they have the capability to get past Israel and allied missile defense, so it’s not a capability gap either
All this hand wringing over “they cannot have a bomb under any circumstances” is unspoken MAD calculus - because then Israel would be on a level playing field as far as ultimate escalation and regime security, and that’d be intolerable for Bibi/the US’s/Gulf State plans for the region.