- Private payrolls drop 33,000 in June
- ADP historically is poor predictor of official nonfarm payrolls
- Challenger report shows sharp drop in layoffs
WASHINGTON, July 2 (Reuters) - U.S. private payrolls fell for the first time in more than two years in June as economic uncertainty hampered hiring, but low layoffs continued to anchor the labor market.
Private payrolls dropped by 33,000 jobs last month, the first decline since March 2023, after a downwardly revised increase of 29,000 in May, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the report would show private employment increasing by 95,000 following a previously reported gain of 37,000 in May.
There were job losses in the professional and business services, education and health services, and financial activities sectors. But the leisure and hospitality, manufacturing, and construction industries added jobs.
The ADP report, jointly developed with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, was published ahead of the more comprehensive employment report for June due to be released on Thursday by the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. There is no correlation between the ADP and BLS employment reports.
The BLS’ employment report is being published a day early because of the Independence Day holiday on Friday. Economists shrugged off the decline in the ADP measure, noting its poor track record predicting the official payrolls count.
“Use ADP only to gauge the big picture,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.
“Right now, that picture shows ADP’s private sector employment estimates declining steadily since December. Today’s big drop underscores that decaying trend.”
U.S. stocks were mixed in early trading. The dollar rose versus a basket of currencies. Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields rose.
What company or industry? I have been looking to do a job swap and have been struggling to find companies that are hiring
Welders and machinist are retiring in droves and very few young people are coming in to replace them. Worse, the skills they’re showing up with aren’t applicable to the reality of the job. I’ve seen a LOT of CNC guys twist up their whole scrotum when asked to manually set up a lathe or mill. Programming or whatever is nifty but it won’t help you actually make a fucking part. I can’t tell you how many apprentices have given me a blank look when I ask them to read a mechanical micrometer instead of a digital. Or worse, VERNIER. It’s pathetic. And that’s just machine work. Welding is worse. The smoke and sparks are “scary”, but they’ll try to turn up the acetylene past 15 psi like they’re not about to blow up half a block. Surprise, they don’t know how to run a torch either.
I got laid off Monday, and Thursday I’m doing paperwork to get paid at a new job next monday. Skilled trades feels good.
That or they pay shit. I’ve said “maybe 10 years ago” a few times to recruiters over the past year. Don’t insult me, I know what I’m worth.
I have seen that too, I’m in engineering and seeing jobs posted for 60k in hcol areas
Im a welder and machinist, and I’d be pretty bummed to see 60k/year. No way an engineer should be looking at that.
This. I am seeing 40’s for entry level in tech. This pretty much puts it at the point were everything people fled to go to tech was at. Im also seeing larger wages more for management than technical ability.
Yeah, because the idiots with the MBAs don’t actually know what merit or efficiency is. They’re simply trying to make a new caste system.
That’s painful.