I’m interested in developing the skill to estimate probabilities for real-world situations. What are the best ways to learn this systematically? Are there books, courses, or exercises that teach probabilistic thinking, Bayesian reasoning, or practical forecasting skills?
I want to check this math and see if the AI is gaslighting me.
Two outcomes does not mean 50/50 chances. Maybe you were being sarcastic about that, but people actually use that reasoning in the real world all the time.
It either happens, or it doesn’t, or the chances are not equal.
That’s 50/50/50 or 1 in 3.
SMH. You could get hit by a meteor tomorrow, or you could not. I guess you have a 50% chance of dying! Good luck with it man… I hope you make it.