In October, around 25,000 Russian soldiers were confirmed killed on video, with an additional 2,000–3,000 estimated casualties not captured on camera—the highest monthly toll since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during a meeting with press on November 7.
Most of the losses occurred on the Pokrovsk front, where Russian forces launched 220 assaults in recent days, using heavy equipment.
This is past ‘pyrrhic victory’ territory and solidly into ‘existential loss’ territory. Forget the land, focus on the lives, a military empire is dying in Pokrovsk, and it is dying quickly. The logistical and manpower losses are too great to maintain any degree of professionalism and that process of hollowing out snowballs.
Russia is shifting from a maximally spatially diffuse offensive to focused pushes with armor (in my opinion this is a NECESSARY reaction to losing a decisive advantage in artillery) and it is failing spectacularly.
Losing ~1000 soldiers a day over a massive frontline is one thing, losing that many in one area of operations is entirely another, the focused brutality and futility eats away at every part of the Russian war machine. This severe incompetence cannot be unseen by all involved, it is a torpedo to the Russian war effort everywhere it touches it.
25,000 in a MONTH? Holy shit Russia, just give up already.
Putin is doing the tried and tested killbot strategy, send wave after wave of his men until Ukraine runs out of ammo
For a town with a pre-war population of some 60,000 people.
The Canadian army has approximately 68,000 active personnel…
My problem with this thought is: what is Putin willing to do if he is backed into a corner? My biggest concern in this whole mess.
Earlier this year (and many times before that) there were claims that they push it to take land before negotiations or/and freezing territorial gains. It is a recurring message I heard a lot, but more recently - before Trump took office once again with some thinking he’d initiate that freeze.
Is it the guiding idea this time? Or is that part of the front any significant? Why that piece of land gets so much attention and casualties?
For Russia, Pokrovsk is definitely a logistical and defensive objective.
However, as you have said, you have to consider the political context. Russia is clearly trying to posture to begin negotiations while desperately trying to appear strong and thus uninterested in negotiations. Simultaneously, internally Putin has to promise something to the elements that keep him in power, and part of that promise must include some specific reference to timelines and objectives at the front… which I think we are clearly seeing the real world impact on military actions from in Russia’s focus on Pokrovsk.
It is also just as simple as… well if they can color in the city on their maps and say “we filled in that whole shape therefor we own it!” that is part of the logic here. International relations, politics and war is sometimes literally that dumb. Trump is certainly that dumb and that is who Putin will be negotiating with in large part here.
For Russian propaganda it is massively important to take the next step and fully capture Pokrovsk so propaganda and fearmongering towards the enemy can begin to focus on “After Pokrovsk Russia Will _____”. For the story to work, with an intense mood of inveitability towards Russian advance, they need to hit the next beat in the story and the real world failure of the Russian military is so catastrophically bad that the broader strategic Russian story of victory is falling into pieces as it blatantly diverges from the timeline of reality in Russia’s immense losses in and around Pokrovsk. The consequences of this are severe enough that you can see Russia doubling down and accepting even more massive losses to try to force the capture of Pokrovsk faster to preserve the crucial Russian narratives underpinning the Russian war effort.
I think this is why Zelensky keeps emphasizing how existentially important the expedient capture of Pokrovsk is to the Russian war effort and why it is worth fighting so hard to destabilize the intensity of the Russian offensive here. Russia can maintain the alternate reality that sustains its war effort if it captures Pokrovsk quickly, if.
If you listen to Russian sources, Pokrovsk, a random town of 60k people pre-war with moderarely ok roads (again, pre war. Its a mountain of rubble now) may as well be castle Grey skull, the very linchpin of the entire war.
And now that this massive obstacle is gone, and so easily with basically no real casualties, all those new recruits are clear to join for an easy and glorious march on Berlin, Paris and London!
