Anton Gerashchenko on Bluesky story about a strike at a nuclear plant with documentation:
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3m56ndvbujs2i
The post contains video from the situation.
As I’ve been posting many times before, many workers in Russia are behind on payments. People working in factories being 3 months behind is not uncommon.
Anna from Ukraine explains the situation here. She is a good source IMO, because her English is excellent, and being Ukrainian she understands Russian, and makes frequent news updates about the Ukrainian war from various perspectives.
Anna Danylchuk:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6EQ0ubmsIk
Inside Russia on youtube was first to report on the Russian population beginning to have had enough to a degree they are actually beginning to complain:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoR5_bJywWQ
I’ve claimed before I don’t think Putin will last through the winter, and I see this as the first signs that the Russian people is about to have had enough.
The story reported by Anna and Gerashchenko tells that the workers are at least 2 months behind on wages, they were promised transportation to work, something that is important because of the lack of fuel, and public transport becoming unreliable. But they do not get the promised transportation. They were also promised 1 hot meal per day, but do not receive that either.
Finally in their homes, they are out of water and heat.
This is the economic and infrastructure collapse many have predicted was inevitable, that is now beginning to really show. And it isn’t even really winter yet!
PS: The moderators removed my previous post with false accusations, so here it is posted again according to their demands.
I really, really, really hope so. But we’ve seen so many “tomorrow guys, it’ll all come crashing down tomorrow” that we’ve become quite numb to them.
Still, definitely rooting for this.
But we’ve seen so many “tomorrow guys, it’ll all come crashing down tomorrow” that we’ve become quite numb to them.
This kind of thing goes on very slowly until it doesn’t. Collapse of Soviet Union back in the day had various events for several years contributing to the eventual total collapse but the final stage (or whatever you want to call it) took only few months. Obviously situation today is very different than back in the 90’s, but it gives at least some perspective on what might be expected.
I don’t have any idea how close the total collapse is today and I’m not sure anyone really has, but cracks are starting to show and assuming things progress like they’ve been for the last couple of years it seems like pace is definetly increasing.
I don’t think tomorrow is what most have claimed, but maybe “any time now”, which has kind of been true for the past year.
The signs have been clear for a couple of years now, that the Russian economy can’t handle the war effort against Ukraine in the long run. But the time scale is very hard to predict, if not outright impossible. But in the beginning we knew that when the war chest Putin had saved up was dry, it would only be a matter of time before the Russian economy would see a steep downturn, those early predictions have come true.
But if for instance we get an extremely mild winter, Russia might actually push through it this year too.
But the way it looks, the infrastructure is collapsing, one aspect is that Russia commonly has centralized heating plants, that supply hot water to apartments. These are often based on waste heat from electricity production. And we known in many areas they are behind on maintenance of those, which potentially can leave people without both electricity and heat.
How bad this goes is hard to predict, but we are seeing problems already, despite we are only just out of maintenance season!
The Russian economy, infrastructure and population have been stretched beyond their limits for some time now, the real question is when the parts begin to snap.
I am pretty certain this winter will do it to a big enough degree on the economy and infrastructure for the population to snap too.
The story from the power plant where the workers strike is an example of it. Remember this is GRU (KGB) country, workers don’t complain unless they have really really serious reasons to do so. If you complain you risk going to prison, and going to prison is almost like a death sentence in Russia.I also remember through all these 2022-today days there been numerous “How russia is about to fall” topics and digests, and all sorts of “RUSSIA IS DONE” shit. I also remember when USD was 142 Rubles and everyone were saying “That’s it, Russia’s no more…”
Yeah… Huge “Doubt (X)” energy here.
I hope you’re right, but I don’t believe in anything other than using force against the russians.
That would mean going beyond our current attacks with drones and locally produces missiles and doing at least 50-100 ballistic missile strikes against the russians per week. This is just one example; a similar comprehensive approach would need to be applied in multiple areas.
Beyond that, we would need to arm freedom fighters in occupied nations to allow both utilization of senior collaborators, but also anti-air system to bring down russian planes and a bombing program to disrupt russian logistics.
Seems to me that Russia is already unable to handle the current level of attacks. But of course if the attacks on Russia were escalated, the end of the war would come sooner.
Atacks on the enemy has long been known to force their resolve to fight on. finding a useful target for missles is hard. Not that there isn’t a use for hundreds but that they are not as useful as many think.
I will respectful disagree, I am sure our leadership would also not reject the ability to launch ~100 tomahawks per week on an indefinite basis.
I don’t see what you are disagreeing with. There is a reason Ukraine isn’t attacking Hospitals in Russia even though they could: they know this and are figuring it out. Ukraine has plenty of targets for 100 tomahawks - but they know that will not directly end the war even though it is useful as part of the war.
No is calling for attacking hospitals or civilians! I was taking about military and industrial targets.
From your thumbs to god’s DMs, let’s hope so. I’m convinced peace without full regime change is impossible
I agree, Those 2 are connected, because Putin knows he won’t survive politically if he ends this war at a point where Russia has gained almost nothing, at extreme cost to the country.
And for Putin, not surviving politically is probably the same as simply not surviving.
The Russian economy was already strained by the war and sanctions. But now the Russian economy is outright collapsing. Ukraine’s attacks and sanctions have cut Russian oil exports in half compared to the beginning of the war, and in the same time the price has dropped to half.
That means that oil exports are only worth a fourth now compared to the beginning of the war!
But it is not only oil, it is EVERYTHING!Russian oligarchs overall are estimated to have lost about half their net worth!:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_billionairesAs shown in my original post, Russian companies are now at a point where they can’t pay workers, transportation is failing, and some people can’t even get food reliably.
There were recent stories about how Russians in certain regions wouldn’t have power or water or heat due to “planned” maintenance. Except this is not possibly planned maintenance, because that is ALWAYS done in the summertime!
Russia is out of options to cover the deficits in creative ways. From now on they will have almost immediate effect, and old deficits will catch up too, and the whole thing will probably collapse over the next 3-6 months, or earlier if the Russian people decide they’ve had enough.
I have some doubt. Ive seen similar reports before and still chugging along. This is just like the "China’s economy is crashing! " headlines
“Trump going to jail!”
They’re definitely going to run out of money eventually, and this isn’t a highly disciplined and ideological place where they can push through desperate measures to keep going. There’s been efforts towards becoming that that during the war, but Russia has been doing the controlled chaos mafia state thing for quite a while, and I doubt it will be enough.
But yes, OP seems pretty anecdotal and I’m not going to put too much weight on it.
The Russian people will suffer, that’s a given. But will they do anything about it?
I think they will. Russia has had revolutions 2 times before.
As they say, third time is the charm. 😀
The only way out of the war is a dead Putin. As soon as that happens Russia will fly apart.
I’m a bit sceptical of Russia falling in the short to medium term based on Money & Macro video https://youtu.be/YRuYb3H3mvA
His thesis boils down to economic collapse is generally caused by one or more of:
- Capital flight
- Blockade (lacking essential imports)
- Debt fueled bubble
- Popular discontent
Capital flight is already prevented by capital controls Elvira Nabiullina set.
Blockade is hard to do without China cooperating.
Debt fueled bubble is unlikely since household and government debt is relatively low compared to other western countries.
Which leaves popular discontent. Putin is still pretty popular in Russia despite everything which means he can still use his popularity as a resource to go further down the war economy path. Since Russia has only used 1 out of 4 main tools to stabilise a war economy.
We should be looking out for wage controls, price controls and shutting down of industries, all levers that can be pulled that really affect people’s lives. Work for shit wages and buy limited selection of goods and the local cinema was shut down so people can work in an artillery shell factory.
In his opinion the Russian economy still can increase military spending by a large amount without collapse but not without taking it closer to collapse due to popular discontent.
If Ukraine can keep the oil production in Russia low I think it could really speed run the entire process. However, Putin is a tricky bitch so I wouldn’t count him out. If he can get the oil production back up and running by mobilising workers and build for redundancy the war could still go on for years.
Oil production is lowest in 4 years it’s down to half now, and so are the prices. Meaning that Russia only has a fourth the revenue that they had 4 years ago.
Exactly, the gap in foreign currency inflow/outflow is not going to be easy to fill with oil production this low. It very well may be that all it takes is a bunch of tomahawks aimed at oil refineries to cripple the Russian economy to a breaking point.
too bad it isnt affecting thier propaganda machine though, he funds them even times of stress.
Slava Ukraini! Нехай Росія швидко зазнає невдачі.
