- cross-posted to:
- news@lemmy.world
- cross-posted to:
- news@lemmy.world
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Sooooo that gives us how long, exactly, until we dive nose first into a huge world wide recession?
Remove the rich
Nobody should be allowed to be a billionaire, put max caps on netwoths. Anything over 10-20 million should go 100% to tax
Peter Thiel and Donald j Trump are both best friends with Jeffrey r Epstein and child rapists.
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Peter Thiel sells his Tesla stake
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Telsa price goes up
Lolz. Lmao even.
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Anyone hear a loud hissing sound?
i hate peter thiel but i also hate nvidia and tesla so i hope this ends out somehow being bad for everyone
My bet is that he’s trying to start a panic in the markets. That way he can clean up on a short.
I would say I am fairly sure its some kind of afinancial crime to uh, short a company you have a material position in…
But we live in ‘interesting times’, so… who knows!
… Maybe he had an ‘interesting chat’ recently, with Michael Burry.
That would be ‘funny’.
I think it’s cute you believe that we live in a world where financial crimes are actually prosecuted.
I remember Enron being prosecuted, we did at one point at least kind of pretend to give a shit.
But uh… yeah…
Oh, it will. Bad for everyone human.
It will end badly for us.
The best case, I think, is for Nvidia and Tesla to do well in the short term (next 6 months or so) and then crash. That way Thiel and most people following his investment advice get to eat it, but the bubble doesn’t stay propped up for too long.
The whole fucking thing needs to crash to the ground.
Hilarious that at the end of this specific article, for me, an ad popped up advertising AI investing 😂 Jesus we are so fucked
Honestly, if someone is goi g to pick shit at random, I rather have AI do it for 5 bucks a month than abnaker for 200k a year.
Of you’re going for chaos based investing, just buy a goldfish
That means the peak is here. The insider of all insiders sold? Dump everything!
Yep.
I read this and actually said aloud “Oh Dear God.”
I mean, I’m a poor, I don’t have… a pension, investments, I’ll be lucky if my net worth ever exceeds the FDIC guaranteed $250k…
But uh yeah, yeah, if you have any uh, exposure to the stock market… uh, good luck!
Have fun realizing you were actually just barely less poor than me, this whole time.
was gonna say. they guy whos company is to to have all the information. mmmmmm.
Sucks that even though I’m not invested in anything, when this pops I won’t be able to buy food. Thanks a lot, wealth and “security” chasers.
eyup. I mean considering it was more about not having housing before and now its about not having food we can see where things are going.
Here Comes Another Bubble v1.1 - The Richter Scales https://youtu.be/I6IQ_FOCE6I
The next year before the Midterms is going to be a wild circus.
The next year before the Midterms is going to be a wild circus.
The criminal attacks on the entire democratic process will be at a new peak.
Hope he loses everything
This goes back to September.
Don’t make actions today based on something someone did months ago. Look at the situation now.
Nvidia is still being given piles of money. Everybody knows it’s gonna blow eventually… but if there’s a dip today it will rise again until a real crash once buyers stop paying.
DRAM going to the moon right now over demand is not a good sign of nvidia losing steam any time soon.
People are way too pessimistic about AI. NVIDIA is going to sell GPUs by the truckload until research finds a way around CUDA.
Sure, the pace of big leaps has slowed, but I liken this phase to the early 1900s. Cars were slow and unreliable, but once the technology took foothold and the 4th Industrial Revolution really took off, look how much progress was made. We went to the moon by the 60s.
AI is causing water shortages, rising electric costs and chip shortages. AI is just a fancy search engine, that can be a useful tool. It was awesome for ai to read my blood test results but I don’t need it for most things, a waste of energy. Search engines should have an off button for ai, turn the lights off when we’re not using it.
Google search used to be able to find answers in the old days.
The sad truth is that today traditional search engines have been run into the ground by SEO, and some how chatbots backed by LLMs are producing what Google used to call the “I’m feeling Lucky” button. It used to just automatically take you to the first result for your query which was usually what you wanted.
I totally understand the challenges with infrastructure that need solving, but that doesn’t mean AI is useless or that it’ll never be better than it is now.
Frankly, the “AI slop” crusade isn’t working. It’s time to choose a new fighter.
I cannot fathom why I wouldn’t be pessimistic about a tool that’s being crammed into places it doesn’t fit. There are a small handful of things generative algorithms are genuinely useful for. But expecting it to magically solve anything else is foolish, and always will be.
This is what I’m talking about. “Always will be”? AGI will come. Don’t bet against it.
Interesting comparison, but how many of the original car companies are still around today? And did those early car companies inflate and manipulate the stock market?- they probably weren’t even publicly traded in the early days.
I think a crash is on its way regardless of how successful AI will be decades into the future
I don’t doubt they’ll keep selling more GPUs, but AI certainly looks like a bubble that’s ready to burst with all the fake money going around in circles (assuming those diagrams are correct, which I assume they are).
Not the mention the lies that are keeping AI companies propped up, like AGI that will replace everything “in 3 months”. Pretty sure they missed that deadline already.
With the current “fake” money, lies and over-investment, something bad is surely going to happen unless someone steps in.
AI advances quite a bit each day, but I’m not sold on AGI becoming a thing any time soon, maybe even ever idk.
with all the fake money going around in circles (assuming those diagrams are correct, which I assume they are)
I’m not familiar with those. Do you have one handy or maybe some keywords so I can look it up?
Think this one was the one going around
Not sure what you can lookup, probably stuff like “AI investment bubble”
This is probably a good resource (haven’t read it) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_bubble (specifically look under
Speculation > Circular Financing, soz dunno how to link to a header)I don’t have a source and this might be old news, but a lot of the big deals right now are just “promises” to invest I think (money, etc not exchanged hands yet)
All that shows is who the business partners are. Nvidia sells GPUs, AI companies buy GPUs, and companies buy products from AI companies. For example, Microsoft’s Copilot is based on OpenAI’s models. End customers buy products from companies that either do AI themselves or buy products from AI companies.
All you’re seeing here is how markets work. If it’s a bubble, it’ll likely impact those in the picture, but it’s not a bubble because of the picture.
From the wiki article:
Speculation about a bubble largely originates from concerns that leading AI tech firms are involved in a circular flow of investments that are artificially inflating the value of their stocks.
Example: OpenAI buys gpus from nvidia. Nvidia invests in OpenAI with the expectation of them using the money to buy more nvidia gpus.
The hype of any company partnering with OpenAI right now is boosting stock values crazily. Look at the AMD partnership, they basically were given one of the largest stakeholder positions in AMD and given the chips they wanted because they paid AMD by boosting their stock with the hype of the partnership.
If it’s a bubble, it’ll likely impact those in the picture, but it’s not a bubble because of the picture.
Yes if this bursts it’ll effect those in the picture, but we are also in the picture. If it bursts, who gets bailouts with public money? Who has to not buy things because it becomes too expensive?
There’s more to it than a simple picture. If the stock market crashes because of AI (or for any reason), we will all be effected (even just think about peoples retirement funds).
And final note, it’s not a bubble because someone made a graphic, they made a graphic describing how it could be a bubble.
My point is Nvidia isn’t propping up the bubble. If you look at the OpenAI deal, it’s a bit less than their yearly revenue, and the deal is for about the number of GPUs they make in a year, so it’s basically trading GPUs for equity. If anything, Nvidia is profiting from the bubble, not propping it up.
we will all be effected
Oh certainly, but I don’t think it’s any different from other large corrections.
Here’s how I see the major companies in that chart in a crash situation:
- Nvidia - currently trading at 50+ times earnings on AI hype, but 25 is more reasonable, so potential crash of 50%, but probably much less since they’re still king in non-AI compute
- Microsoft - AI is mostly value add, and the stock isn’t too inspired overhyped, so maybe 10% correction?
- OpenAI - would go under and get liquidated
- Oracle - datacenters and AI aren’t a huge part of its business, so probably minimal impact
- the rest - haven’t looked into all of them, but most will be hit hard
It’ll he hit hard, but not nearly as bad as 2000 or 2008. If I look at the S&P 500, only 3 of the top 10 (Nvidia, Google, Meta) would be severely impacted, the rest only seem to dabble. Those 10 make up almost 40% of the S&P 500 and like 30-35% of the total US market. There are more large companies in there as well, but I don’t think most will be screwed like OpenAI. Palantir, for example, likely retains its government contracts for their data alone.
So in an AI bubble scenario, I’m guessing we see a correction of like 20-30%, maybe less depending on the nature of it. I think a more likely scenario is a bear market where investors slowly get tired of poor earnings as the promises of AI fail to manifest. If OpenAI dies, large companies just move to another provider.
And final note, it’s not a bubble because someone made a graphic, they made a graphic describing how it could be a bubble.
I think they’re missing the forest for the trees here. It’s not a bubble because these companies are investing in AI, it’s a bubble because tons of companies are buying into the hype. These companies are merely investing into solutions those companies claim to want. I work for a relatively small non-US company (a few thousand employees, revenue around $1B), and the board recently came to our tech group asking what we’re doing with AI.
This isn’t a handful of companies propping it up, a large chunk of the market is afraid of being left behind and demanding AI tools. All the graphic shows is how large companies are investing to meet the demand. Microsoft used OpenAI products in its offerings, OpenAI is a major Nvidia customer, etc.
I really appreciate the info. Yikes! This isn’t looking good.
The worst part is not JUST the circular investment making up basically all the new investment in the last few months… but the fact they are all based in impossible-to-deliver metrics.
So it is literally not a matter of “if” the bubble pops, it’s a matter of when the market speculators will no longer be able to hide it
I really just see current AI as search 2.0.
It’s less dumb, but it’s still fucking dumb. Search gives me garbage results constantly, so does AI. AI is usually just a little bit easier to figure out since you just ask it natural language questions unlike traditional search.
When googling anything today you really can’t find useful information unless it’s a very specific set of instructions usually on a social media site. AI doesn’t give you nearly as much garbage unless you start asking it really complex questions.
The sad thing is, we’ve already had this figured out before.
15-20 years ago Google was almost perfect. It completely blew my mind how accurate and fast it was. Many times it felt like it was a mind-reader. I didn’t even type in half my question and it was already auto-completing it and showing the results, the first few of which contained a very exact and detailed answer that someone wrote on a forum somewhere or an article that gave me a complete and correct answer. Remember the old ‘I’m feeling lucky’ button which directly took you to the first search result? Yea, it was pretty usable back then, because the first result was usually correct. Pepperidge farm 'members…
And then the enshittification started by pumping the site full of ads. First the ads were pretty distinguishable from the real results and you could just scroll through them. Then they started to disguise the ads more and more like real results, and just showing more of them. And by now I think google is basically ONLY ads. There are NO real results on it. Virtually the only ‘content’ you are shown are what somebody has payed for google to show. Even if what you are looking for is a very well known, public interest fact, if nobody is paying for it, google is not going to show it. E.g. the other day google could not find me the website of a country-wide utility company for electricity by typing their exact name, because I guess they haven’t paid their monthly ads for google.
Luckily there are other alternatives to google, which still have ‘don’t do evil’ in their corporate philosophy. None of them are close to as good as google used to be, especially if you are not searching in english. But still a hell of a lot better than how google is now.
There is more to it than that… 20 years ago most of the people on the internet were likely similar to you, so most of their desired results were similar to yours.
Now people on the internet since the early 2000 are a minority compared to the “democratized” flood of users who joined in the mobile crapplication phase and started skewing search results towards simpler, less useful results.
SEO and ads didn’t help, but the whole ecosystem broke the model.
None of what you said explains what they are talking about lol.
It’s like you have no experience with what they’re talking about
Nice troll bait.
No, I know EXACTLY what I’m talking about. Google’s old results were based on click-through determining which results were best. Now that the quality of the average user is lower, so is the quality of the average click-through result.
That’s as much response as you’re going to get though. You responded in bad faith, so now you’re going to talk to yourself if you choose to respond.
You know I do agree with you.
For some reason the folks here don’t get the flood of “normal people” that have taken over the internet that was really only for techies 20-25 years ago. It was even more pronounced before then.
Back then in many ways the internet was a little bit like lemmy today. There isn’t critical mass with shitloads of idiots, there’s tons of like minded people who think critically and try to do what’s right. Unfortunately Pandora’s box has been opened though, so it’s still not exactly the same.
If you ask me, the windows 95/98/xp era required the same level of patience and technical troubleshooting that Linux requires today. Maybe even more than modern Linux honestly. Windows 8/10/11 have been essentially on rails so much that needing to understand and figure shit out is less needed than ever. The people today on the internet generally are not at all like the people who used to be the majority here.
I don’t like elitism. The least techy people I know are the most culturally similar to what I was seeing on the Internet 20 years ago.
Because despite being less necessary for daily survival and thus less popular, it was also less structured and less hierarchical.
It’s the other way around honestly, the “techy types knowing better” have built leviathans.
You might not see it, but when people talk about some “better” Internet, an alternative timeline from the 90s to what we got, it’s funny. Because there are people who have that better Internet, Facebook’s and Google’s and others’ infrastructure inside is basically that. These companies and other such have been created and driven by that exact smarter kind of people which you seem to claim was opposed to the bad changes that transpired in the world and on the Internet. And the “democratized” crowd of monkeys was complaining, but couldn’t do anything. Then that same crowd, yes, started using what was given to them. Because the crowd of monkeys is wiser, they look at the whole forest and not some particular trees, as they are not the foresters, and they see when the wind changes. They are not interested in sectarian holywars over specific technologies or elitism on tech, because their interests and elitism are usually in different domains.
Each and every case of something not shit becoming shit is connected to a group of smartasses getting their way at forcing the world go some chosen path. Because nobody is smart enough to choose that path correctly, and when those not smart enough people can no longer get each and every other person’s approval to what they’re doing before doing that, they are turning things into shit.
I also remember how in year 2003 as a kid I loved HTML 4 and such as they were and didn’t understand what are all those movements to CSS, why Flash is bad, and so on. I was a monkey. There were some smarter monkeys who’d say there’s technological development ahead of us, and that it will be better than what we have. And there were some wiser monkeys, who’d predict correctly where all this is going.
OK, some of the wiser monkeys were also studying CS, so now I’m simplifying things to help my claim.
It’s just - when a smaller group decides for all, this is called degeneracy. Degeneracy is not a compliment to the organism described as degenerate.
Google search was was better before, like 10 years ago
Yes. Every year the SEO slop article bloat increases.
The trend has been steadily downwards for at least another decade as money making has been the goal above and beyond everything else.
In some ways I think the internet’s era is coming to an end. I don’t even know what the fuck we call it but the slop has taken over. Every website with information has paywalls or the most horrific advertisements we’ve ever seen.
I don’t understand how people even use the internet without ad blockers but many do. Every day all the anti Adblock tech updates and breaks everything unless you fuck with it, and they usually fix it. Feels like any day we’re just a couple of small changes away from BIOS level DRM where no website can be viewed without windows configured with secure boot and some officially sanctioned DRM rootkit. After all, who cares about Linux support when it’s such a small market share? Stuff like chat control feels adjacent to this.
I hope your 401K is diversified because this will bring down a lot with its fall.
If it isn’t diversified, then you’re not investing. You’re gambling.
I hope your 401K is diversified
When the MAG7 makes up half the S&P 500, its hard to get away from. Even if you somehow manage to avoid holding a big tech company (or a company that’s predicated on the spending of a Big Tech company), a downturn will force cascading sell-offs.
Does anyone 401k even let them choose what they want to invest in?
I have like 4 plans I can choose: Retire 2035, Retire 2045, Retire 2055, Retire 2065 and that’s it.
No options in the portal to do anything else. I can’t choose my stocks, any indexes, anything. The only other page is to change my contribution percent.
Yup, I have ~15 options. Basically:
- low cost S&P 500, US mid-cap fund, US small-cap fund, and total international funds (all under 0.10% ER)
- 1-2 actively managed options for each of the first bullet point with much higher fees
- 3 bond funds
- a cash fund
- a retirement fund (tons of bonds and cash)
I’m in a mix of the first bullet point.
401ks won’t let you pick specific stocks, generally speaking, but they should have more options than just target date funds. Most will at least have an S&P 500 fund and usually an international fund.
I have a 403(b) because I work at a university but yes we get to pick between a ton of stock funds but also a handful of blended assets, an invested bond, and a non-invested bond if you really think shit’s gonna go south. My last job did not offer this kind of thing tho.
