• jordanlund@lemmy.world
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    4 days ago

    “Only” 10 years makes it sound shorter than it should be. 10 years is way, way longer than any bubble should last.

    https://www.riskconcern.com/post/the-average-age-of-a-market-asset-bubble-how-long-does-a-bubble-last-on-average

    “an economic, asset, market bubble lasts for about 5.6 years or about 67.5 months. 98% confidence interval indicates a range of 3.1 years to 8.15 years. Thus, as per the data, there is a 98% probability that a bubble should have an age of 5.3 years ± 2.53 years.”

    p.s. I love that their data goes back as far the Tulipmania in 1634-1638.

    More on that in the excellent book “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.”

    (Public Domain!)

    https://www.gutenberg.org/files/24518/24518-h/24518-h.htm

    • FridaySteve@lemmy.world
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      4 days ago

      “Only” 10 years makes it sound shorter than it should be. 10 years is way, way longer than any bubble should last.

      A lot of folks whose first language isn’t English use “only” in the way OP did. It’s not to signify a shorter amount of time than people think it ought to be. It means in this case that the AI bubble would not pop before 10 years is up.

      • Da Bald Eagul@feddit.nl
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        4 days ago

        Yeah, I’d say there’s a difference between “in only 10 years” and “in 10 years only,” though this is coming from a non-native speaker as well 😅

        It is annoying, though, that there is no (clear,) concise way to say “pas over 10 jaar” like I can in Dutch.