Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that Ukraine received a shipment of air defense missiles on January 18, which significantly supported Ukraine’s capability to down a majority of the Russian drones and missiles in the January 19 to 20 strike.
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Drone operators of the Russian Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies are increasingly conducting mid-range strikes against Ukraine’s high-value, Western-provided air defenses and rocket launchers.
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Russian milbloggers claimed that Rubikon used a BM-35 strike drone but disagreed whether Russian forces hit a real Patriot system or a decoy.[31] One milblogger noted that the FPV strike on the Patriot demonstrates how some Russian frontline drones can now fly far beyond Kharkiv City (roughly 23 kilometers from the frontline), especially with the help of “mothership drones” (such as Molniya fixed-wing FPV drones) that carry one or more shorter-range drones to areas far from the front line.[32]
[a great reminder that credible decoys create survivability for crucial aspects of defense]
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ISW assesses that Ukrainian forces could likely deny Russian advances and enable Ukrainian counterattacks across the theater if Ukrainian forces can replicate the reported effects achieved in Kupyansk across the entirety of the theater, and at greater operational depths, such that Ukrainian forces deny Russian infantry from maneuvering within even deeper sections of the front line.
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Ukrainian forces continued their mid-range strike campaign against Russian military targets in occupied Luhansk Oblast between January 17 and 19. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on January 19 that Ukrainian forces destroyed a drone unit of the Russian 144th Motorized Rifle Division (20th CAA, MMD) in occupied Novokrasnyanka (roughly 25 kilometers from the front line).[62]
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A deputy commander of a Ukrainian battalion operating in the Pokrovsk direction reported on January 20 that Russian forces continue constant infiltration missions in the brigade’s area of responsibility (AoR).[81] The Ukrainian deputy commander assessed that Russian forces may soon conduct mechanized assaults as the ground is frozen solid, which is more conducive to mechanized maneuver than the mud previously prevalent in the area.
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Ukrainian forces continued their mid-range strike campaign against Russian military targets in occupied Crimea on the night of January 19 and 20. The Ukrainian Navy reported on January 20 that Ukrainian forces struck an unspecified military airfield in occupied Crimea.[98]