- cross-posted to:
- news@lemmy.world
- cross-posted to:
- news@lemmy.world
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The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives
Ok, so you don’t need a ceasefire, you need to just fucking leave.
TACO Tuesday
What Trump has agreed to…
So basically the US lost is what I’m reading here. Not even a ceasefire just a straight defeat.
Look, let Trump save face. Let him gloat that he won. It’s better than him bombing innocent people.
Not even a ceasefire just a straight defeat.
Probably why it won’t last, or at least violated several times.
Wouldn’t be the first time they mask loss
You can literally read the word “ceasefire” if you open the article lmao
A ceasefire were you don’t achieve any goals, and the opposing side gets major concessions is a defeat.
The Iranian regime survived. The nuclear programme survived. Iran now has the right to charge tolls on an international strait. The US is negotiating an withdrawal from the Middle East. Iran will get rid of the sanctions. And in they will get reparations as a cherry on top.
A ceasefire with guarantee not to repeat aggressions is either a lie or a defeat
i am presuming it’s a lie, but i would prefer defeat. kind of hard to keep a ceasefire when one party notoriously does not recognize ceasefires
I’m sure Japan signed a ceasefire back then too
Do we have a source for this?
so we lost lost all progress in limiting irans ability to create nuclear weapons in order to stop them from creating unuclear weapons. Well thats definately all trumped up.
So this 2 weeks is just them ending it and it’s over and we’re just going to forget about it because that’s how the news cycle works and then this never happened Jesus f****** Christ murica lost again but the billionaires won cuz they made money on this by rug pulling the world’s economy why do we live in capitalism so people can do this
Well, I think some good came out of this. Mostly evil, but some good.
I’m looking at (used) EVs seriously now. I’m betting a lot of other people are also trying to move to EVs after the nth price shock in x years. This one went at least as bad here as the start of the Ukraine war.
Also there are now politicians in Germany initiating discussions about restarting some of the nuclear plants if possible. My own country sadly isn’t too progressive on these issues, most people want shale rock to be brought back rather than additional wind turbines being built, since there were some points during the winter where there was no wind when it was really cold and electric prices shot through the roof.
why are we destroying our environment with shale rock when we can destroy our environment with hydroelectric and get waterskiing out of it
We’ve already dammed the like 3 rivers we have. We just don’t really have any major ones here :/
We do have copious amounts of shale rock and it’s pretty much the only natural resource we have that’s worth the money to mine. Which is why a lot of people aren’t happy about reducing it.
But even fossil fuels aren’t as reliable as people seem to think. The fancy new shale rock generator has been down as much as it has been up. They keep investing more money into it. Yay taxes.
Trump will start to walk back on this the second they sit down and possibly offer “personal gains” they just cant refuse. Iran will just walk out and all this shit will continue.
Mission Accomplished, part 2
I don’t think Trump would agree to #6. However, Trump could explain to Iran that ending sanctions would enable Iran to rebuild. #2 and #5 require explanation. Trump would probably agree to letting Iran having sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, but they would have to keep it open. Iran would have to agree to any UN resolution banning it from developing a nuclear bomb.
The ubiquitous two more weeks.
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Their Foreign Minister did reply to the proposal, promising to open the strait, their only leverage, for the duration of the negotiations.
It is not their only leverage, though it is by far their strongest card.
They’ve proven that they can destroy the energy infrastructure in the gulf, if they have to go full scorched earth. They’ve also proved capable of hitting Israel very painfully, and while it’s nothing compared to American bombs, the Nazis in Israel have a very low tolerance for any attacks at home, they can’t sustain a genocidal war when the victims aren’t mostly children and can actually fight back.
They’ve also already inflicted heaven losses on the US military, not to mention proved that they’ll come out on top in a war of attrition.
The only way the US/Israel can truly defeat Iran is with nukes, and while I do think Trump is stupid enough to do it, hopefully enough sane people can convince him that that’s not the victory he’s looking for.
What bothers me is that the Iranians seem to take this bait literally without being too critical. They’re basically saying that they’re ready to open the strait right away for negotiations to happen, even when Trump bombed their country during the previous ones. I think they will come to regret this.
Take the bait? Look, playing chess with a pigeon is difficult. Given the terms listed out, someone took bait, but I don’t think it was Iran.
Trump wanted an off ramp, but ultimately, it was Iran that handed it to him. Probably won’t do much else in the end but buying time.
Maybe Iran will commit to the ceasefire in the same way Israel committed to the Gaza ceasefire?
Other way around. Israel will commit to this ceasefire like they committed to the Gaza ceasefire.
Yes someone needs to warn the Iranians that this administration doesn’t always negotiate in good faith, they’re clearly not aware of that possibility.
What do they have to lose though? The moment the US starts bombing again the missiles start to fly. It’s tit for tat. That’s been their strategy this whole time. I don’t think they expect the US to take negotiations seriously at all.
I do however think Iran wants to appear reasonable to the rest of the world. Under the ceasefire, they still expect other countries to coordinate with them to get ships through. That was already happening prior to the ceasefire but now it’s clear that’s what they expect from everyone. They’re forcing the world to acknowledge Iranian sovereignty over the strait which is a pretty serious win if they can keep it.
What do they have to lose though? The moment the US starts bombing again the missiles start to fly.
What they lose is momentum. Oil prices, which is basically the only thing the Trump base cares about, are already falling, and if the ceasefire ever breaks, it will take quite some time to build them back up again. A lot of countries are already making plans to diversify away from the Gulf to mitigate that risk, some are looking into pipelines to avoid the strait altogether. All of which diminishes what leverage Iran has.
A second closure of the strait of Hormuz will much, much less effective.
Secondly, the politicians, journos and billionaires who supported that war on Iran are still very much here. This is far from over. The Americans will be back; not tomorrow, maybe not even this year, but when some opportunity arises again. This war was Iran’s chance to engrave into the American psyche some Vietnam-like PTSD every time they hear the word “Hormuz”, to make sure they never, ever try an attack like this again. With this ceasefire, they’re forfeiting that too, further allowing the US to buy more time.
I’m not sure they really lost momentum. They are still exerting control of the straits by enacting a toll, something they had already begun doing. A two week ceasefire isn’t enough time for countries to replenish their oil reserves and secure alternative energy sources. What they probably need to do now is extract concessions that allow them to rebuild and become even more resilient against US intervention. If they get even half of the 10 demands they laid out as part of the ceasefire agreement they’ll be in a more advantageous position long term.
The question I have right now is, will they resume firing on Israel now that it’s clear Israel has rejected the terms of the ceasefire? Everyone knows negotiating further with the US and Israel is pointless. Iran needs to show that if their demands aren’t met there will be consequences. If they don’t aid Hezbollah, that would be a sign they’ve lost momentum. It could mean that they aren’t confident enough to include their allies as part of the tit for tat strategy they’ve followed throughout the entire war.
They will. All it will take is a few drones from Iran atracking Israel after the cease fire and then the narrative will be “Iran violated the ceasefire, bombing will continue and now Europe has to help keep the strait open”.
Even if it’s open for a couple of weeks, no ships will sail, because the insurance companies won’t cover until the war is fully over, and without insurance they can’t dock anywhere or do anything.
Completely pointless, just finish the fucking war, that apparently you won weeks ago. WTF are Americunts still doing there?
TACO!
There is no ceasefire
