cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/49878453
Solo project I’ve been building this month, wanted to share here. The rules:
You get $10,000 and two secret years of real S&P 500 history, drawn from 1928 to 2019 (daily data, dividends included; your cash earns T-bill rates while you hide). One button: BUY or SELL. Your opponent is a couch. It buys at the start and never moves.
Every finished game is audited by 1,000 monkeys. It’s a permutation test 1,000 replays with your same time in the market and same number of trades, on random days. Beat 90% of the monkeys and your win is stamped TIMED THE MARKET. Anything less is stamped LUCKY, in red ink, on your settlement document.
About 84,000 games have been played so far. The couch has won 63% of them. Roughly 1 game in 9 ends in a win that survives the monkey audit.
There’s also a daily hand, same secret window for everyone, streaks, and a public ledger of humanity vs the couch.
If you have time, I’d love feedback, and I will answer any methodology questions, thanks!
The couch can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent.
These are always good counter arguments to technical analysis. But I’d love to see something where you get industry news surrounding the stocks and have to see if you can also trade based on the news and noise or if the couch wins there.
In these older years maybe that would change something but in the modern era the market is totally irrational and doesn’t react to news with any kind of sense.
I won!
hell yeah!
U r sure it’s not “be at the couch”
ayyy, nice
Wtf it’s harder than I imagined
yess, kind of the message hope you liked it!
Maybe add a volume chart to measure market activity, a candle stick chart to see the intra day OHLC and a moving average line chart. Just to see if people fare better compared to just an end of day line chart.
I would like a slider mode. It’s very hard to do any sensible strategy with an all or nothing approach. If market goes up by 30% I want to progressively sell and vice versa
it’s over two years so while not long term, it’s not short either. lots of ups and downs. but i’m thinking of adding a career mode with 2x10 years, start with 10k, see where you end up kind of thing.
As far as I can tell it only used stock that “won”. In that scenario, beating the couch is hard luck. But stock that ends up on 0, you could win more easily.
In real life I live off of that, so a couch won’t always win 😋
I got 2 years just post 1929 and the only reason I won was I sold early and only lost 30% of the 10k, the couch lost 6k.
it uses S&P500 which isn’t necessarily winning stocks. although it wins over the long term, lots of losing years are included here.
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I fuckin did it!
first and best use of this meme. i should think of some easter eggs related to this… congrats and hope you liked it (was a nice couch)
it was an excellent couch. before I wrecked it!
not the same couch, cousins actually…
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It’s a little scary to learn that the reason the stock market graphs are always so jagged minute to minute through the day is because of people like these.
there’s opportunity in trading. but to assume you’ll get the benefit is very similar to assuming you’ll beat the casino. it’s possible, but unlikely, especially in the long term.
ironic that you say you’ll lose in the long term, given that investing long term in an index fund is one of the safest ways to invest.
yeah, that’s the whole point of the game. “trading” is the one that will not work in the long term. staying in the index fund is the good option.
Well you can game volatile stocks and you can buy and sell whenever you feel like it. Stuff like Tesla you know they’re gonna swing down or swing up because shit’s just so manipulated
The loss on this case is “relative to an index fund”
Spamming the trade buttons seems to be a good strategy
Until OP implements short term cost basis
i just lost 3 out of 4 like that but certainly a strategy
Small request, can you add the couch’s win pct next to the number of games it has won? I’m lazy
Thanks!
done, refresh a few times to see it
Nice! Thanks so much!
no problem, good idea, never got around to it
I beat 9/10 monkeys! Damn I’m good, I should do this for real!
nice, congrats! and maybe you should (not)
