• 2 Posts
  • 67 Comments
Joined 7 months ago
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Cake day: February 27th, 2024

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  • the polls showed Hillary was going to trounce Trump pretty handedly.

    Not true. She was within the margin of error in the swing states.

    I think Fivethityeight’s explanation went something like…

    Don’t confuse 538’s model with polls. 538 takes polling data as an input, and then runs simulations that output the odds which side will win.

    Polls don’t measure the odds a candidate will win, they measure how many people would vote a certain way if the election were held today. Predictive models take that data and do a lot more than simply average the results.











  • They take getting caught seriously, not the stuff they get caught at.

    Wut. I’m not sure if this is a distinction without a difference, or a subtle distinction that I need a better grasp on continental philosophy to comprehend.

    It’s like saying a state doesn’t take murder seriously - they take getting caught seriously. It’s technically true if you parse it a certain way, but ultimately meaningless

    this kind of thing is not bad because it endangered people’s lives, it’s bad because it makes them look bad and might impact their exports

    Something can be bad for multiple reasons. Also, there’s multiple actors here. The operators of the state-owned enterprise have different incentives than the regulators