While the priors seemed to suggest it could float, the update step showed that was an outlier.
I’ll show myself the door.
No please stay, this joke was the only reason I clicked into the comments
Hard to answer that since I don’t know which door was picked first.
Then again, I’m taking 3. Goats are cool.
In search of a new car, the player chooses a door, say 1. The game host then opens one of the other doors, say 3, to reveal a goat and offers to let the player switch from door 1 to door 2.
Yeah, duh. You are supposed to switch doors, everybody knows that at this point, but the picture doesn’t show which door was initially picked.
Yeah I know, that’s why I’m telling you now which door was picked (door #1 according to the caption on the Wikipedia page I
stoleborrowed this image from) 🙂
At least you only have to sink one Bayesian Superyacht to update your priors. To get at population parameters you would need to sink many Frequentist Superyachts
Do they do the same diligence for the boats full of hundreds of poor people that sink in the Mediterranean every year? Or only when it’s a couple of rich people?
It’s pretty obvious why those ones sink.
They need more hulls and bulkheads?
Just less poverty
Best I can do is more ad banners on the side.
I think we need more empirical data, in the form of more rich people sinking on super yachts to determine whether this is a typical case or not.
A single case could be the outlier. We definitely need more superyacht sinkings to have a trustworthy dataset to draw conclusions from.
We simply cannot risk not knowing.
Science sometimes requires sacrifice for the greater good, we must be prepared to make a great sacrifice.
While we are at it, let’s send more billionaires to the Titanic
does the titanic sub count?
From what I’ve gathered so far I’d say that every superyatch sinks quickly but I’m not super confident
i’m guessing these pleasure super yachts are not hardcore sea fairing vessels that might not handle sudden extreme weather at all well. also might not be captained by people that would do all the right things in those weather conditions.
obviously i have no idea if any of that is true
In this case they suspect there were a number of features on the yacht that contributed to its sinking. It had the world’s tallest aluminum mast, a retractable keel and large openings for windows and hatches all over the main deck that were most likely unsecured at the time.
They suspect she was knocked down by high winds or a water spout. Sailboats get knocked down all the time but all the factors I listed above may have contributed to her being unable to right herself quickly and subsequently filling with water.
It really would have to be willful negligence from the designer, the engineer and the insurance company not to have the keel and mast balanced so that if it gets knocked down even to the point the mast touches the water it will self right as long as the boat does not take on water. It’s the whole point of a keel on modern sailboats, retracting or not.
On a boat this valuable the insurance company would want underwritten engineer reports about the seaworthiness of the boat and will only insure you for pre agreed areas based on said report. It might not be insured but with a commercial crew that is highly unlikely.
If the keel was up for shallow draft or it fell off, this happened to a number of oyster yachts a while ago so its not that unusual, then they would be fucked. If it took on water in large quantities so that the bilge pumps could not cope, they would be fucked. However it should be unlikely that the windows are open during a storm with commercial crew onboard.
My guess is that the keel either part or all of it came off, that will fuck you even in calm seas.
From what I read it was also anchored, which according to my very own unscientific and probably incorrect hypothesis helped with the tipping over when the wind hit the tall mast because it couldn’t even try to float with the wind.
Well there’s extreme weather and there’s extreme weather. There have been reports that the yacht was struck by a waterspout, which is basically a tornado but over the water. I’m not sure if the strength of it has been reported or not, but given tornadoes have been known to throw trucks and train cars it doesn’t surprise me that it was likely powerful enough to capsize the yacht.
Unlike trucks & trains, a sailboat is designed to roll side-to-side. One current theory I’ve read is that the waterspout damaged the mast, causing it to unbalance the yacht (and possibly damaging the hull). The combination of being unbalanced and being slammed by the waterspout likely rolled the hull enough to flood it within seconds. Even if the mast wasn’t damaged, a tornado striking the yacht broadside would have likely been catastrophic depending on the strength of the storm. And waterspouts that powerful are still rather rare so I wouldn’t blame the captain for not anticipating it.
There are now some reports as well that the yacht sank in roughly one minute. If that’s the case then it means the yacht indeed rolled very quickly and took on a huge volume of water in very little time, so much that it was unable to right itself or that its bilge pumps could contend with it. Again, not something that could have really been anticipated.
I’ve seen a clip about that. Many hulls are styrofoam with fiberglass. It’s cheap, looks good, but doesn’t do well with collisions and bad weather. If that’s the case here is to be determined.
Go to any marina and 90% of the boats there are „styrofoam” and fiberglass. In this size range core fiberglass is a tested technology with many advantages over steel or aluminum hulls (those sink too when abused)
You see the Titanic was made out of steel and it didn’t handle collisions very well. Boats aren’t usually designed to hit things.
Get a boat with a torpedo belt
Have they considered water? My guess is water.
The front’s not supposed to fall off
It was outside the environment
That would be highly unusual
Karma.
“At 3.55, a mini tornado arrived,” Cefalù said. “The docks of the port diverted it and it hit the sailboat head-on.”
That seems like the most freak of freak accidents.
I bet it has something to do with a crew member saying “hey, this is too dangerous” and a billionaire saying, “do it or you’re going to lose your job”. like when Virgin Galactic got its FAA whatever revoked for Branson’s behavior on their first space flight
Oh, so this billionaire died on his superyacht? Oh noooooo…
another one bites the dust starts playing on the radio
I’ll never (with exceptions, but this isn’t one) root for someones death. But I’m sure as fuck not going to shed a tear over him. The kid on the other hand? That’s just awful.
Hearing a few thoughts about the adjustable keel being in the up position. If the ballast was lower that would have certainly helped with stability.
some dick opened the seacocks. duh.
orcas
I hope they use Bayesian statistics, however forlorn that hope
A frequentist would say this happens every so often and an investigation is unnecessary.
