Its really unlikely mostly because we’d have to go authoritarian as fuck to get the maga traitors out before they could seriously damage us from within
The Sierra Nevada make a great natural barrier on one side, then the big ass desert to the south, so getting large amounts of anything in once we cut ourselves off would actually be harder than youd think
If we successfully negotiated with Mexico, Canada, or someone to back our asses up we might be able to manage it just off the idea that bombing us to oblivion is a really bad idea for your supply of quite a few crops & your major entertainment for the country as well as the busy ass ports on our shores, and that’s before you consider how much the rest of the world would find such a move incredibly distasteful from a “holy shit what did you just do” aspect
All in all if ANY state can successfully pull it off, it’s California, but it’s not going to happen
I live in a rural part of a deep blue Northeast state and have been thinking about this a lot. Most of my surrounding area is predictably liberal college towns but the town next door to me is very MAGA and I have to drive through it to get to the highway. Honestly, I want to know what it takes to get those people to leave so that we can secure and expand a safe haven here…
There is also “constitutional convention” path to “a better union” (revoking current government). Secession when threatened by TX gets an ok vibe, but the “right wing states rights” gang sees invading California as completely hinged response, if they suggest it.
Very. The last time, warfare was far less asymmetric than it is now. Millions of people would need to be well past the point of “dying for their values and ideals” before that would get traction politically.
What’s the process like?
There literally isn’t one, or at least, not an official one; we’re not the EU. One spot on a map says “no” and the bigger spot on the map around it says “LOL… oh wait you’re serious?” Then they fight.
Also, the optics are very different for a state like California or any other economic powerhouse in the union. These places make up a huge chunk of the country’s GDP, so losing them would cost a massive chunk of the tax base. Plus, that would reduce the overall coastline of the remainder. Combined these outcomes are strategically “very bad”, further motivating the use of force to counter it.
Secession is a very complex subject. Besides the issues you mentioned there are tons of consequences of using force. The Civil War was over 160 years ago and we still have lingering grudges. How would our wealthy feel about the impacts of another one on their investments? Or on US bond values and the value of the dollar itself? I feel like analyzing the possibilities is far beyond my Econ 101 knowledge, but it seems like resolving a secession issue with negotiation would be vastly preferable to all parties involved than any armed conflict. I think it would come down to how the most influential people thought any outcome would affect them.
Realistically how likely is secession? Pretty unlikely, right? What’s the process like?
Its really unlikely mostly because we’d have to go authoritarian as fuck to get the maga traitors out before they could seriously damage us from within
The Sierra Nevada make a great natural barrier on one side, then the big ass desert to the south, so getting large amounts of anything in once we cut ourselves off would actually be harder than youd think
If we successfully negotiated with Mexico, Canada, or someone to back our asses up we might be able to manage it just off the idea that bombing us to oblivion is a really bad idea for your supply of quite a few crops & your major entertainment for the country as well as the busy ass ports on our shores, and that’s before you consider how much the rest of the world would find such a move incredibly distasteful from a “holy shit what did you just do” aspect
All in all if ANY state can successfully pull it off, it’s California, but it’s not going to happen
I live in a rural part of a deep blue Northeast state and have been thinking about this a lot. Most of my surrounding area is predictably liberal college towns but the town next door to me is very MAGA and I have to drive through it to get to the highway. Honestly, I want to know what it takes to get those people to leave so that we can secure and expand a safe haven here…
There is also “constitutional convention” path to “a better union” (revoking current government). Secession when threatened by TX gets an ok vibe, but the “right wing states rights” gang sees invading California as completely hinged response, if they suggest it.
Come and take it, flyovers! War is a drone-making contest now.
Very. The last time, warfare was far less asymmetric than it is now. Millions of people would need to be well past the point of “dying for their values and ideals” before that would get traction politically.
There literally isn’t one, or at least, not an official one; we’re not the EU. One spot on a map says “no” and the bigger spot on the map around it says “LOL… oh wait you’re serious?” Then they fight.
Also, the optics are very different for a state like California or any other economic powerhouse in the union. These places make up a huge chunk of the country’s GDP, so losing them would cost a massive chunk of the tax base. Plus, that would reduce the overall coastline of the remainder. Combined these outcomes are strategically “very bad”, further motivating the use of force to counter it.
Secession is a very complex subject. Besides the issues you mentioned there are tons of consequences of using force. The Civil War was over 160 years ago and we still have lingering grudges. How would our wealthy feel about the impacts of another one on their investments? Or on US bond values and the value of the dollar itself? I feel like analyzing the possibilities is far beyond my Econ 101 knowledge, but it seems like resolving a secession issue with negotiation would be vastly preferable to all parties involved than any armed conflict. I think it would come down to how the most influential people thought any outcome would affect them.
I agree, and can sympathize: I lack the education to see around all those corners. That said, I think that’s all plausible were it to happen.
I’ve thought for a long time that the US will end up as a collection of smaller countries. Not looking forward to the transition period.
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