cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ca/post/73158617
Burn baby burn!!!
“Many in the market feel we have no choice but for it to work out,”
Yes this is what it everyone feels like when they are in denial…
1970s: Microwaves are the stoves of the future!
2010s: The Metaverse is the future!
2020s: AI is the future!
looks like AI is slowling leaking out from the cyst rather than bursting.
what are you guys making for dinner tonight?
Tuna salad sandwich with one regular slice of bread, one butt slice, from a bag I accidentally left open yesterday. I need to go shopping pretty bad…
I’m not really seeing a bloodbath, S&P 500 still up more than 10% YTD.
If that is a bloodbath then what term are they going to use for an actual crash?
The AI sector has suffered losses to the tune of 20-59% over the last month or so.
Yes some of them are still up YTD (some are even down YTD), but at the same time, the situation in 1929 was similarly less bad looking if you started from January of that year, but the graphs showing how bad it was in practice always start in September.
Sensational clickbait slop.
The
20982008 crash was caused by the rate of mortgage growth beginning to slow. It was a confidence issue in MBS, similar to the AI bubble now. People are starting to lose confidence in their investments and wondering if it is still a good idea to buildout massive data centers.At least my portfolio is hedged by defensive stocks if the crash happens.
People have been feeling shaky about the market for years. It’s all built on unicorn farts and nothing makes sense anymore.
The 2098 crash was caused by the rate of mortgage growth beginning to slow. It was a confidence issue in MBS, similar to the AI bubble now>
I read that typo like a satire historical comment
Someone will falsely quote this post decades into the future as a prophecy for the crash of 2098.
I’ve added a reminder in my calendar for January 2098.
Lol like we’re going to have computers then. I’ll be happy if we get to keep indoor plumbing
Lol that’s why I quoted the original seconds after it was made. I’m no stranger to typos and spelling errors and the mocking that follows
I sincerely hope that a few of the fascist tech bros get absolutely obliterated. If all of them were gone with the snapped of a finger the world would instantly be a better place.
By ‘obliterated’ you mean ‘bailed out’ right?
I don’t think a bail out would work (which isn’t to say the Trump administration won’t try it - you can never confidently predict they won’t do something stupid). If they can’t work out how to make a profit after $2T of capex, more money on the furnace isn’t going to help.
As much as the bank bailouts after 2008 left a bad taste in my mouth, banks are at least self evidently a profitable business that were able to successfully use the bailout to stay afloat.
I could potentially see the AI companies’ creditors getting a bailout but most of them seem to be private equity so a bailout would be really unpopular (although see my above comments on not betting against the current US leadership doing something stupid).
On the bright side, there’s a real chance we could see Larry Ellison go personally bankrupt. He lives on loans secured against Oracle shares and Oracle is currently indebted up to its eyeballs and borrowing at basically junk rates. If it goes down, those loans get called and he eats shit (to the delight of Sun Microsystems fans everywhere).
In China, the AI bubble has already burst
… The meltdown, tanking the mainland STAR50 index of AI and semiconductor leaders by 40% in less than four months and vaporising some $480 billion in market value, is an ill omen for wobbly world markets and a dampener on China’s efforts at encouraging its savers into stocks to fund the AI boom.
… With AI stocks running to 42% of China’s market capitalisation and 57% of turnover across mainland-listed A-shares and Hong Kong’s H-shares, according to Goldman Sachs, few in a market dominated by small investors have escaped pain.
… Shares in robot-maker Unitree, 8,000 times oversubscribed by retail buyers at listing, have halved since they started trading in August, and chipmaker CXMT has lost more than a quarter of its value in the past month.
… Chipmakers MetaX Integrated Circuits and Moore Threads Technology, which leapt 700% and 400% respectively on their market debuts last year, have also halved in value since July.
… Frustration that an investment theme backed by Beijing has ended so badly has driven many investors into defensive assets and is likely to slow equity fundraising by tech firms.
A remarkable detail in China, citing the report:
The frenzy and its fallout contrast with a push by authorities to improve returns and dampen volatility by cracking down on leverage and high-frequency trading. State-backed investors were sellers into rallies to keep gains in check.
[Emphasis mine.]
I can’t wait to find out what’s gonna happen to my retirement money because of these absolute fuckers.
There are still 493 other companies.
Aaaaand it’s gone.
Move it to something that isn’t as heavily invested in tech stocks?
I think I’ll hold off investing in my index fund for a while longer lol
I can understand being wary about the stock market right now. However, inflation is at 3.7% right now for the year up from 3.4%. You can continue hold onto your money, but it buys approximately 3.7% less than it did in
January12 months ago overall. If you’d put that money into the marketin Jan 1a year ago instead of having 3.7% less, you’d have a 6.82% more now, but you can’t go back in time with that knowledge to do that.If you’re looking to park your money safely without having it eaten up by inflation, currently US short term (4-weeks long) treasury bills are paying a bit more than 3.9%. .2% profit is not much profit, but its better than a 3.7% loss in value.
edit: corrected specifics, thank you @boonhet@sopuli.xyz
To be clear that 3.7% is the 12 months ending in September, not January through October. Inflation is rarely measured YTD, it’s usually the trailing 12 months
Meaning the
but it buys approximately 3.7% less than it did in January overall.
part of your comment is inaccurate
Thank you for that accuracy, I’ve corrected my post
🎶 LET IT POP, LET IT POP, LET IT TOUCH A PRICK AND POP! 🎶
don’t stop i’m almost there
Inb4 bailouts by the USA govt
They literally don’t have enough money, even if they cut everything.
The longer you hold it off, the worse it’s going to be.
Finally.
