• Flying Squid@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    44
    arrow-down
    4
    ·
    3 months ago

    according to leading bookmakers.

    Oh for fuck’s sake, can we please get one post-debate article that isn’t highly partisan or just moronic?

    • The Snark Urge@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      19
      ·
      edit-2
      3 months ago

      That would involve having a media environment that isn’t controlled by billionaires who are highly involved in manufacturing consent for regressive policies.

    • mecfs@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      8
      ·
      3 months ago

      I mean the betting markets are generally aligned with extravagant statistical prediction models.

      After all these markets have hundreds of millions poured into them, and people are trying to win not loose. Obviously there are still problems with them, and that headline really should have included “according to bookmakers”.

      • dragontamer@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        2
        arrow-down
        1
        ·
        edit-2
        3 months ago

        Are you sure about that?

        If I make a $10,000,000 bet in one direction to change the betting odds to make everyone think my viewpoint is more popular, that’s a very cheap marketing campaign.

        Even if I lose all that money, it’s good marketing. Especially if I’m manipulating less popular topics with less $$$$ needed to change the odds.

        • mecfs@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          1
          ·
          3 months ago

          that’ll only change the odds on a single bookmaker. There are thousands on the election.

          Also it’s highly illegal to bet on an event you are part of (although that doesn’t seem to stop trump from doing other things).

          Additionally, to sway public opinion, influencing pollsters and the media (which we have objective proof of camapigns doing) is more effective. although they were mentioned in this article, they’ll be mentioned a lot less than polls.

          • dragontamer@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            1
            ·
            edit-2
            3 months ago

            Also it’s highly illegal to bet on an event you are part of (although that doesn’t seem to stop trump from doing other things).

            Illegal to who?

            FBI? Or some poor IT administrator who gives no shits about this issue?

            Additionally, to sway public opinion, influencing pollsters

            You’re using the fucking betting market as a poll. A system that is innately, and provably, influenced by money. Not even indirectly, but DIRECTLY influenced by money.

            Then you paper over this fact by saying “but people want to make money”, ignoring the fact that these campaigns are literally spending $100,000,000+ sums, losing money throughout a whole campaign to try to change public opinion by about 5%.

  • givesomefucks@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    14
    arrow-down
    3
    ·
    3 months ago

    Republicans will vote Republican no matter what.

    Dem voters have always needed a candidate they like and/or agree with to turnout en mass and get the Dem elected.

    It makes zero sense to keep blaming Dem voters for having standards instead of blaming party leaders for continuingly shoving candidates we don’t like down our throats.

    There is zero reason to keep pushing unpopular candidates.

    But because we all held our noses for Biden 4 years ago, he got to nominate DNC leadership and he picked idiots who say Biden is our only shot.

    Holding our noses and voting for a candidate whose not for basic parts of the party platform, just moves the party platform and makes it even harder to get votes the next election.

    • Carrolade@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      4
      arrow-down
      2
      ·
      3 months ago

      “Party leaders” did not shove Biden down our throats. Unless you’re arguing that the party leaders of the dems are all the suburban soccer moms of the countries, and their consistency at voting. Then yes, that’s true.

  • eran_morad@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    6
    ·
    3 months ago

    I fucking hate republicans and will vote D no matter what (check my comment history). That was an abysmal performance on biden’s part. Appearances really fucking matter in this age of the mindless, post-facts voter. Biden needs to GTFO.

  • CeruleanRuin@lemmings.world
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    3
    ·
    3 months ago

    Best case scenario at this point is one of them croaks before November. It’s insane to me that Biden even contemplated a second term, when the whole point of picking Kamala Harris as his VP was so she could be the young fit successor. It’s time to roll out plan B, guys.

    • catloaf@lemm.ee
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      3
      ·
      3 months ago

      Personally I don’t want a career prosecutor as president, either.