Russia is expanding its military infrastructure near the border with Finland, in what NATO officials describe as the early stages of a long-term buildup, The New York Times reported Monday.
They are “fucking with” NATO, historically, but not attack. Lots of “im not touching you im not touching you” on the borders and north sea. Military submarines where they are not supposed to be. Sudden declarations of artillery practice in international waters causing ship travel to reroute, then not actually doing practice…
The most direct confrontation was Turkiye shooting down Russian jets that flew into their airspace when bombing in Syria about ten years ago. During Azerbaidschans attacks on Armenia both NATO and Russia made sure to not get into direct contact. Nothing came out of it directly. The sabotages in Europe that are organized by Russia have been a thing since 2022, maybe late 2021 unless i missed some.
Yeah no. Even if the United States sits out on it’s dumb fat orange ass, Russia is not likely looking to pick an active fight with all of Europe when it’s disinformation warfare can disassemble Europe from the inside out, given enough time.
An active fight? Yeah, that’s not going to happen. A passive one, though? Might be an option. Carlo Masala recently published his new book If Russia wins: a scenario (No English translation yet). In it, he draws up a scenario where Russia, after defeating Ukraine, annexes a small Estonian town to test NATO’s resolve in the face of a limited Russian aggression. He bases this scenario on the German Re-occupation of the Rhineland, during which German troops had they faced any serious resistance by allied forces would have had to retreat. In the book NATO members are divided and dismiss the Estonians request for help under Article 5.
There is zero chance Russia is ever getting away with that
Is there? Given the rather reluctant support of Ukraine, which is about just enough to keep them in the fight, I’m afraid that at least some NATO members would rather give away a symbolic chunk of land than start a military confrontation. And yes, that would be the end of NATO.
Romania and Poland had multiple opportunities to show something when shahed drones fly and crash/explode over their territory, they chose to do nothing every time. When these nations are so afraid of even destroying drones over their own aerospace muscovytes will invade whoever they want and other nato countries will just cower and pretend that everything is fine.
Depends what you mean by NATO is no more. I can even imagine some scenarios where the end of NATO might make it less likely that they would invade. It all depends on the context.
My general point was that commentators in the west (and politicians and even the local) often treat russia as they want to see it, not how it is (i.e. based on historical fact and decades of quantitative and qualitative research on society in the current iteration of the russian empire).
Finalnd is a NATO member. Russia ain’t fucking with NATO
They are “fucking with” NATO, historically, but not attack. Lots of “im not touching you im not touching you” on the borders and north sea. Military submarines where they are not supposed to be. Sudden declarations of artillery practice in international waters causing ship travel to reroute, then not actually doing practice…
This needs to be said over and over - Russia is and has been at war with NATO for over a decade and NATO doesn’t seem to even realize it.
They’re constantly probing to see how much they can get away with without provoking a reaction.
At war for over a decade is a bit of a stretch.
The most direct confrontation was Turkiye shooting down Russian jets that flew into their airspace when bombing in Syria about ten years ago. During Azerbaidschans attacks on Armenia both NATO and Russia made sure to not get into direct contact. Nothing came out of it directly. The sabotages in Europe that are organized by Russia have been a thing since 2022, maybe late 2021 unless i missed some.
Depends on your definition of ‘war’. They’ve definitely been in rightist America’s ear about abandoning NATO since 2016.
Fifth-column activities are definitely acts of war. Their role in inflicting Trump on us was an undeniable act of war.
So is the US in Europe, South America, Middle East, Israel in all of the West, EU countries in Africa, China all over the world…
Trying to influence domestic policies in other countries is shitty, but it isnt war. Otherwise we are already in WW3 since many years.
When done by a hostile power, yes it is.
Is there a non hostile influence by foreign powers on domestic policies?
And by this logic we are already in World War III. Seems pretty calm still all things considered…
And let’s not forget the assassinations carried out using nerve agents and radioactive materials.
Well, we might find out soon enough.
Yeah no. Even if the United States sits out on it’s dumb fat orange ass, Russia is not likely looking to pick an active fight with all of Europe when it’s disinformation warfare can disassemble Europe from the inside out, given enough time.
An active fight? Yeah, that’s not going to happen. A passive one, though? Might be an option. Carlo Masala recently published his new book If Russia wins: a scenario (No English translation yet). In it, he draws up a scenario where Russia, after defeating Ukraine, annexes a small Estonian town to test NATO’s resolve in the face of a limited Russian aggression. He bases this scenario on the German Re-occupation of the Rhineland, during which German troops had they faced any serious resistance by allied forces would have had to retreat. In the book NATO members are divided and dismiss the Estonians request for help under Article 5.
If even a cm of NATO is invaded and not acted on the alliance is worthless. For each nations safety, they must act or be defenceless going forward.
There is zero chance Russia is ever getting away with that, especially after burning all their bridges in Ukraine.
Is there? Given the rather reluctant support of Ukraine, which is about just enough to keep them in the fight, I’m afraid that at least some NATO members would rather give away a symbolic chunk of land than start a military confrontation. And yes, that would be the end of NATO.
Romania and Poland had multiple opportunities to show something when shahed drones fly and crash/explode over their territory, they chose to do nothing every time. When these nations are so afraid of even destroying drones over their own aerospace muscovytes will invade whoever they want and other nato countries will just cower and pretend that everything is fine.
You don’t understand russian culture and mentality. Although in your defence, this is relatively common.
How so?
They would very much be willing to conquer the Baltic nations if the opportunity shows itself. The russians are obsessed with colonizing the baltics.
The author that you referred to, does he speak russian? Estonian? Ukrainian? I am genuinely curious.
I very much understand that but there is no such opportunity for an all out conquest until NATO is no more.
I don’t know.
Depends what you mean by NATO is no more. I can even imagine some scenarios where the end of NATO might make it less likely that they would invade. It all depends on the context.
My general point was that commentators in the west (and politicians and even the local) often treat russia as they want to see it, not how it is (i.e. based on historical fact and decades of quantitative and qualitative research on society in the current iteration of the russian empire).
Carlo Masala is German. Don’t know if he speaks other languages.
I’m really interested in how they could invade and occupy a Baltic state when their Baltic sea fleet is almost all underwater.
Disinformation warfare doesn’t keep a wartime economy afloat.
Neither does getting their poor struggling asses handed to them. But I don’t know if Putin is sane enough still to know that.
Actually, that does. It’s what has been happening since 3 years in Ukraine.
They aren’t being run by rational people, so they probably will attack, and most of the europe will suck it up.
No, but it’s going to keep some resources and equipment in Finland, instead of being sent to Ukraine.
this is true for both sides…
If they do it wouldn’t be Finland anyway