You know, DOGE, fascist president and corporations dictating what people can do, institutions being ruined, laws being ignored. Is there any way out of that or is it over? Is the USA done?
In the short term: Yes. Unless the US military decides to remove a sitting president but that is extremely unlikely.
In the long term: Yes, but also no. Fascism is extremely inefficient and expensive and the US is destroying its own economy and pushing away all of its allies and former trade partners. Things will get very rough but it will not last forever. There will be a lot of rebuilding that needs to be done.
Unfortunately this has been a long time coming. The United States has never really been united and it was only a matter of time before another possible civil war loomed on the horizon.
You are being way too optimistic. A lot of people will needlessly die, not only from violence but also disease, starvation, suicide and natural disasters.
I would say it’s been coming since BEFORE the civil war.
People always take my words out of context when I say that life in general would have been better for everyone long term if the south won.
People take that to mean that I’m pro-slavery. I’m not. If the south won, slavery would have died out naturally by the early 1900s (assuming confederate america lasted that long)
But if the south had won, and been able to leave the union? I feel like they’d have made the worst possible choices for their country on a repeated basis. I feel like their country would have crumbled and disolved into multiple smaller countries. The united states would have continued expanding out west. Texas is probably the only former state that wouldn’t have crumbled.
The rest of the confederate states? They’d be struggling to survive, last in the world in education, terrible healthcare, basically a bunch of 3rd world countries. But the rest of the USA? SO MUCH HEALTHIER FOR IT!!! All these cancers trying to tear down OUR country today, wouldn’t be part of our country. They can go fuck up the country of Alabama. Go nuts.
The pure amount of butterfly effect policies that would be different is mind blowing.
To me, the south winning isn’t about slavery. It’s about taking this large lump sum of the worst people in the country, and cutting them free like you cut away a tumor to get rid of cancer.
This is complete hogwash speculation. You have no idea what would have happened to the North if the split had been permanent.
You say this but it’s hardly just the south that voted for trump. As you mentioned, the butterfly effect could have changed things dramatically. Things still could have turned out worse for everyone.
Though things are pretty crap now so I can definitely relate to your thought process.
To be fair though, Texas seceded once already and within a year or two was begging to be taken back. They probably would have crumbled too.
What if this is karma for invading and taking half of Mexico? There weren’t slavers or shittier-that-usual people in the region before that.
I mean, if the united states is getting karma for invading and annexing other peoples land, SURELY you’d think there would have been some repercussions from Native Americans, right? Hell, even Canada arguably has some leeway to give us karma if that’s the case.
And Hawaii.
And technically Puerto Rico, and the Somoa Islands, and Guam.
Even though Vietnam isn’t, nor has it ever been a US territory, they still know what it’s like to be invaded by us. We were never trying to take land for ourselves, but we WERE trying to take land for our cold war ally. We just failed is all. And yet…for everybody reading this from a country that ISN’T America, here’s the weird thing. In our schools, they teach vietnam in history as if WE WON. Which I assume the rest of the world easily see’s how absurd that is. Here in America? There are PLENTY of people who think we’ve never lost a war. There are people who defend the 2001-2020 invasion of multiple middle eastern countries as a war we won. Some of them think it was multiple wars in a short amount of time we won. Others think it was one continuous war that we won. But those people exist. I’ve met many of them.
Now, with all that said, NOBODY calls them freedom fries. Nobody. Never even heard of a single person who calls them that. It was a 2 week thing on tv, and then everybody just shrugged and called it stupid. Which is exactly what I’m hoping this whole gulf of america/mexico thing is. Just political theater, and then it’s over because it’s stupid.
You should read about the Spanish missions and their treatment of the native people on the west coast. But also the Mexicans weren’t innocent of things either. They were constantly having political violence and even voluntarily returned monarchies. (yes plural)
As. Mexican, I agree with you. The conquistadores weren’t people of the highest caliber, and while the catholic monks were better, their mission was evangelizing at any cost, even if it meant killing people who didn’t want to. Even prehispanic people could be brutal.
The main difference between colonial Mexico and USA was that slavery wasn’t a thing here, because the evangelized became full-fledged catholics, having a saved soul and all. Something unthinkable for the slavers, who justified their acts because blacks “didn’t have souls”.
Mexican creoles, the hacendados, found a loophole: Catholics could still be exploited by crushing, multigenerational debt. That’s why we had a century of turmoil after the revolution(s), right after the century of turmoil after our independence from Spain.
Guess my point is: by the time USA invaded and forcefully took half our country, we didn’t have slavers (the hacendado’s loophole was gone), and definitely didn’t trade humans as things. Your south brought back evils that were gone at the time.
Yeah that’s true. The American South was exceptionally evil. I don’t think we’ve ever properly processed that as a country.
How exactly would slavery have died out “naturally” in a union made up entirely of slave states who’d just fought and won a war to defend it? I get your point about letting the south stand in its own so it could fall, but you are too casually sweeping aside the issue of slavery. “Yeah yeah - that would pass naturally - now let me tell you my MAIN point….”
Frankly, it’skind of the opposite: the slavery part of the argument is obvious, simply because IIRC the model of chattel slavery the US south operated on was only viable through the constant flow of new people to feed into the meatgrinder. The “better off” part is kinda dubious.
I’m afraid you do not recall correctly. One of the features of American slavery is that it was population self-sustaining. You can see #4 on this UNESCO page. I like the way they put it: American slavery created a people where there was none before.
Northerners weren’t simply more high minded than southerners concerning slavery - industrialization lessened their dependence on slaves to the point where they could abandon slavery without the economy crumbling.
Presumably this would happen in the south as they industrialized as well.
Agriculture still has not eliminated manual labor, son.
Oh OK
Yep the South was invested in agriculture, to this day a labor-intensive sector, largely due to advantages in climate and geography which were basically fixed. So how again would slavery have spontaneously ended in the South again? It’s a question - please answer it.
You’ve convinced me. I hadn’t thought if it quite that way.
(The previous comment was unedited at the time this was written, just in case)
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Lol. Americans continuing to vastly overestimate their contribution to WW2
Personally I think this resurgence is a highly specific cultural moment that is coming as religion dies off and the white population of America teeters toward minority status.
Since the US birth rate began to decline (natural phenomenon that happens to all developed nations) its strong immigration has held it up. But that has had an accumulating demographic effect. White people lost their official hegemony a long time ago but now they are facing the prospect of losing their simple majority and it scares the living shit out of them. It’s not just because privilege sees equality as oppression. It’s also because they know that they have treated others incredibly badly, and deserve to be castigated should they lose power.
That’s why this Trump admin is so ugly. It’s the death spasm of a dying culture. That’s why this Trump admin is hollow at the center: it’s backed by a group that has no future and can only harken back to the past. This is why this Trump admin is openly undemocratic: they no longer have the numbers to play the game.
This too shall pass, but at great cost. The USA is the greatest political prize there has ever been and it won’t be let go of lightly.
All these years, preppers may have been right. Having a well supplied fortress of your own can turn out to be very handy.
It’s still a shitty situation. Really what’s a shitty situation with an extra 20 kg of coffee in your basement, but still a shitty situation? The prepper fortress is a very unrealistic thing to try to strive for anyhow for anyone living in a city, majority of people. It’s the widespread doomsday mentality and the downward spiral of the conspiracy nutheads that got the USA where it is today anyhow… Good luck hanging on in your basement for 10 years. That’s easily how long it can take if it goes full fascist. Even then, hard to compare, the implosion of a nuclear armed superpower has only happened once before in history (Soviet Union), and that shit ain’t over yet either, Ukraine is a direct continuation of the process. So they’re like 35-ish years in, where USA seems to be heading now. Abandoning NATO is the equivalent of the implosion of the Warsaw Pact.
It is also with saying that America will be a different thing on the other end of this. No crumbling empire comes back the same.
The US is less one country than the EU members are and we are a long way off of becoming one.
The funny things is americans were like “We need guns to protect ourselves from tyranny.” But of course, the ones with the guns are precisely the ones siding with tyrants.
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They were still a democracy back then, now it’s an oligarchy.
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I mean, you’ll get to see the difference between a bad and discriminatory democracy and a pure dictatorship soon enough. If you think an economical crash will bring back progressivism, I wish you good luck but I think it’s really naive. At this point with the gafam siding with pedo-president, they just wait for automation and AI to get a little further before getting rid of half of the country. And since it’s the US, the other half of the country will take care of it for them. An economical crash would be the perfect setup for this. I’m not even american but for the first time of my life I’m considering getting a gun.
you’ll get to see the difference between a bad and discriminatory democracy and a pure dictatorship soon enough.
The former elected to enfranchise the aforementioned blacks, the latter is deporting people on a hunch, for instance.
That’s an interesting point, because in terms of wealth inequality and unbridled exploitative capitalism stuff was pretty fucking dreadful back then too. But I don’t think there was as much interest in the super rich taking control of the government, because the government didn’t do that much and had never really been a problem for the wealthy (apart from that time they tried to abolish slavery…)
I’m normally a “folks need to work together, big problems need big solutions” European lefty, but seeing the horror of what a powerful central government can do when it’s in the hands of crazy dipshits… It certainly highlights the benefits of small governments and localised power. Maybe this will lead to growth of some forces of progress that aren’t the federal government? The question is whether after the inevitable crash and burn, the next government will be willing to introduce the actual constraints, checks and balances to not let this happen again?
Power market’s going to get real funky in over the next 6 months as utilities run out of runway on their renewable programs.
Those pricks had one fucking job and they absolutely blew it. Boot lickers all of them, it makes me sick.
‘Under no pretext should arms and ammunition be surrendered; any attempt to disarm the workers must be frustrated, by force if necessary’
-Karl Marx
Lots of Americans have guns. Not just conservatives.
Oh yeah then explain this *gestures broadly at everything*
The chuds have more guns, thanks to many years of lefties demanding guns be removed from society and giving theirs up while the chuds just bought more (thanks for that one, Dad and friends)
They’re also usually a liiiitle more ready to use them, and the law is a looooot more ready to defend them than they are us
Right wingers have organized militias for decades. These might be made up of stupid fat fucks, but they have trained how to organize, communicate, and do logistics.
The number and quality of weapons is one factor. Wars are won by logistics, communication, and coordination. If you have an existing social political network, you can arm it pretty quickly. A group that knows how to set up a music festival in the middle of nowhere, can learn how to run a military camp.
Being a shitty person is multidisciplinary, apparently.
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“He who saves his country does not violate any law.” -Donald Trump (reading a post-it note handed to him by Felon Musk, quoting Napoleon, or something)
He’s old and doesn’t have much time left. The really problematic people are all around him and they are many.
True hydra situation going on
Shoot the dictator and prevent the war? But the dictator is merely the tip of the whole festering boil of social pus from which dictators emerge; shoot one, and there’ll be another one along in a minute. Shoot him too? Why not shoot everyone and invade Poland? In fifty years’, thirty years’, ten years’ time the world will be very nearly back on its old course. History always has a great weight of inertia.
-Terry Pratchett (Lords and Ladies)
Been thinking about this quote a lot lately. The fact that Trump is so popular shows that he’s just the symptom of a deeper, possibly terminal disease.
Nobody is saying it would solve the problem but it might make me feel a little better
The fact that Trump is so popular shows that he’s just the symptom of a deeper, possibly terminal disease.
Capitalism
There’s a lot of the “atheist” tech bros that still peasant-brain worship the market with human sacrifices as if it will bear them miracles. I like to tell them “You’re an atheist just like me, except I go one god further.”
inb4 moderation
Shitty time to be alive when it’s no longer cool to shoot Nazis.
Who has a good recipe for cooking the rich
Trump is just the convenient caricature of a puppet pushed forward to be the face and disorganise everything. When he dies he’ll be replaced by someone else capable of filling that role. It wouldn’t surprise me if the follow-up person is already known in their circles.
Trump is old and messed up. The propaganda rocketing him up can just as easily shoot him down. He is here to do damage and to disrupt and corrupt the system. He’s here to weed out the failsafes against fascism/monarchy so a new political model can take over.
When he’s done enough, someone else will step forward to rebuild and ‘repair the damage’ but only in such a way that the fascist/oligarchy gains more power and the majority of people lose more power.
Not that I’m opposed to the idea on principle, but realistically that kind of long wolf adventurism would only make things worse.
I hate to say it, but yes. Everything we’ve predicted from trump has come true thus far.
The insurrection was predicted
The migrant camps were predicted
The ice raids were predicted
Roe v Wade was predicted
SellingGiving Ukraine to Russia was predictedBanning DEI was predicted
The list goes on but more importantly these were all seen as hypothetical worst case scenarios. We should stop treating the next steps like they are hypothetical. America has fallen, and civil war is next.
Former presidents at least recognized they had the responsibility to take care of both the people who voted for them and the people who didn’t. Trump only sees the people who voted for him and the people he needs to make an example of.
I hate to say it, but the DNC is weak and won’t help us anymore. I supported Kamala like hell and believed that they could figure it out but they just don’t and won’t.
I’m not a violent person. I hate the thought that I’d ever be forced into a situation where I need to either learn how to fight or die (because right now I’m SOL). I never wanted to find myself rooting for assassins and feeling like the world would be better off of certain people were dead. I’d rather believe the world would be better off if certain people were alive.
But all I see in the future is a federal coup backed by sycophants in the Senate and supreme Court that then collides with the governors of blue states who won’t bend the knee.
TL;Dr if we don’t go full dictator, we are going to civil war, and we deserve it.
In the short term, yes.
If trump remains in office after this term, absolutely yes.
If we get a different admin - not just another republicrat trump clone - they’re going to have to spend an inordinate amount of time fixing all of trump’s fuckups. One of which should be restricting any wannabe monarch’s ability to rule by decree in the US. So yeah, we’re fucked, and we’re gonna have to spend a lot of effort getting unfucked, digging ourselves out of an oligarchy hole, instead of moving forward from a continually advancing starting point.
E: allies are already turning away from us, politically and economically. They’ll form new alliances and relationships that the US doesn’t get to be a part of, or at least won’t get a leading position in. Same with things like soft power from international aid. China will step in, maybe the EU or even Russia. We lose the goodwill, stability, and any economic “ins” we could have achieved with that soft power. We’re fucked in lots of ways.
During my lifetime, the view people have of the US has completely changed.
It used to be “When I grow up, I want to move there.” and “Oh, you went to the US on vacation? AWESOME”.
Now it’s “Why the fuck would you go there, are you stupid?”Agreed on all counts.
We lose the goodwill
Gone. It’s gone. I’m your neighbor. There’s no more goodwill. It’s been completely replaced with desire to see your hubris teach a collective lesson, and a process of internal reflection on how we can not end up like you.
My country looked up to the US as a charismatic winner with a big ego and an anger problem, who turned full coked up psychopath now. I listened to the Fall of Civilizations-Podcast a lot and this feels like one. It’s scary to watch and I feel sorry for all the good people living in this mess. But I agree, there is no sympathy left. Let the raging insanity humble the evil empire.
Is your country Germany? Please don’t repeat our mistakes AND the mistakes of your past! The AfD gaining ground is very worrisome.
We’re kin. Fall of civ is my dystopian lullaby. I can hear that piano refrain, but it’s about us now.
I read an interview with the guy, he said that there are only a few fallen civilizations left to talk about and that he wants to end his podcast with an episode about us and our (first time ever) global civilization. Looking forward to that.
On the other hand, I read and listened to Kim Stanley Robinson a lot. In this podcast, he explains why he doesn’t want to write dystopian novels, that they comfortably trap our mind. That we need utopian stories to not give up and let them™ win. I think he has a point.
Hope you effectively learn that lesson. I don’t blame any country for turning away from the US. Stupid people electing destructive narcissists and doing absolutely nothing to prevent it.
3 generations of people ‘voting according to their pocketbooks’ makes an easily controlled monoculture.
Their pocketbooks were morons for three generations, too.
a process of internal reflection on how we can not end up like you.
Better focus on that really hard, because the rise of far-right parties around the world shows a lot of people are heading in the same direction. Absolutely condemn us, but watch your own back yards as well.
You’re 100% correct. My unscientific polling suggests to me that 8/10 Canadians thought Elon was a force for good about a year ago.
We also had a cadre of MAGA north sticking flags on their cars, honking nonstop, shitting in the streets, and blocking the capital and the border when we had COVID restrictions in place. Today, zero percent of them would have a problem being the 51st state, for all their bleating about it being about them protecting “my freedoms” for me. I’m proud to see our flag being displayed this time though, because I’m not dubious about the motivation, but this is no time to stop being vigilant about what little democracy we have left.
Yeah no, this will be long term
First trump term, him fucking over all allies is something the allies could forgive. Second time, not so much. Allies now know they can’t rely on the US to be a trustworthy ally.
Trump already destroyed all soft power, he wants to reduce military spending by 50% too, so hard power will be down the drain as well.
Then he’s destroying the economy, he increased highcorruption like there is no tomorrow, he is destroying education and he is destroying all oversight on companies
He’s working hard on destroying democratic institutions too so forget fair elections, as if the US ever had any.
IMHO, the US will never recover from trump, and that is what it deserves. It always had the great chance to be truely great but it fucked itself around every corner trying to please the rich
It’s some very good news if he’s indeed dramatically downsizing the military. Gives Canada and Mexico a fighting chance! Will Canada be USA’s next Vietnam experience?
Depends how that happens. I’ld see them sell off lots of high tech gear to highest bidding crazy people for a quick cash grab. Same amount of weapons, less controlled.
Canadian Moose Cavalry, anyone?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mentally_ill_monarchs
Trump is the first very televised idiot for this list… Tho the people are even less sane for REelecting him
he wants to reduce military spending by 50% too, so hard power will be down the drain as well.
You say this like it’s a bad thing
Yes.
The amount of harm already done to your country by Trump and Musk is immeasurable, and will take a generation or more to recover from.
The amount of harm done to your standing in the world is equally bad. The world was skeptical after Trump’s first term fucked over the rest of the world, but we were hopeful that maybe the US had learned their lesson?
Nope. They elected a fascist. They RE-elected a known fascist, felon, rapist, idiot-child, psychopath. Worse, they bolstered Musk to get into a seat of unauthorized and unimaginable power.
When Trump announced his idiotic tarrifs, Canada collectively said “that’s it - we’re divorcing.” When he pulled back on the idea for 30 days, Canada said “don’t care, still divorcing.”
Trump is following the exact model of Hitler, and it’s only a matter of time until he actually invades either Greenland or Canada if he’s not stopped. The USA has to collapse into ruin and rebuild from scratch before anyone is going to trust them again.
Yep. We will need Nuremberg trials to actually move on from this.
It’s a good point and deeply concerning.
It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if Trump decided to invade somewhere just because he can.
Especially if his economic measures start making him look bad.
Trump ordering an invasion of Canada and the military going along with it, will be his demonstration of full powers.
He wants a grand victory parade.
And then begins the real fun. The assassinations, the pipe bombings, etc. Americans won’t allow an invasion on Canada. Things will get incredibly ugly.
I wouldn’t be so sure. Copy Russia’s playbook.
Let’s say, it’s just a short special military operation to clear Vancouver of fentanyl imports from China. You don’t need the whole military on board for that. A few battalions is enough. A preceding crisis could be created that then provides a reason. The city doesn’t even need to be taken in a battle. Occupying Canada’s highway 1, railway, and blockading the port could lead to a peaceful handover of the city.
The next step is then the US needs a strategic land bridge to protect Alaska against Russia, so BC and Yukon will be temporarily under US administration.
With Mexico it’s even easier. Say cartel and drugs, special military operation, and that’s that.
Copy Russia’s playbook.
Or, you know, the playbook of the US in all its past invasions?
The US playbook usually means having the support of allies. They lost the trust of all of them.
A generation seems very generous. The only path back to US hegemony I see is Fascism: we’ve burned our bridges and I don’t think the world will be willing to work with us for a long time. But I don’t even think the current batch are interested in US hegemony.
Military power and wealth have an irrisisatable pull. China can still make deals and do diplomacy. Even North Korea can cut deals with Russia. Russia and Iran work together. One nations pariah state is anothers opportunity.
The rest of the world will hedge their bets, but if the US negotiators start talking sense again after the trump admin they will attend the meetings and make agreements hoping for the best. International law people live and breathe the hypocrisy of tyrants and democrats alike.
The optimism of the 1990s is dead, but that was a lie even then. The US reputation as the “leader of the free world” is dead. It was a self appointed title anyway.
The world will keep spinning and deals will still be made by non idiots.
If the predictions in this thread of a hot civil war in the US prove true, then deals will be made with whatever comes out of that.
I hope not, but I am not optimistic about the next few years/decades
Well, it depends on how you define the USA. You mean the Republic of the United States of America? Yeah, no, that’s dead. It is currently dead. It died when the SCOTUS made the president functionally beyond criminal prosecution, and everyone has just kind of been playing weekend at Bernie’s since then (though the Trump administration is dropping the pretense pretty quickly). Don’t get me wrong, it’s been dying for a long time, but that was the exact moment it was declared dead. No matter what happens, the republic as we knew it is dead and is not coming back. Nobody believes in the constitution anymore; among our leadership there are only either those who are in a hurry to destroy it, or those who are unwilling to defend it. I think a lot of the American populace haven’t sincerely believed in the constitution as an effective charter for governance for a while, too. Imo, we’re less than a year from the legislature being dissolved in some fashion of another, unless they just hang on like some ceremonial vestigial organ.
What we get to decide now is what comes next. That’s what nobody’s sure about. Are we going to have a middle-east style theocratic government? Italian fascism? Maybe the military defends the constitution from all enemies foreign and domestic and we re-form the republic? German fascism? Neofeudalism? Peaceful balkanization? Hot balkanization? COULD IT BE?! BY GOD, it’s the ghost of Lenin with a steel chair! Or maybe we’ll get something entirely new? It’s frankly impossible to guess while we’re living in it. I think cold balkanization is both the most likely and most optimistic scenario. IN THE MEANWHILE, yeah, you’re still going to see all the window trimmings of the USA; the maps will still say USA, we’ll at least nominally still have the things that make America America (like the constitution still sitting in its fancy protective case, as though the GOP didn’t just wipe Trump’s ass with it), it’ll all look weirdly normal while they make the republic’s corpse do a funny little jig.
maybe we’ll get something entirely new?
The French are on their fifth republic already. A new constitution with better guardrails and different voting system is possible. The USA has a very deeply ingrained idea of freedom and democracy and is unlikely to lose it completely. It might be a good idea to already start thinking about how that new constitution should look like.
Balkanization or a civil war before that happens is certainly in the cards.
Maybe the military
Trump will try and purge all non loyalist officers from the military. That could lead to a fracturing of the military. California for example has big navy, air force, and marines bases, as well as military industry. The states have national guards already and whole units could defect from the federal military to the guard.
If that leads to an internal cold war, balkanization, or a civil war remains to be seen. It will make the US far less able to project force internationally. Queue China taking Taiwan without much US intervention.
’s the ghost of Lenin with a steel chair! Or maybe we’ll get something entirely new? It’s frankly impossible to guess while we’re living in it. I think cold balkanization is both the most likely and most optimistic scenario. IN THE MEANWHILE, yeah, you’re still going to see all the window trimmings of the USA; the maps will still say USA, we’ll at least nominally still have the things that make America America (like the constitution still sitting in its fancy protective case, as though the GOP didn’t just wipe Trump’s ass with it), it’ll all look weirdly normal while they make the republic’s corpse do a funny little jig.
to date, that 400,000,000 pew-pew stick and freedom rod are proving super effective against tyranny. Civil was is becoming more and more likely though.
I think cold balkanization is both the most likely and most optimistic scenario.
I’m curious why you think it’s most likely. Most optimistic, I agree.
Lol wut. It died a lot longer ago
Okay, I’m not trying to be shitty with you, I’m actually interested. Why don’t you make your case for when you think the US republic died?
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Citizens United would be a decent candidate. Once it was established that donations were protected political speech, it effectively legalized bribery, and made oligarchy essentially inevitable. Most of the missteps since then have been motivated by folks trying to simultaneously play to populist talking points but also placate billionaire donors. The left needed an actual positive message, like the kind Bernie Sanders was pushing, that would energize folks and unite the overeducated with the working class, but that was never going to be acceptable to the donor class, and so candidates like him always had to be shoved aside for someone who would clearly cater to corporate needs. And someone who would clearly cater to corporate needs was always going to be a really tough sell and not really a solution to the needs of the moment.
That doesn’t really account for the rise of the tech bro fascist accelerationists like Mencius Moldbug and the Dark Enlightenment, which is a big part of the current moment and accounts for how the far right was able to hoodwink some billionaires into voting for a social collapse that seems very likely to hurt them also. But Citizens United still seems like a fair candidate for a point at which some of the last paths away from this outcome were foreclosed.
Just wanted to say: react now. Their actions will slowly get normalized and it will be a much harder fight once culture starts working against you
The silver lining here is that with now 8 years of abolishing civil/workers rights, technology and social development being suppressed and Americans falling so objectively behind in most measurable fields, hopefully Americans can get over their blatantly false sense of exceptionalism and become comfortable just being another part of the world.
Exceptionalism and nationalism has more to do with the propaganda people are being fed, and less with the actual reality they are living. It will take more than a hard downturn in quality-of-life I think.
Yea. I’m sure they will be humbled like the people of North Korea, who think their supernatural leader invented hamburgers and the electric guitar.
North Koreans don’t think this. Everybody knows its bullshit. The point is not for people to believe in the bullshit, the point is normalizing the government to get away with obvious bullshit. And this pattern is not exclusive to North Korea at all.
How do you know everyone knows its bullshit?
When I was in the Russia – my last time was as late as 2019 – the shocking thing was to notice that people there really think their country is somehow a good and exemplatory place! At least in the Russia people should by all logic understand it’s all bullshit. But in practical terms they don’t. They go with it.
Nah there’s still plenty of cognitive dissonance to go around
technology (…) being suppressed
What technology or technology development is being suppressed?
The USA are still leading in most technological fields and have a dominant position.
The US does not have a dominant position in:
microchips.
batteries.
solar.
material science.
fusion.
energy.
computer science.
automotive.
displays.
The list goes on.
If you still think the USA is leading in tech, you are sorely misinformed about the state of the technological world(to be fair, it Is startling how rapidly the US has fallen out of grace in many of these technological fields).
The US is either barely clinging to previous legacies of prowess in tech fields to match other countries or falling behind rapidly, and without innovative latitude, federal grants or funding for research, they’re falling behind even further.
the US does not have the technological edge it once did; scientists, officials from the department of defense, everybody in the know agrees and have been making public statements about how quickly the US is falling behind in critical scientific and technological fields.
The US is still leading in aerospace and defense. Boeing is in a slump, but military planes are top notch. SpaceX is a decade ahead of the global competition at least.
computer science
All the biggest and leading companies in that area are still based in the US. American companies dominate the market for software and internet services. The possibly most disruptive technology AI is also firmly in the hands of the USA.
You’re also missing biotechnology as another key sector, where the US is doing very well.
the US does not have the technological edge it once did;
That much is clear. It’s still doing very good though.
The amount of money spent on R&D is still huge in the USA and it attracts top minds from across the globe.
you first claimed that the US is still leading in most technological fields.
this is false, as I pointed out in my previous comment.
your new tack is the US “is still doing very good, though”
this is also incorrect, largely a belief based on past achievements and cultural stories.
“aerospace”:
a private company innovated aerospace technology despite the US government’s reluctance to invest in aerospace technology.
China has been investing in space, and are planning to build space stations and moon bases, and have been having regular launches.
“defense”: We are not ahead of the game anymore. US dod officials have been very clearly saying for Over a decade that the US might already be behind China in key areas of defense, AI weapons systems among those, despite spending 4 to 10 times as much on their defense budget.
“All the biggest and leading companies in that area are still based in the US.”
biggest? okay.
leading? in what world is Microsoft a leading technological innovator?
they cannot even compete with a free operating system despite decades of a head start and hundreds of billions more capital.
Apple? they haven’t been innovative in 15 years, depend on slave labor, and their newest phones aren’t even playing catch up with East Asian phones anymore, hardware or software.
“You’re also missing biotechnology…”
I wasn’t listing literally every field the US was failing in, I was refuting your false notion that the US was still leading in most technological fields.
“The possibly most disruptive technology AI is also firmly in the hands of the USA.”
not according to AI researchers, AI CEOs, computer scientists, and the US DOD.
and again, any prowess US companies had in AI was due to the mass exploitation of workers abroad.
“The amount of money spent on R&D is still huge in the USA”
it sure isn’t now, grants and federal funding have been cut by more than half since dumps took office.
“it attracts top minds from across the globe.”
this was true 20 years ago, as most of you are above assumptions were.
they are not true today.
The US is not leading in most, if any, technological fields, it’s not leading in manufacturing, it’s not leading in most sciences, and it has one of the most awful education systems in the world, not to mention the living affordability crisis going on.
If people can’t afford groceries or a simple apartment to live in, let alone education, none of which they can afford in the US anymore, and have not been able to for the last generation, innovation falls by the wayside.
as it has been for a long time.
and now, US “dominance” will continue to freefall for at least the next 4 years.
you can’t do science without funding and support, and dumps has taken that funding away, and importantly does not believe in science or the benefits of research and development.
The US population has not been invested in, and your industries are suffering for that.
meanwhile, other countries are investing record amounts and setting technological records in innovative technologies like solar that the US has no hope of catching up to in the near future.
I want to note that this is a good thing, this sort of disillusionment.
The US is not leading in fields that you recognize as critical.
it’s important to recognize how The US fell behind in these fields and what the US can do to catch up to other countries, or more hopefully, work with other countries to progress together, which may be their only practical choice anyway.
a private company innovated aerospace technology despite the US government’s reluctance to invest in aerospace technology.
Huh? The US government paying SpaceX made it possible to succeed in the first place. That’s literally the US investing in aerospace tech.
US dod officials have been very clearly saying for Over a decade that the US might already be behind China in key areas of defense
China is catching up, but still behind in defense and aerospace technology. The one area they are ahead is industrial capacity to build, especially ships. China builds a huge number of civilian and military ships.
despite spending 4 to 10 times as much on their defense budget
Wages, manufacturing, etc. are all far more expensive in the US. It’s also much easier and cheaper to copy someone else’s design than to discover and build for the first time.
they cannot even compete with a free operating system
Microsoft has good support for Linux nowadays with Windows services for Linux and Azure Linux for example. On the desktop Microsoft Windows is still leading in market share and Microsoft Office is dominating as well.
Where are the biggest Linux companies located?
Apple? they haven’t been innovative in 15 years, depend on slave labor
Apple’s AR/VR is innovative, if not particularly successful in the market. Their M-series chips are among the best chip available. Very fast with low power use.
Apple makes their products in same factories (Foxconn etc) as other companies. So the labor conditions aren’t unique to Apple at all.
it’s not leading in manufacturing, it’s not leading in most sciences, and it has one of the most awful education systems in the world, not to mention the living affordability crisis going on.
I mostly agree. The quality of the US education system is similar to the health care system. The US has some of the best education and health care in the world. However, it’s neither cheap nor affordable for the majority of the population.
you can’t do science without funding and support, and dumps has taken that funding away, and importantly does not believe in science or the benefits of research and development.
I agree mostly. Regarding funding under Trump, we will see. Elon Musk certainly know about R&D costs and benefits and is influential.
meanwhile, other countries are investing record amounts and setting technological records in innovative technologies like solar that the US has no hope of catching up to in the near future.
Yes, other countries are catching up steadily overall and are ahead in some areas, especially China.
“China is catching up, but still behind in defense and aerospace technology”
this is a fiction, according to US defense officials, but if we pretended it was true, it doesn’t change the original point, that the US is falling behind in most technological fields.
you’ll notice that I didn’t mention aerospace in my original top of the dome list.
it looks like you’re agreeing with all my other points though, so I don’t have much else to say except that the important American fiction to dispel is this:
“other countries are catching up steadily overall and are ahead in some areas, especially China.”
10 years ago? you could argue that other countries were playing catch up in most technological fields.
now?
The US is behind in nearly every technological field and especially now is uninterested in catching up to the rest of the world.
The US population cannot afford to live and is critically undereducated, and are about to have four more years of withheld R&D funding and catastrophic isolationist policy.
That’s the reality on the ground now.
any “we’re not doing so bad” mentality simply is not correct anymore, and it’s important to recognize the reason behind and the rate at which the US is failing to advance in critical fields.
You’re not going to be able to swerve back onto the road by pretending the guardrails you’re grinding against aren’t there.
If we can’t get enough people protesting and taking action, yes. The window is closing.
The fuck is protesting going to do at this point, lets be real here. Why do you think a protest has any sway of the bulldozer that is happening in the US Legal system?
Protesting is just not gonna accomplish much, a little bit more than that is needed I think.
General strikes are the only answer.
Such bull pucks! History shows 3% of population protests work.
Just to make it clear, though: The kind of protesting that works is not standing in the road and blocking traffic on a weekend. We’re talking indefinitely long protests where you occupy public places in a massive show of force meant to force the present regime to back down, and all the violent clashes and multi-day standoffs that come with that. This is (part of) why the civil rights movement worked but the Iraq war protests didn’t. For a recent example of this in action look up the Ukrainian Revolution or the Tunisian Revolution, or for an American example the civil rights movement. If the person you’re responding to had in mind more typical quiet single-day protests then they’re 100% correct, otherwise you’re right but it’s very much uncertain whether Americans have the guts for this kind of stunt.
That just means your target changes. You’re not protesting to change an unchangeable administration. Instead you’re building consensus and creating a movement that can activate if certain lines are crossed.
We live in a criminally stupid country but Musk is doing his best to show everyone that being a billionaire should be a crime.
Edit: the tweet is fake, btw
Intensionally, the USA is going to lose its status as a hyperpower. Europe is going to decouple from American defense policy to the point where I can see American military bases close in Europe. An anti-Chinese military alliance will function with or without the USA anchored by India and Japan, but I see that force yielding some territory to China in the near term. There will probably be an increase in the number of wars in general as regions go into conflict without an American threat to maintain borders. Nothing the USA does is likely going to fix this.
Domestically, the administration is the greatest threat to the republic since the Civil War. If Trump is able to be pushed out in the future, there is going to need to be a major re-evaluation of how the American federal government works. This is going to require constitutional changes and the removal of major powers that the President has collected as the federal government grew.
American here. Maybe I’m going through the five stages of grief and now I’m at acceptance.
Everything in your first paragraph sounds accurate and maybe something that probably needed to happen. America as the World Police is/has been a problem. There were some positives, but a lot of negatives.
The sooner America gets off the stage, the better. We don’t deserve the recognition. We can’t even feed our own people and yet wield tremendous influence internationally, and maybe it’s a positive thing that it ends soon.
My only concern is that I expect an increase in international conflict as the American security guarantee is gone. The only remaining countries capable of projecting power internationally can’t do it on nearly the scale of the USA. I expect a lot of wars until new spheres of influence get established.
My global political history isn’t great, and maybe others can correct me here, but it doesn’t feel like the US has had much of a stabilising effect in the last 30 years.
There’s plenty of conflicts that just don’t make the news that the US just isn’t interested in. Poor places with no oil or other resources. Presently Burma comes to mind. There always seems to be somewhere in Africa, last decade there was genocide in Congo IIRC.
Also it’s not really clear whether their involvement in the middle east over the last few decades was positive or negative.
It’s nice to have them hovering around South China Sea to keep China in check I guess.
The USA definitely went crazy after 9/11 and has done destabilizing things to the international community. I’m not denying that.
However, the USA has a big stick that has been able to keep most borders frozen. Without the threat of American intervention, I can see a lot of wars between countries start because war became an option.
And this could come to pass with a peaceful China.
The USA put a stop to the wars on the Balkans in the 1990s: Bosnia, Kosovo.
Saddam Hussein is another one. Without the USA, he might have continued his expansion after Kuwait into Syria for example.
Latin America has had no major wars, only guerrillas and such for a long time.
The USA made peace between Egypt and Israel possible, a cornerstone for stability in the region.
The USA also kept Europe together with NATO.
Pax Americana is a thing for sure.
Saddam Hussein is another one. Without the USA,
Damn, and then what happened?
Latin America has had no major wars, only guerrillas and such for a long time.
And major fascist take overs, backed by the USA, of course.
The USA also kept Europe together with NATO.
Lol
The USA made peace between Egypt and Israel possible, a cornerstone for stability in the region.
Lol, yeah; the US sure has done a good job at regional stability by stepping on the neck of anyone who gets in the way of Isreal’s genocidal settler colonial project.
Deeply unserious
an increase
People in the Middle East are really not seen as people.
This is including the Middle East.
No it isn’t
Yes it is.
Nope.
Orwell just got the year wrong.
Trumpism isn’t Orwellian, it doesn’t need to be.
This is going to require constitutional changes
I think it’s going to require a new constitution. The American constitution was pretty good for a first try at modern democracy, but it has weaknesses. Look to European constitutions for inspiration regarding balance of power, parliamentary systems, electoral systems, basic rights. A less powerful president and a voting system that doesn’t lead to two parties might be prudent for example.
Having term limits on politicians (including judges) would be key. At some point, an old person simply can’t relate to the world that younger people grew up in. More importantly, they either become angry codgers (Republicans) or domesticated sheep (Geronocrats), which is innately an imbalance in political influence. An assertive person, in most situations, gets a bigger piece of the pie, be it political, fiscal, sexual, or some other thing.
Term limits have a huge downside. The politician will need a job afterwards and is thus more motivated to give political favors for job security afterwards. Your goal would also be achieved via an age limit like 70.
It also takes a while for a newly elected representative to understand how the political apparatus works, who is who and so on. Lobbyists and bureaucrats don’t have term limits though and have a much easier influencing the newcomer. Experience matters in every profession including politics.
China is focusing on itself, maybe that’s what the US and Europe should do for a while.
With Belt and Road, and all the colonialist projects China is doing in Africa, I would absolutely not say that “China is focusing on itself”. Or, at least: Even if it’s mainly focusing on itself, there is a very noteworthy imperial and colonial project going on.
What’s wrong with building infrastructure? Nothing stopping the West from offering an alternative development plan. Countries go with China’s because it is a better deal with fewer strings attached.
Instead when the US invaded Iraq it destroyed its infrastructure and opposed any plan to rebuild Iraq. China now is helping rebuild Iraq. Just one example of plenty.
Then again given the crumbling state of US infrastructure, it should really focus on itself. It brought a lot destruction (see: Gaza) and very little building to the rest of the world even when they broke it (see: Iraq).
Nothing’s wrong with building infrastructure. Why would it be?
What’s wrong is the financing scheme that makes the infrastructure effectively Chinese national property. And when China can decide how and when a country’s infrastructure can be used, China gets a lot of influence in that country’s domestic politics. And it does use that influence.
USA destroying Iraq doesn’t make China any less colonial. China helping rebuild Iraq in a way that will make Iraq a vassal of China… That does make China more colonial.
USA should absolutely focus on itself. And it will do it much more than before, because now that it has decided to cut its international soft power, it does not really have other options, does it? :)
What’s wrong is the financing scheme that makes the infrastructure effectively Chinese national property. And when China can decide how and when a country’s infrastructure can be used, China gets a lot of influence in that country’s domestic politics. And it does use that influence.
Source: The American Burger-freedom foundation for advanced jingoism research. That $1,600,000,000 the US government earmarked for anti-China propaganda definition getting returns.
USA destroying Iraq doesn’t make China any less colonial.
No, but it demonstrates there’s a vast, vast difference between actual colonial violence, and the bullshit that American chauvinists try to describe as colonialism.
China helping rebuild Iraq in a way that will make Iraq a vassal of China… That does make China more colonial.
“Yes, America destroying an entire country and killing hundreds of thousands of people is bad, but have you considered that China helping to rebuild that country is actually just as bad?”
Ghoul. You are a ghoul.
And it will do it much more than before
And thank God for that: the world doesn’t need amoral monsters who think that building infrastructure is the same thing as mass bombing and murder fucking with the rest of the world.
I’m sorry but you sound like the people who call DOGE “auditors” who “look for corruption and end it”.
China has been trying to get into big infrastructure projects in Finland as well, with the precisely same kind of loan arrangements. And it’s very good that we declined the offer. We were a colony of Sweden for 600 years. We don’t need to become one of China’s now.
I’m sorry but you sound pike the people who call DOGE “auditors” who “look for corruption and end it”
What the fuck kind of argument is that? “Oh you sound like the people who say [completely unrelated thing with no resemblence].” OK then, well you sound like the people who say that black people should be sterilized.
China has been trying to get into big infrastructure projects in Finland as wel
Infrastructure projects? Oh GOD NO! THE HUMANITY! THEY MIGHT AS WELL BE CARPET BOMBING HELSINKI!
And it’s very good that we declined the offer. We were a colony of Sweden for 600 years. We don’t need to become one of China’s now.
Yeah, building infrastructure is exactly like invading a country, massacring the natives, and forcibly taking control, definitely.
You’re fucking disgusting, colonialism apologist.
China is building military infrastructure on contested islands in the south china sea with the goal of controlling the whole area firmly including the first island chain and Taiwan.
Countries go with China’s because it is a better deal with fewer strings attached.
There’s also no historical baggage with Chinese colonialism in Africa. Fewer strings also means China doesn’t care about democracy, human rights, and such.
Fewer strings also means China doesn’t care about democracy, human rights, and such.
Neither do Western powers. Their support for the genocide in Gaza proves as much. From sending weapons and ignoring the ICC and ICJ rulings, to crushing protests and arresting journalists. You really can’t come and talk about democracy, human rights, and such as if the West is the good guys after we all witnessed the genocide in Gaza, you can’t. It is hypocritical and racist. You are basically saying “only we are people”, or at a minimum “the Palestinians aren’t people”.
As for China building some artificial islands, who cares? As far as “crimes” go it is really down at the bottom of the crimelist. You could probably learn about the expulsion of the Chagossians to put things into perspective.
who cares?
Literally all other countries in the region.
It really is illustrative of the absolute depths of westerners complete thoughtless hypocrisy that they think building a few shacks on uninhabited islands is remotely comparable to what the USA does.
Fewer strings also means China doesn’t care about democracy, human rights, and such.
Looooool. As if the west does.
American’s continue to be the most propagandized people on Earth.
all the colonialist projects China is doing in Africa
Westerners love changing the meaning of words like “colonialism” so that they can use it to attack their enemies, as if their new definition still holds all the moral wait that it did when it was properly applied. Honestly, calling China’s relationship with Africa a “colonialist project” is a fucking disgusting insult to all the people who suffered under actual, real colonialism perpetrated by Western nations.
I would absolutely not say that “China is focusing on itself”
No, there isn’t, you absolute ghoul.
What you’re saying suggests that France’s current behaviour is not colonialist. What are your thoughts on that?
France still has literal, actual colonies, you dumb fascist.
Haha, everyone is a fascist now?
Yeah, the French colonies, such as French Guyana, are not okay. But neither are the things France is doing to many of the countries that used to be France’s formal colonies. Even though those countries are not colonies of France, what France is doing to them is colonialism all the same. Or do you disagree?
Also, calling me “dumb” was impolite of you, even though factually correct. Calling me a fascist was outright weird.
Haha, everyone is a fascist now?
No, just colonialism defending ultranationalist white chauvinists like you.
Yeah, the French colonies, such as French Guyana, are not okay
Great, conversation over, not reading the rest of your comment now that you’ve admitted your previous one was spurious.
The US Constitution had plenty of ways to control someone like Trump. Not the least of which is the absolutely clear barring from public office for life of anyone participating in an insurrection. It’s just that the people in charge of enforcing these statutes lacked the courage to enforce those statutes. Legal statutes and so forth are useless if they aren’t enforced.
Not even close to being done. Right now the biggest changes are a reduction in non law enforcement/immigration government staff and contracts being paid out. The biggest thing coming down the pipeline is Trump clearly wants to free himself of the courts and congress. But it’s far too early to say he’s won that. And even that wouldn’t be the end of things. In the US the states have a lot of autonomy. They are actually the ones responsible for holding elections. So let’s look at a worst case scenario, where he tries to say we shouldn’t have elections.
The first thing that’s going to happen is all the blue states are going to tell him to fuck off and hold them anyways. The second thing that’s going to happen is some red states will also do so, although they’ll likely be less coarse with the language. Then a few more red states will be pressured into having elections by massive protests of people angry they can’t vote anymore. Then while Trump is having a fit because there’s no real way for him to stop this process, we get to learn about a fun feature of the US Congress. There is no law requiring it to meet in D.C. Trump would likely try to claim whatever is left over is the real congress, but without having been elected the Constitution is clear that those states forfeit representation until they hold an election.
So we’d be left with a House that is majority anti-Trump, after all, he tried to make them irrelevant at best. In the Senate we’d likely be looking at something of an even split in 2026. There’s probably 5-7ish red states that would hold elections anyways and combined with the blue states and senate democrats leaving DC they would be able to convene elsewhere with a majority to declare rules of the Senate without Trump’s interference. The new Congress would likely swiftly vote to impeach Trump. The remnants of the old one would protest this but they don’t have any legal power. Only the backing of Trump and propaganda power.
This leaves Vance with a choice. This would be by design because our democratic party leaders only appear to be stupid when convenient. Vance can throw his weight behind Trump and get impeached himself or he can order Trump removed from the White House thus acknowledging the primacy of Congress. If he chooses the first option then Congress simply repeats the process and the presidency goes to the next person in line, the speaker of the house. Yes, Congress can effectively vote one of it’s own members into the White House at any time. This president then declares an emergency and orders the military to secure DC. The military loves process, and loves the Constitution. It is highly likely this order would be followed.
However all would not be well, it’s not a fairy tale. It would likely be the start of an American Insurgency that would take decades to root out. It would certainly be the end of the US as the hegemonic world power. Our Aircraft Carriers would rust in port and our projection of soft and hard power over the world would wither. But we would still be here, just much diminished and never the same in our lifetimes. This is certainly scary but if we all do our part this is as close as we would come to losing our democracy. Far more insidious is the threat of slowly revoking the right to vote. They’d start by raising the age, then by requiring you to not have any debt of specific kinds, then by making harsh punishments for illegally voting, and other such things until voting is effectively restricted to land owners. Certain factions would like to get it to white christian male landowners but that’s probably a decade or more down that line if at all.
Notes -
Why wouldn’t he just send in the military?
2028 isn’t enough time to purge and train enough people to make the military loyal to him. He would be mid project on that at best and the states could effectively counter him into a stand still with their national guard. This would make many people stay home, but the determined voters are likely to be anti-trump because that’s the change incentive. Loyalists will feel like the elections don’t matter.
What’s stopping SCOTUS from declaring the elections invalid?
The states. SCOTUS is only relevant as long as they have reputation of being an impartial arbiter of Constitutional Law. That opinion is already in the trash heap. They could not make such a decision today, or after 4 more years unless they spend the next 4 years setting themselves as at least a mild opposition in a long game. But they haven’t shown that kind of patience.
What happens in Trump surrounds himself with thousands of armed loyalists in DC?
We select a new capital and wish him the best of luck dealing with DC. There is no law requiring DC be the Capital. The Constitution doesn’t even require the states to give up a district, it only provides the legal possibility. There’s no need to engage in that kind of a conflict. Such a group would be arrested bit by bit by Maryland, Virginia, and Federal authorities until it could be resolved swiftly.
You seem far more hopeful than me, and far more intelligent, so I am going to try and hold on to a sliver of hope.
I’m probably not smarter than you, this is just in my field of study. And to throw a little water on it, it depends on people doing things. We can all sit on our couch and watch the ministry of newspeak broadcasts or we can be in the streets. Our leaders are humans and we can’t expect them to act in a way that endangers themselves without visible support. But it actually takes a heck of a lot to kill a country. We aren’t anywhere near that point yet. Get mad, get in the streets.
Man that read is some high grade level Hopium of the best quality dang if only the DNC would do half of this instead of rolling and die with a billionaire cock in the mouth.
The flaw with this scenario is that it assumes Trump would try to simply cancel the elections. Instead, he would be more likely to regulate them in a way that makes unseating him impossible. For example, federal regulations might be implemented that required states to use voting machines, voting machines that are produced by corrupted companies. He just straight up steals the election through rigged voting machines. Or they mess with registrations and voter purges to a level more than the amount that already got Trump elected this time. See the SAVE Act..
Or alternatively, the election systems themselves will be unaffected. However, the candidates will be carefully managed. Any Democratic candidate that would present a significant threat to MAGA will be arrested on trumped-up charges. The courts will miraculously cease to give the Democratic candidate the same leeway they did to Trump when they “didn’t want to interfere with the election.” Or he’ll manipulate the Democratic elites so much that they end up electing someone even more conservative. They end up running Ted Cruz or something insane like that.
Remember, even the citizens of the Soviet Union got to have elections.
He can certainly try, but he can’t pass laws about elections without Congress, which brings the filibuster into play.
Arresting the party leaders of the opposition also generally doesn’t work if you do it more than once or the situation is already very politicized.
At the end of the day it’s going to require us to be in the streets no matter what he tries. Our state leaders need to see that they have support to stand up to Trump.
The problem that I keep seeing here is people saying “well, he can’t do that.”
Stop that. He can do it because nobody’s going to stop him. I mean, you surely don’t expect that little shit Mike Johnson to tell Daddy Trump no. The constitution itself isn’t going to rise up out of its case like Godzilla and crush him. The judiciary isn’t going to come and enforce their decision in person. That just leaves the military. They’re either going to coup him, or not, and I’m expecting the latter case.
That’s not what I’m saying. The entire point here is that he does not have the physical power to interfere in state elections without an act of Congress. The states would arrest any federal agents trying to do so. This isn’t a “gentleman’s agreement” that nobody is enforcing.
Does he not have a way to replace the state agents with ones that will do his bidding?
No, in the USA States have a limited form of sovereignty. They elect their own officials and hold all powers not expressly given to the Federal Government. So while the President has some law enforcement agents, most of them are actually employed by the State Governors and Counties/Cities. The Governors have a Secretary of State that is also elected who are responsible for running all elections in the state.
So if Trump tried to make an Executive Order that only Republicans could vote, (this is meant to be an extreme example, it would backfire hilariously in real life), the states could legally ignore it. However if Congress passed that as a law and the Supreme Court upheld it then the states would be legally bound to prevent anyone not registered as a Republican from voting for federal offices.
The thing is the Republicans don’t have enough of a majority to just pass any law they want. So it’s very unlikely there will be an extreme voting law in the next 2 years. So if federal agents showed up trying to enforce an Executive Order from Trump it is highly likely they would be arrested by the state or city police for interfering in voting.
if Trump tried to make an Executive Order that only Republicans could vote
The way authoritarians have done this before is arrest enough of opposition party members. Other ways of blocking members of Congress to show up for a vote could be travel restrictions due to a state of emergency because of a terror attack for example. You can combine this with other methods.
You might have 5 arrested on made up charges, 4 can’t leave their home because of protestors blocking them, 3 are blackmailed, 2 are bribed to stay away, 1 is murdered. This could even start with one or two members of congress getting murdered. Then a state of emergency is called including. Tragically not all members can make it in time to vote in the emergency session.
if federal agents showed up trying to enforce an Executive Order from Trump it is highly likely they would be arrested by the state or city police for interfering in voting.
Trump doesn’t need to succeed in all states with this or even send in federal agents. There are enough state governments run by MAGAs, who will fall in line.
Things don’t need to be properly done. Some chaos as cover and the slightest plausible deniability is enough.
So you end up with some kind of election reform, that’s not accepted by all states. This means the president can declare a further emergency and suspend elections until further notice. Alternatively only elections run according to the new rules are accepted by the federal government. Non compliant states can hold elections, but they will be declared invalid by the supreme court.
I really only lurk on Lemmy, but I felt the need to comment. Thank you for writing this. I’ve been stressed out since the EO was announced. I felt like we were doomed, but this gives me some hope. Even if this doesn’t happen, I feel better knowing there is still a way to possibly course correct.
This is actually one of the more pessimistic courses. It’s probable that Trump gets enough push back that his legacy consists of massively handicapping the civil service, screwing up the economy and our alliances, and then peacefully transferring power to a democratic party president.
One of the other things we need to do is seriously organize to support a more left candidate in the 2028 primaries. Part of this shock and awe is meant to make us give up, not only resisting Trump but also in organizing within the Democratic party.
is seriously organize to support a more left candidate
Americans need to start organizing the network for a general strike and start writing a new constitution.
A new constitution is a really bad idea until we can do a lot more organizing. Conservatives have been practicing for a convention for at least 20 years. If we called one right now they’d steamroll the liberals and we’d have an actual king again.
Thank you for this. It’s so easy to feel hopeless in the face of everything that’s happening, which is exactly what they want.
Yeah, there’s still quite a few good paths here. I can’t guarantee we do what’s needed but I can show how if we demand it from our leaders and publicly support them it becomes really hard for Trump and friends to reach their goals.
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Hopefully we get something out of this fucking bullshit
At the current trajectory, it be at best a renewed appreciation for how good things used to be.
/r Collapse warned us…
And it’s up to the people in the 50 State’s National Guard, and law enforcement, and the military to decide between the constitution and fascism.
Okay but you do remember we were here before and the national guard and law enforcement extremely made it very clear who’s side they were on… right?
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The fact thats only as far back as you went is sorta my point.
Yall dont remember before that, when Trump last was president as well, the crowds getting kettlepotted and gassed out, the peaceful crowds getting dispersed just so trump could take a photo op?
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What does that have to do with my original statement.
I feel like Trump could just make up any half assed excuse for why the voting stations need to be shut down though and they’d buy it.
Like it Trump says it, it is rule of law to them
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Hmmm, it seems the modern way for autocracies to deal with elections is to control the information space. I don’t see election being called off, but major social media platforms boosting one side while attenuating the other goes a long way. We know Musk is all in on this and the other big players like Zuckerberg & Co seem all too happy to oblige. Tiktok is an open ended question at this point.
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When it’s all done and dusted, I hope it’s the beginning of the end for corporate capitalism as we know it. Allowing them to become that big and powerful through corruption that they literally think that they can control the world, is insane.
This is happening because of greed.
