It’s a weird business where everyone is offering an environmentally unsupportable service at below cost, hoping to outlive the competition.
Market share of a negative profit market.
It worked for netflix and the steaming services. Now terrestrial (cable) is dead and adsupported streaming tiers have returned lol.
It’s how every tech company that “disrupts” a market or indistry works. Uber started of burning shit tons of cash operating at a loss till it replaced enough Taxi services then jacked up the prices.
The problem with AI is that they cannot increase the prices enough to be profitable. The AI companies are waiting for future hardware tech that will be energy efficient enough to make AI profitable before they run out of capital to burn.
The problem with AI is that they cannot increase the prices enough to be profitable.
I saw something about the SpaceX IPO that said for it to be justified at that price, everyone on earth with some sort of money (they defined it as earning at least $14,000/year) had to become an xAI consumer and spend $28,000/year. Seems reasonable /s
I was thinking about that, but it did make governments move to digital programming (eg BBC, NPO), which they likely wouldn’t have done if it wasn’t for Netflix. I think it also improved the internet speeds here in NL significantly.
Market share of a negative profit market.
Yes. That was my reaction, too.
If I start giving away autographed headhsots, have I then also cornered an emerging market? lol.
Wait until the winner shows up and proceeds to absolutely wreck everything with fees and subscriptions jammed into everything remaining that didn’t need AI.
Look up commoditizing the compliment.
So, people are falling for Anthropic’s marketing scheme?
Personally, I find myself using the Chinese alternatives more and more as they are just way cheaper.
The good thing is that a deepseek can be run locally relatively well with consumer hardware. I trust chinese companies as much as i trust american companies with my data and my prompts.
You have 170+ GB VRAM at home? (:
I mainly use DeepSeek v4 Flash now, it’s the cheapest around and the quality is high enough for coding. At work we’re throwing tons of money at Claude, but even there I usually stick to Sonnet (as Opus is burning money).
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1 token/second isn’t remotely acceptsble lol
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Theres a lot of good models free online that are open source/Chinese and the only cost is a bit of slowness on my rig. No token limit or whatever. Totally agree.
Its about as good as commercial products now…
I’ve been loving minimax-m3 since its release
The company taking most of chatGPT’s market share is actually Gemini, which I think is cheating because it’s basically just padding the numbers with random google searches.
Can’t be Europeans as they’re locked out from the new models LOL
I switched to opencode and deepseek
What scheme, their last models have been so much better than OpenAI’s it’s no surprise people are moving to Claude.
Who the fuck cares
That depends; it will most likely cause some pretty serious issues outside the AI space. When that bubble finally pops, it’ll probably make the dot-com bust look like a bathtub fart. Knock-on effects over non AI industries, and a lot of little bitch CEO’s that put all their money/companies money in AI will now be out a whole lot of cash and go on (more) firing sprees.
And if it doesn’t pop, it has made ordinary people into millionaires. I was having a look at Swedish Avanza site where they launched a new feature where people can share their portfolios (what stocks they are invested in, and their account growth). The best investors got in early on all this stuff. Nvidia and now memory and disk stocks, so they consistently made tons and tons of money.
All while people has been waiting for the bubble to pop since… 2021? Maybe earlier.
We absolutely don’t know if it will pop, and even if it does, there was a huge opportunity to make money from it over years and years.
Thats what investment bankers did, and that’s what ordinary people did. Some got very rich on this.
Im just saying that because it’s important to realize that the way we think may not be optimal for our lives sometimes. I understand fear. But I also understand that some risks are necessary to gain something valuable.
Chat GPT came out in 2023. To the extent there was a bubble in 2021 (crypto and EV come to mind) those frothy parts of the market have deflated.
Thought it was worth adding to your comment that getting rich by taking extraordinary risk may not be “optimal”, and that looking at upside outliers is a bad way to decide what to do with personal finances.
If what you’re advocating is buying well diversified, low fee, investments with a long time horizon then carry right on though.
You can adjust your risk, sure. Those low fee diversified investments will give you index level gains, sure. But I meant getting actual rich. Then you need to bet on the right stocks.
Pfff
Best way to have a million is starting with 2 million.
Or write a book about how to get rich. Like that kyosaki guy that blew it up on real estate.
I’ve noticed that some people just have some built in resistence to learning about stocks. It keeps them poor and it’s almost as they want that. At the same time, some kids learn about stocks in their teens and start getting experience and then they invest through their entire life, seeing their money grow.
Its interesting see that attitude. Someone put it there. I would highly recommend challenging your views on this.
Say you get 300% gains on your money and consistently put 50% of your money in stocks for 50 years. It still won’t make most people rich.
Retiring comfortably? Sure, you’ve saved 50% of your salary. But rich? Like, Elon Musk family money in the 90s when no one knew him? Nope.
1984 called, They’d like their username back because you have an entirely too rosy outlook on corpo-government relations.
Me. I care.
Two certain clowns, though for different reasons
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not a gambling man but if i was… https://polymarket.com/event/sam-altman-in-jail-by
This is my first time actually navigating to one of these websites. God damn it’s so much more dystopian than I even imagined.
Hehe my experience was distopian alright, the page won’t load
For those who didn’t read past the headline: OpenAI is still growing, but competition is growing faster.
I wish headlines would start to qualify market share. They had over 50% of the active usera/subscribers/acticity or something like that. The addressable market on the other hand isna lot more people and they probably never got anywhere close to 50% of that.
The free market strikes again.
Is anyone actually using Gemini directly?
It sucks total bum compared to even some quality mid tier models on huggingface. Even the joke about ChatGPT was that it performs better than Google’s equally bum SEO’d search engine.
I feel like Google is suffering much less at throwing it into all of their apps than MSFT doing the same with copilot.
It’s still a leading long context model, IMO.
But I think it feels dumb because the default “harness” is pretty simple and dumb, more than the base LLM.
That, and it’s really awful at 1 temperature (which is its default).
Maybe some leadership is guzzling Kool-aid over how bad Google search has gotten? Because it leans on that pretty heavily, without many other tools.
Mistral or Lumo way to go
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Mistral Medium 3.5 isn’t that far behind comparable current open weight models.
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True! I’m loving lumo so far
Yeah, Mistral is just… not very good anymore.
Even strictly compared to open weights models. Everything I’ve tried feels obsolete.
So OpenAI is becoming more profitable?
This isn’t good news. This just means now the market is fractured with many AIs instead of just one. If anything it’s just a sign that more people are using AI.
Call me when the headline is “ChatGPT shuts down”.
It is
Less customers same expenses
More chances of them going bankrupt
If they do it’s probably going to be Musk that buys the corpse.
This just means now the market is fractured with many AIs instead of just one.
Fundamentally this feels like it should be a good thing…
But it does feel like this just accelerates things.
If OpenAI’s numbers are true, more usage means more cash burn. And more competition means companies have to fight to offer the best deals to customers, meaning more cash burn.
Now if the market was reasonable…
Now if the market was reasonable…
lol. I am the market, and I am reasonable.
I’ve got actual use cases for AI, and I’ve got a local model running on my own hardware.
In short - I’m the long term buyer after the hype wave ends, and I ain’t buying shit from these assholes.
That said, if a nice fully open source home appliance gets announced, by a company that hasn’t burned all available goodwill and trust with random acts of assholery, I’ll probably join a wait list for it.
In other words, I’m saying there’s a chance.
Unfortunately, unless you’re a business yourself, I don’t think you’re the market anybody castes about any more. The entire RAM crisis was caused because individual people got deprioritized compared to the promise of some revenue from big businesses…
It’s a weird club of CEOs telling each-other to buy their stuff in return for investment.
I’m not sure there is an actual market, once the money-seeking-profits spin cycle ends.
The market shouldn’t even exist.
Imagine if I offered a service to connect people with local serial killers. Then after some time more people started offering that service.
Would you say “Well hopefully competition will drive down prices at least”?
Yeah big AI needs to not be a thing. Small, focused, FOS, and local AI seems like a future with an okay compromise. I say as a very anti-AI person, but for those that use AI, that seems to be what they’re doing, in my vicinity.
It all still burns energy at a time when we should be reducing our energy consumption. And for mainly frivolous things which we could have done without AI aynway.
It does, but less energy, and it distributes it worldwide rather than destroy the ecosystems where their data centers are located.
It’s great news. The only hope for these companies is getting to monopoly enshittification before investors give up. This shows that timeline might be impossibly long.
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