• Dogiedog64@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          95
          arrow-down
          1
          ·
          19 days ago

          Doubtful. They’ve shown beyond a reasonable doubt that nothing matters to them except blind loyalty to T. Nothing. Their own lives are meaningless before him, and his whims define their every breath. If he started shipping troops and guns to Russia, Republicans would be right there, fervently cheering him on.

            • JustEnoughDucks@feddit.nl
              link
              fedilink
              English
              arrow-up
              13
              ·
              18 days ago

              Except the old guard is literally being purged out of agencies right now and is almost completely gone from the national political scene. McCain is dead with trump dancing on his grave, Romney is out after voting to convict trump during the 2021 impeachment. McConnell is retired, but literally spent the last decade trying to get trump elected and give him complete control over the courts (and tried to hand the courts to partisan unqualified judges for 30 years) All of the other “old guard” have bent the knee or left.

          • rational_lib@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            5
            ·
            19 days ago

            I have some hope from the fact that when they showed just how absurdly subservient they are, some people showed up at town hall meetings to yell at them. Not all of these representatives are totally insulated in a maga-encrusted bubble, and at some point the fear of being too pro-Trump might start to compete with the fear of not being pro-Trump enough.

            • Dogiedog64@lemmy.world
              link
              fedilink
              English
              arrow-up
              3
              ·
              18 days ago

              Unfortunately, if the last 10 years have shown me anything, it’s that the Venn Diagram of Trump Supporting Fascists and Self-proclaimed Republicans is rapidly approaching a circle. Some may yet shock us by breaking rank now, but I have no doubt they’ll eventually fall in line, save for a show of deadly force causing them to knee-jerk rebel.

              Also, there will not be a point where they stop and say “Are we too Pro-Trump???” That’s just not how fascist regimes work. They encourage the self-cannibalizing behavior of reinforcing ever-deepening faith in The Leader/Party, leaving no room for thought or doubt as they demand ever-more-extreme shows of loyalty. Anyone who breaks the trend is an outsider to be immediately put down to enforce said loyalty further. Republicans have been showcasing this kind of behavior for years, such as adopting the term RINO (Republican In Name Only) for members who break rank, the constant buzzwords, hate speech, and battle cries cycled endlessly through their social circles to signify that they’re in the “In-Group”, the mountains of merch they all seem to own (hats, flags, truck stickers, etc.) to show support for The Leader, and most importantly, their propensity to IMMEDIATELY resort to violence when their Party/Leader/“”“authority”“” is questioned or denied. These dipshits are only gonna keep getting worse until Trump FINALLY bites it, and the cult of personality collapses, but even then, they might devolve further just to spite “”“The Left™️”“”.

              Argh.

        • Railing5132@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          6
          ·
          19 days ago

          The current iteration of the GOP in the senate and congress resembles that of a drying jellyfish on a beach: spineless and worthless (no disrespect to actual dying jellyfish on the beach, who serve admirably in the food chain) . They will do whatever the fuck their god emperor tells them to do.

          They confirmed RFK Jr. for fuck’s sake.

        • payhn@sopuli.xyz
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          5
          ·
          edit-2
          18 days ago

          They’ve always been upset about George Soros but praise Trump letting Elon into every facet of the government to fix the budget. I can see the budget as a civilian but Elon needs access to my IRS and Treasury department info for “reasons”. Claiming he’s trying to fix the budget by selling old weapons to Russia would go over just fine for republican constituents. A lot of them don’t have any reason to see Russia as an enemy and many I’ve talked to like Russian culture a lot 🤷‍♂️ they don’t need a good reason to go with whatever leadership wants and making the libs upset is a pretty great reason for them if it doesn’t immediately affect them negatively

          • payhn@sopuli.xyz
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            3
            ·
            19 days ago

            That’s the next goal for the GOP. They already moan about how we pay more in military spending than other members, leaving NATO would be something good in their eyes. Ripping up NATO wouldn’t be a bad thing to them, just another way to stick it to the “European socialists libs”

    • horse_battery_staple@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      25
      ·
      19 days ago

      To be honest, with the massive gains they’re showing, it would literally just be a continuation of what European allies are already providing. The only thing the EU, Germany and the UK need to do is continue the support already in place. Slava Ukraini

      • M137@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        8
        ·
        18 days ago

        Firstly, that’s not certain at all, yet. Secondly “spoiler alert” goes first, you don’t write the spoiler then the alert, your inability to understand that says no one should trust anything you say.

    • NauticalNoodle@lemmy.ml
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      4
      arrow-down
      22
      ·
      19 days ago

      Ukraine is their neignbor. Being that most of Europe are also NATO members, It makes more sense to me that they be the ones to spearhead this proxy war if anyone should.

        • NauticalNoodle@lemmy.ml
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          5
          arrow-down
          24
          ·
          edit-2
          19 days ago

          “Have you forgotten the social and political unrest Russia has caused in our country? Are you unaware of the money and personnel they invest into destabilizing our country? Should that just go completely unanswered?”

          you overestimate the influence russia previously had in our country while simultaneously underestimate the impact of americas history on my own fellow Americans as well as the rest of the world.

          Do you seriously think we don’t invest money and personnel in destabilizing russia?

          I also didn’t say to eliminate support, but we shouldn’t be leading this charge

          “Do you seriously think we should only concern ourselves with Mexico and Canada or something?”

          I seriously think we should do what our fellow NATO countries have been doing the past 8 decades and start focusing our attention on improving living conditions at home instead of constantly spending absurd amounts of money to perpetuate this infinitely growing war machine that claims to hold other countries to standards that it can’t even hold itself to.

      • SleafordMod@feddit.uk
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        16
        arrow-down
        3
        ·
        19 days ago

        proxy war

        So you think Russia waged this war just to stick it to the West? To me it looks like a war of conquest - Russia invaded so they could take land.

        • zqps@sh.itjust.works
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          4
          ·
          19 days ago

          Also because Putin needed a war to shore up nationalist fervor and distract from his failures and corruption. A classic play that almost always works.

        • Saleh@feddit.org
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          2
          arrow-down
          5
          ·
          18 days ago

          If it was only about conquest, there is countries like Kazachstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tschadjikistan that Russia could conquer easily and w.o. consequences from the West.

          The key strategic goal for Russia is to prevent NATO standing on their homeland doorsteps.

          For a good explanatiom see this talk by Prof. John Mearsheimer, who foresaw this war coming ten years ago already.

          https://youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4&pp=ygULbWVhcnNoZWltZXI%3D

        • coolusername@lemmy.ml
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          1
          arrow-down
          10
          ·
          edit-2
          18 days ago

          Why are you even guessing? Every single representative of Russia including Putin gives long ass speeches about why this is happening. Also the US is hardcore plotting and funding terrorism against Russia. They have incidents every two weeks or so.

          • SleafordMod@feddit.uk
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            6
            ·
            18 days ago

            Every single representative of Russia including Putin gives long ass speeches about why this is happening

            The same government that has lied about so many things that I have lost count

            Also the US is hardcore plotting and funding terrorism against Russia

            Evidence? Do you think the US plotted and funded the Crocus City Hall attack for instance?

        • NauticalNoodle@lemmy.ml
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          2
          arrow-down
          12
          ·
          19 days ago

          Now this is just a dim take. We are fighting a war via a proxy (Ukraine) by offering the financial, logistical, and weapon support. Hence, a Proxy War.

          • SleafordMod@feddit.uk
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            6
            arrow-down
            1
            ·
            18 days ago

            What’s dim is refusing to recognise that this war was started by Russia. Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, then increased their invasion in 2022. Ukraine asked the West for military help so the West provided military help.

            Maybe Ukraine should have been allowed to join NATO years ago when they asked, and then they might not have been invaded.

              • SleafordMod@feddit.uk
                link
                fedilink
                English
                arrow-up
                3
                ·
                18 days ago

                Ukraine’s not a member of NATO

                Indeed. That’s why I said maybe Ukraine should have been allowed to join NATO years ago. That might have prevented this invasion.

                i never disputed who the primary aggressor was in this war

                So you think Russia invaded, but then the West used this as an opportunity to harm Russia. Maybe the West wasn’t interested in harming Russia for the sake of harming Russia. Maybe the West just wanted Russia to stop its invasion of Ukraine.

                • NauticalNoodle@lemmy.ml
                  link
                  fedilink
                  English
                  arrow-up
                  2
                  ·
                  18 days ago

                  Russia invaded and i think the west didn’t care until we were out of our other forever wars and we needed a new way to keep the military industrial complex afloat.

      • Pyr_Pressure@lemmy.ca
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        6
        arrow-down
        2
        ·
        19 days ago

        Nazi Germany was also Europe’s neighbour. I’m sure America would have fared well just completely ignoring it until all of Europe and Russia was under nazi control. Sometimes you need to involve yourself before a problem becomes too big.

        • NauticalNoodle@lemmy.ml
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          1
          arrow-down
          7
          ·
          edit-2
          19 days ago

          “Nazi Germany was also Europe’s neighbour. I’m sure America would have fared well just completely ignoring it until all of Europe and Russia was under nazi control. Sometimes you need to involve yourself before a problem becomes too big.”

          I’m not sure what kind of a analogy you’re trying to draw here since Russia was one of our Primary allies trying to stop Nazi Germany. Are you suggesting we form an alliance with Russia because people are suggesting I’m doing someones job for free right now and your out here trying to draw parallels to WWII as if we want to make friends with Russia.

          -I have to say multiple accounts are making a hell of a lot of suggestions that i’m wrong and providing no source of information to back themselvss up.

      • Tuukka R@sopuli.xyz
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        1
        arrow-down
        1
        ·
        18 days ago

        You are calling this a proxy war between North Korea and USA. North Korea is more in USA’s area of interest than that of Europe’s.

      • Saleh@feddit.org
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        2
        arrow-down
        3
        ·
        18 days ago

        The US fucking around geopolitically is what got us this mess. The US was eager to walk over Russian security interests, despite warnings this could escalate to a war. And now Trump has spoken the quiet part out loud, that for the US this war is mainly a business opportunity, no matter who wins it in the end.

        The US dropping out of supporting Ukraine should be met with sanctions and a ban of any US investment into Ukraine for thr next 100 years. Also all US owned assets needs to be seized like the Russian ones.

        Neither country should be allowed to make a single Penny from rebuilding in Ukraine.

        • vga@sopuli.xyz
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          1
          ·
          edit-2
          17 days ago

          The US was eager to walk over Russian security

          Why do you think Russian security interests override the security interests of the countries neighboring Russia?

  • Pennomi@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    94
    arrow-down
    1
    ·
    19 days ago

    Defense Minister Ruslan Umerov said 96% of all drones fielded by the Ukrainian military are domestically manufactured. Syrsky said during 2024, Ukrainian drone producers delivered more than 1.3 million robot aircraft to the armed forces. About 85% of all Russian casualties and vehicle kills on the battlefield are scored by Ukrainian drones, Malyuk said.

    Very interesting to see the statistics. I always assumed drones were doing the most damage but it’s nice to have a number confirm this.

    • nova_ad_vitum@lemmy.ca
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      59
      arrow-down
      1
      ·
      19 days ago

      This war is a sample of what all major conflicts between industrialized nations are going to look like from now on. Even more utterly horrific for the average soldier. Death from above at any moment without warning, fuzzy front lines, the whole thing.

      • Bytemeister@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        4
        arrow-down
        3
        ·
        18 days ago

        Probably not. It only worked so well against Russians because of how shitty their military is. A modern army with properly running vehicles and operating bases (instead of scrap heaps and open trenches) isn’t nearly as susceptible to short range civillian drones.

        • Tuukka R@sopuli.xyz
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          2
          ·
          18 days ago

          You need a small automatized AD machine gun or similar for every group of soldiers. Can be done, but requirea a huge amount of those anti-drone guns. Basically the amount of soldiers on the front, divided by ten or so.

          • Bytemeister@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            3
            ·
            18 days ago

            Or just adequate cover. Or a drone jammer (something which exists and is available to civilians). Or a strategy that doesn’t leave your troops milling around in open trenches for weeks at a time. Or a reaper drone flying overhead that detects the signal from smaller civilian quadcopter which then jams the drone, locates it’s origin, ID’s the operators with thermal vision and lodges a hellfire missile up their ass.

            Again, a competent modern military isn’t going to be vulnerable to this type of tactic.

    • perestroika@lemm.ee
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      12
      ·
      edit-2
      19 days ago

      They would prefer to have more artillery, though. In case-by-case evaluations (e.g. enemy tank formation spotted maneuvering at comparable distance), it often takes a much longer time (e.g. over an hour vs. some minutes) to neutralize the same kind of an opponent with drones, compared to smart artillery shells (e.g. BONUS).

      Also, in some weather drones don’t fly.

    • rustyfish@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      12
      ·
      19 days ago

      Yeah. This entire conflict has had a certified MGS4 „War has changed” vibe to it since the very beginning.

    • slaacaa@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      5
      ·
      18 days ago

      That percentage is way higher, than I expected. Happy for them, but the future of warfare sure looks scary

    • MolecularCactus1324@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      3
      ·
      18 days ago

      That’s good to know because it indicates they are less reliant on the US than one might assume. They’re doing 85% of the killing with their own tools.

      • Pennomi@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        3
        ·
        18 days ago

        True, but air defense is also critical. If Russia gets total air supremacy that changes a lot.

  • partial_accumen@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    85
    arrow-down
    3
    ·
    19 days ago

    No exaggeration, Russia is issuing donkeys and mules (yes actual pack animals) to soldiers for transporting supplies because vehicles are in short supply.

    • AnUnusualRelic@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      35
      ·
      19 days ago

      Well, mules don’t require fuel, and they also work as field rations in a pinch.

      Otoh, they need a steady supply of mules. I don’t think there are that many nowadays. Although who knows with Russia.

        • nwtreeoctopus@sh.itjust.works
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          18
          ·
          19 days ago

          Additionally, they require a lot of rest and need to be rotated out more frequently than humans. Nazi Germany was very dependent on draft animals on WWII and the logistics were nuts.

        • Saleh@feddit.org
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          10
          arrow-down
          1
          ·
          18 days ago

          Any type of grass or non poisonous vegetation works.

          In difficult terrain animals can still be the best choice for transport. Dont know if that applies here, but i know from Germanys invasion of Ukraine in WW2 that the mud in Spring and Autumn is terrible to traverse with mechanized units.

          • VerifiedSource@sh.itjust.works
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            4
            arrow-down
            1
            ·
            18 days ago

            Any type of grass or non poisonous vegetation works.

            Not so easy during winter.

            You can’t just leave them grazing wherever. Mines and artillery kill them just as well.

            Some fodder will need to be brought in for them.

    • BedSharkPal@lemmy.ca
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      15
      arrow-down
      1
      ·
      edit-2
      19 days ago

      I wouldn’t want to be on drone duty when you have to take out a donkey 😔

      • partial_accumen@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        23
        arrow-down
        3
        ·
        19 days ago

        We had a convesation about this in the Ukraine Lemmy Community. Our suggestion was to arm a drone with a carrot, and lead the donkey (carrying all the supplies) out of the orc camp after all the orcs have been liquidated. Ukraine gets supplies, Donkey gets safety, orcs are pink mist. Everyone wins! There’s zero downside.

          • Katana314@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            2
            ·
            18 days ago

            Very doubtful that it would work, but out of all the weird, crazy, and creative stories generated from World War 2, I wouldn’t put it totally outside of any plausibility.

        • Maggoty@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          2
          ·
          18 days ago

          I’m sorry but it’s far more important to make sure the Russians don’t get that ammo resupply. Combat sucks.

            • Maggoty@lemmy.world
              link
              fedilink
              English
              arrow-up
              2
              ·
              18 days ago

              Possibly. If everything goes right. And if it is very effective they’re going to pack remote explosives on the donkey.

              Are you going to be the one checking it?

      • partial_accumen@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        34
        arrow-down
        3
        ·
        19 days ago

        Hmm, should I consider your post as an honest dialogue and actively continue talking to you?

        Nope! That tells me everything I need to know about you. Now I get to press the “block” button and you disappear from my life forever!

        • zqps@sh.itjust.works
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          19
          ·
          19 days ago

          I’m torn personally.

          If I block these accounts, I won’t be able to downvote and report them anymore.

          • Klear@sh.itjust.works
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            7
            arrow-down
            1
            ·
            18 days ago

            I just tag them. For example the guy a few threads above arguing that the conflict is too far from the USA and they shouldn’t involve themselves is tagged “stalin apologist”.

          • PrettyFlyForAFatGuy@feddit.uk
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            3
            arrow-down
            1
            ·
            18 days ago

            i have a script that runs in the background while i browse lemmy that automatically downvotes any post from a known tankie or tankie instance that appears on my screen, and upvotes literally everything else ahead of them.

            it broke a while ago though. i should fix it

      • Gammelfisch@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        9
        arrow-down
        2
        ·
        edit-2
        19 days ago

        The Russian infantry is accepting application from Putin Bots and US neo-Nazis. Don’t worry, there is plenty of European made tungsten to greet you.

    • mechoman444@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      53
      arrow-down
      7
      ·
      19 days ago

      As an American I’d like to apologize for the shit show my country currently is.

      I’ve never felt shame like this.

      • alkbch@lemmy.ml
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        15
        arrow-down
        45
        ·
        19 days ago

        You’ve had many opportunities to feel shame like this, starting with the unconditional support & complicity of the U.S. government in the genocide in Gaza…

        • shalafi@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          10
          arrow-down
          2
          ·
          18 days ago

          Supporting the genocide in Gaza was my first deep shame for my country, and I’m not a spring chicken.

        • Slartibartfast@lemmy.dbzer0.com
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          3
          ·
          edit-2
          18 days ago

          To be fair that’s a proxy war between the US and the Arab world.

          It was always going to end one way. People are mostly desensitized and the Oct events pushed the majority off the fence. Which was kinda the point. It’s a rats nest and anyone trapped there is unfortunately walking dead trapped between the gears of globalism.

          American voters had zero say in it really. I’m not sure anyone can do anything really. It’s like trying to hold back the sea.

          • alkbch@lemmy.ml
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            2
            arrow-down
            2
            ·
            18 days ago

            It is only this bad because the US has provided nearly unconditional military, diplomatic and financial support to Israel for 75+ years despite them committing numerous war crimes, invading all of their neighbors and hindering countless peaceful processes. Israel can’t even defend itself without the assistance of foreign countries as we have seen last year when they needed the US, France, Jordan and others to step in when Iran sent a few missiles.

        • mechoman444@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          2
          arrow-down
          1
          ·
          17 days ago

          I actually really don’t care about Gaza.

          Don’t get me wrong, I don’t support what they’re doing over there… But… It’s a bunch of religious people fighting over what they think is holy land… When holy Land is in contention they’re always killing each other over it…

          • alkbch@lemmy.ml
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            1
            arrow-down
            1
            ·
            17 days ago

            Do better. It’s a very powerful country backed by the US who is invading many countries while committing numerous war crimes including genocide and ethnic cleansing. If you don’t care about Gaza don’t pretend to care about human rights and the rule of law.

    • ditty@lemm.ee
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      54
      arrow-down
      2
      ·
      19 days ago

      That’s probably exactly why Putin has put his croney President Krasnov to put US support for Ukraine in jeopardy.

      • Dasus@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        31
        arrow-down
        1
        ·
        19 days ago

        And exactly so that they can blackmail Ukraine to a “peace treaty” Russia will break as soon as its built up a bit of troops again.

        Fuck Putler and his bitch Krasnov

      • Empricorn@feddit.nl
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        10
        arrow-down
        4
        ·
        19 days ago

        “In jeopardy”!? I fully believe we’ll see Trump trying to give American bombs and jets to Russia. This is Putin’s one chance…

  • Gammelfisch@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    79
    arrow-down
    7
    ·
    19 days ago

    We Europeans should have never hesitated to supply Ukraine. Let’s make up for the fuck-up and give them everything we have and the AmeriKan Nazis can piss and moan on the sidelines.

    • MyNameIsIgglePiggle@sh.itjust.works
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      22
      arrow-down
      1
      ·
      edit-2
      18 days ago

      What if the US stepping back is exactly what Europe needs to become a true superpower?"

      It hit me recently that Europe has largely relied on the US to take the lead on global issues, often playing it safe and deferring to American influence. But what if the US pulling back its support is actually a blessing in disguise?

      Without the US as the default leader, NATO and the EU could finally step up, stand on their own, and evolve into a unified superpower. This shift could bring much-needed stability to the region—and potentially the world—especially as the US faces its own internal challenges.

      Sure, it’s not guaranteed to play out this way, but isn’t this a more appealing vision than the current status quo or the rise of authoritarian powers dominating the global stage?

      • Tuukka R@sopuli.xyz
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        14
        ·
        edit-2
        18 days ago

        USA has also quite sternly asked Europe to not become a superpower. And this is something that was openly spoken aloud in 1980’s and 1990’s. Their offer has been “we’ll handle this superpower stuff on your behalf, you guys keep to yourself.” That has kept USA the clear leading superpower, which has been extremely useful for the American economy, and we have been able to concentrate on other stuff, which has been good for our economy.

        It’s been an agreement between USA and Europe that Europe will not start competing of power with USA. We have more population and a bigger economy than USA, so I’d guess that now that the agreement has ended, we’ll have to become what we would already have been for decades if we hadn’t been asked not to.

        • VerifiedSource@sh.itjust.works
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          2
          ·
          18 days ago

          In the 1990s, the US would have been glad if the Europeans would have managed the Yugoslav disintegration and ensuing wars with ethnic cleansing themselves. They were unable and had to rely on the US in Bosnia and Kosovo.

          • Tuukka R@sopuli.xyz
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            3
            ·
            17 days ago

            Absolutely!

            But of course the US leadership understood that this is a consequence of asking EU to refrain from doing that kind of stuff. Would still have been better for USA if Europe would have done much more, so the demands make sense. And I agree that more should have been done!

  • nednobbins@lemm.ee
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    63
    ·
    edit-2
    18 days ago

    I’ve found that Colonel Maruks Reisner provides some of the best information available on the war.

    https://youtu.be/IDRjughhXMg

    He doesn’t update frequently but all his analysis are sober, detailed, and realistic. He states his pro-Western, pro-NATO, pro-Ukrainian bias clearly.

    If I could sum up the general trend of his presentation it’s, “The status quo favors Russia. If we don’t get our heads out of our asses and step up Russia will win.”

    • lorty@lemmy.ml
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      15
      arrow-down
      1
      ·
      18 days ago

      Second this. I expected just more crazy ukrainian claims but it was actually a very grounded analysis of the situation.

      • nednobbins@lemm.ee
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        9
        ·
        18 days ago

        He has a lot of videos like that. One of them is him in a room full of cadets. He goes through all the drone innovations that the Russian and Ukrainians have made in the past year and passes around a (disarmed) working €321 drone.

        Then he points out that Austria still has the same expensive drone they had years ago and tells the cadets they should be a bit stressed about that.

    • VerifiedSource@sh.itjust.works
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      8
      ·
      18 days ago

      He is okay and mostly factual. The tactical and operational analysis is good. However he has been wrong in the past, especially with his strategic interpretations and long term predictions.

      The status quo favors Russia. If we don’t get our heads out of our asses and step up Russia will win

      That has been his refrain from the beginning. Yet Ukraine is still very much in the fight.

      The we is also kind of ironic since Austria doesn’t send any arms to Ukraine. The Austrian government and intelligence services as notoriously influenced by Russia. So take that in mind as well.

      • nednobbins@lemm.ee
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        1
        ·
        17 days ago

        I’m not aware of any major predictions he’s gotten wrong. As near as I can tell, he’s very focused on ex-post analysis.

        Ukraine is still in the fight but it’s clearly loosing. Ukraine is still rich in subjective resources like “spirit” and “determination”. When it comes to hard metrics the picture is pretty bleak; casualties, ground gained, artillery production, depth of reserves…

        The “we” wasn’t a quote by Colonel Reisener. I did put it in quotation marks but I thought it would be clear from the vocabulary that I was paraphrasing him. I’m sure you already know that Austria is constitutionally obligated to remain neutral. While Austria is barred from providing military assistance it has participated in sanctions and provided humanitarian assistance. That’s earned Austria a spot on Russia’s official Unfriendly Countries List https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unfriendly_countries_list

        I try to keep a more complete set of facts in mind when assessing the reliability of sources.

        • Tuukka R@sopuli.xyz
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          2
          arrow-down
          1
          ·
          edit-2
          17 days ago

          In casualties as in military losses Ukraine is doing quite badly: Ukraine has lost some 300 000 as dead and wounded, while the Russia has lost around 800 000 as dead and wounded. The population difference is 1:3½, and the difference in total military losses is 1:2½. That means, Ukraine is losing a slightly larger share of its population as military casualties than the Russia is.

          However… Neither side is going to run out of population anytime soon. Ukrainian soldiers go to the front, eventually maybe get wounded and return home one leg poorer. Their children will not have to live with their father, only without an organic right leg of the father. And for the Russian side, the deaths are a much bigger proportion of the population. There the ratio is around 1:4½, and that one favours Ukraine.

          If a person is measuring ground gained in this war, he does not understand the war very much at all. Neither side is trying to gain ground. Both sides are trying to incur as much losses to the enemy as possible. The Russia because they need to keep the gore to the maximum in order to convince the west to stop supporting Ukraine, and Ukraine, because if the Russia’s losses drop under 1000 per month, they will be able to start training their soldiers, which will make a huge difference in their dangerousness. The Russia knows very well that it will never take over Ukraine with the current speed of advancing. Remember, in year 2024 the Russia was gaining ground faster than expected. And in year 2024 they managed to gain 0.7 % of Ukraine’s total territory. Less, if you take the Kursk province’s happenings into account. 0.7 % is strategically meaninglessly little.

          Artillery shell production is currently about twice as high in the Russia as it’s in the west. But when you take into account that to hit a specific target, the very inaccurate Russian artillery needs to shoot about ten times as many rounds as western artillery, the numbers start looking different: For military use, you either should divide the Russia’s artillery shell numbers by ten, or alternatively multiply ours by ten. Depth of reserves… Well, here we come back to casualties and motivations.

          • As said, the population ratio is 1:3½.
          • The total military casualty ratio is 1:2½, favouring the Russia.
          • The military death ratio is 1:4½, favouring Ukraine.

          Russian soldiers are in it for the money. The Russia will have useful amounts of money to give to the soldiers for another six to fifteen months, about. After that the motive is gone. Typically, it is easier for the defending party to find soldiers for a war than it is for the aggressor. This is the case in this war as well. This means, when interpreting the casualty ratios, you need to add a multiplier for taking into account that the defender can tap into a larger share of the population than the aggressor can.

          Remember, Ukrainians are sending to the front less than a fifth of what they could, if we compare with Finland. Finland has a population of 5,6 million and we have about one million soldiers ready to serve within some months of the begin of a hypothetical war. Each one of them has received a top-class military training and each one has a specific place in a specific unit in the army should a war break. Ukraine has about the same size army as that, even though they have over 40 million people. The unwillingness to join the front is a surprising feature, at least from a Finnish perspective, but also a result of a lack of motivation. If the scales were to tip in the favour of the Russia, Ukrainians would get scared and more would be ready to help their country. When looking at the very large difficulties Ukraine has with conscription, you need to take this into account. The problem is of a type that solves itself. It’s extremely unfair towards the soldiers at the front that they never get relieved. And idiotic that people don’t want to join the army because soldiers never get relieved from the front … because there are not enough people ready to go to the front. And, from my experience living in Ukraine, I would say that this won’t change. They will remain understaffed as long as the war will go on, but always precisely at the limit where they can still keep scraping on.

          Ukraine’s army won’t be disappearing anytime soon, the west is effortlessly able to pay all of Ukraine’s budget indefinitely if it so wishes and the Russia is not able to gain any ground. The Russia’s goals are to cause Ukraine to collapse economically or its army to collapse from lack of manpower, and neither of those can happen. At the same time, the Russian economy, and therefore military, have at max one year time left. After that they will have nothing to use for stopping Ukraine from reclaiming its territories.

          EDIT: I want to add: While the Ukrainians’ readiness to defend their country is lower than Finns’, that’s mostly because Finland has an exceptionally high readiness for that. If you compare with Germany or France, the Ukrainians look extremely willing to go to the front. What I wanted to say is that although their willingness is very high, there is still a lot of place for improvement!

  • Lit@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    60
    arrow-down
    2
    ·
    edit-2
    18 days ago

    No wonder Krasnov Trump and Nazi Elon Musk are panicking and begging for a deal.

  • MystikIncarnate@lemmy.ca
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    61
    arrow-down
    12
    ·
    18 days ago

    Russia is going to run out of troops.

    IDK when, but they’re basically feeding their population into a meat grinder trying to take Ukraine.

    That’s not too say the Ukraine isn’t taking losses… I’ve just, seen some numbers that indicate that Russia is going to run out of people to send to their deaths before Ukraine will.

    Putin needs to give this up before he doesn’t have a military anymore.

    • Tuukka R@sopuli.xyz
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      34
      arrow-down
      1
      ·
      18 days ago

      To be clear: The Russia’s losses are increasing month after month, but their recruitment capacity is not. They are recruiting about 1000 soldiers every day, maybe a bit less. And the number seems to be going down, not growing. They are losing 1300 to 1800 each day now meaning a net loss of something like 400 to 900 soldiers per day!

      They won’t run out of population anytime soon, but they will run out of soldiers.

      • AES_Enjoyer@reddthat.com
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        10
        arrow-down
        1
        ·
        18 days ago

        They are losing 1300 to 1800 each day

        Russia is losing up to half a million men per year? What’s your source for this? It seems outlandish

        • Tuukka R@sopuli.xyz
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          10
          arrow-down
          2
          ·
          edit-2
          18 days ago

          Ukraine publishes daily statistics about Russia’s manpower losses. One would think those numbers are simply propaganda and any army would “of course” exaggerate such numbers.

          But, firstly: The numbers reported by Ukraine rise and fall hand-in-hand with the numbers given by Oryx. There is something of an almost fixed multiplier between Oryx numbers and official data provided by Ukraine. And the Oryx numbers are always published later than Ukraine publishes its own, so Ukraine cannot be just copying Oryx’s numbers and multiplying them. And it’s logical that Oryx shows only a fraction of the real number, because for most Russian combat losses there is no photo proof, and Oryx only counts what has photo proof.

          So, at least the Ukrainian numbers rise and drop without fake data added. Then the question is whether the scale of the numbers is correct, or if Ukraine intentionally inflates them with some static multiplier. Since there is data about the Russia’s recruitment capacity and the whole size of the Russia’s army, it’s visible that by recruiting about 1000 per day they can keep their army’s size constant. That shows that the losses must be around the same ballpark. And it coincides with the numbers published by Ukraine.

          But yes, now that Russians mostly do not have tanks to use in their attacks, they are really using pure meat wave attacks, and that costs a LOT of men. There’s a reason Putin is trying to convince Trump to force Ukraine into an armistice. Losing that many soldiers – indeed almost half a million per year! – is extremely unsustainable, no matter what image Putin is trying to give.

          And remember: these numbers are about irrecoverable losses, of which only a fraction are deaths. The number of deaths is far lower.

        • coolusername@lemmy.ml
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          3
          arrow-down
          12
          ·
          18 days ago

          I think these guys are CIA bots. They aren’t using common sense. Everyone including the state department and CIA agrees that Russia has air superiority right? What do you think the casualties of Russia are compared to Ukraine?

          • Slartibartfast@lemmy.dbzer0.com
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            8
            arrow-down
            1
            ·
            18 days ago

            Lol what? Russia does not have air superiority. You need a functioning air force for that. They’re to scared to fly anything and Moscow has been hit by Ukrainian drones.

            Lol air superiority. Lol I say.

        • Tuukka R@sopuli.xyz
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          2
          arrow-down
          2
          ·
          17 days ago

          Yup. And that means the Russia will be losing huge amounts of troops and equipment without gaining anything from it. The Ukrainian economy is very small, I think about the size of Slovakia’s economy. The EU can hold Ukraine’s economy up as long as it wants to. Nobody is doing the same for the Russia.

          If the Russia had to switch to defending territory without gaining anything more, how would it push for a victory before its economy collapsing?

          • VerifiedSource@sh.itjust.works
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            2
            ·
            17 days ago

            Russia has been steadily and slowly gaining territory over the last year.

            If the Russia had to switch to defending territory without gaining anything more, how would it push for a victory before its economy collapsing?

            The current attempt is Trump. It’s doubtful the Russian economy will collapse any time soon. They still have some slack and the Russian population could suffer far more. Their strategy after the first couple of months was to outlast Ukraine and its supporters. The moaning about costs in the countries supporting Ukraine is only growing. Russia has a firm lid on all opposition.

            Nobody is doing the same for the Russia

            China

            • Tuukka R@sopuli.xyz
              link
              fedilink
              English
              arrow-up
              4
              ·
              17 days ago

              the Russia has been steadily and slowly gaining territory over the last year with a speed of 0.7 % of Ukraine’s territory per year. Which is not strategically relevant. Strategically seen, the Russia has not advanced.

              I don’t really see China starting to actively cover the Russian budget. That would jeopardize China’s trade with Europe.

              The Russia’s strategy has been to outlast Ukraine’s supporters will to support Ukraine. That will never happen, unless the voices making the fake claims about time being on the Russia’s side are given too much space. Helping Ukraine is so much cheaper than the costs that incur if the Russia takes over Ukraine that there is no logical reason for the EU to end Ukraine’s support ever. Even if some countries were to withdraw their support, enough will retain it to keep Ukraine’s head over water.

              The Russian economy will collapse, sooner or later.

              • VerifiedSource@sh.itjust.works
                link
                fedilink
                English
                arrow-up
                1
                ·
                17 days ago

                The Russian economy will collapse, sooner or later.

                I agree, but think it’s later. Russia needs to lose on the battlefield as well before they stop the war.

                • Tuukka R@sopuli.xyz
                  link
                  fedilink
                  English
                  arrow-up
                  1
                  ·
                  17 days ago

                  If it’s a year later, then it is. The Russia won’t be able to recruit soldiers after its economy collapses. They are in for salary and death compensation that is defined in Rubles. Once the Ruble compensation loses its value, relatives get less motivated for letting their sons go to the front. And when the 2000$ salary becones a 100 $ salary, nobody goes to war for that money.

                  Without soldiers the front cannot be kept.

    • torrentialgrain@lemm.ee
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      32
      arrow-down
      2
      ·
      18 days ago

      Russia is running out of troops but their recruitment numbers are way higher than Ukraine’s. I support the Ukrainian armed forces unconditionally and have donated to them multiple times so believe me that it brings me no pleasure to say this, but there is no way Russia runs out of soldiers before Ukraine does.

          • einkorn@feddit.org
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            17
            ·
            18 days ago

            “Capable” in this context doesn’t just refer to training alone.

            As laid out in the video, Russian recruits are getting older and older (as in: have sometimes even fought in Soviet era conflicts) and recruitment standards are dropped more and more (apparently having Schizophrenia is OK for a Russian soldier) to keep a steady influx of warm bodies. Next, Russian recruits appear to be broadly separated into two groups: The meat shields who are rushed to the front with minimal training to plug the biggest holes in the units (stark examples include only multiple days between reported recruitment and death). The second group is going through a more traditional training regiment but also shortened. This shortening also applies to officer candidates.

            In short: Recruits are getting less physically capable due to the average age increasing drastically over time, and militarily less capable due to shortened or basically nonexistent training.

            As for the Ukrainians: I expect the video with analysis on their casualties and recruitment to drop this week.

          • Maggoty@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            12
            arrow-down
            1
            ·
            18 days ago

            Well the Ukrainians are at least trying to train their troops while Russia has been caught shoving raw recruits into the front line after literally no training. Those reports are obviously magnified by each side’s information ops but we do know the Russians have a survivability problem. The two biggest things you learn in basic are what to do when someone starts shooting, and how to hit things with your rifle. Everything else is extra that’s meant to make you able to use specialized equipment. The real learning environment has always been combat itself. And in this arena the Ukrainians are absolutely dominant.

          • CheeseNoodle@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            10
            arrow-down
            3
            ·
            18 days ago

            Because Ukranian troops have 2 things Russian troops will never have.

            • Commanders that don’t use idiotic human wave attacks.
            • Shoes.
            • Tuukka R@sopuli.xyz
              link
              fedilink
              English
              arrow-up
              12
              arrow-down
              1
              ·
              18 days ago

              It’s good to remember that a small subset of Ukrainian commanders do see soldiers as mere cannon fodder. Mere 11 years ago, the Ukrainian military was run almost precisely the same way as the Russian one. And many commanders are from before 2014. Many of them have converted to the new ways since 2014, but some haven’t. That’s a problem that severely hampers Ukraine’s recruitment capacity. Still, Ukrainians are a nation that will flex when it needs to. If the Russia starts advancing faster than the 0.7 % of Ukraine’s total area in year like they did in 2024, people get more afraid of what is going on and get motivated to join the armed forces.

            • vga@sopuli.xyz
              link
              fedilink
              English
              arrow-up
              10
              arrow-down
              1
              ·
              edit-2
              18 days ago

              Also

              • a good reason to fight

              The motivation of russian soldiers is about as sound as was the motivation of US troops in Vietnam. “Protect the free world from communism by attacking another country”. Yeah, ok.

              The US had an active force of half a million troops at the height of that attempted occupation and a total of more than 3 million troops had been deployed in Vietnam over the course of the 6 years of war. The US committed various terrorist acts and warcrimes. By the numbers, they had superiority in pretty much every way. At some point it looked like there were doing fine, and they utterly lost. They lost 58k soldiers.

              Sounds vaguely familiar to me.

              • CheeseNoodle@lemmy.world
                link
                fedilink
                English
                arrow-up
                2
                arrow-down
                1
                ·
                18 days ago

                Unfortunate slight difference, The US was unwilling to go full scorched earth, the potential effect of the US bomber fleet using just conventional munitions was described as having the potential to do almost as much devastation as a nuclear strike, despite the warcrimes the US still held back. I doubt Putin would bat an eye at such a policy we’re simply fortunate the russian military simply isn’t capable of that kind of attack.

                • supersquirrel@sopuli.xyz
                  link
                  fedilink
                  English
                  arrow-up
                  4
                  ·
                  edit-2
                  18 days ago

                  The US was unwilling to go full scorched earth, the potential effect of the US bomber fleet using just conventional munitions was described as having the potential to do almost as much devastation as a nuclear strike, despite the warcrimes the US still held back.

                  Look I want to live in a universe with a version of the US without Henry Kissinger too, but this just doesn’t seem like an honest view of the history here.

                  I don’t understand in what sense the U.S. held back from bombing. Fuck, one of the major criticisms of U.S. military strategy in the Vietnam war was the idea that if they just bombed them hard enough, over and over and over again carpet bombing with B-52s loaded to the brim with conventional bombs, than that would magically win the war all by itself.

                  Along the way, Rolling Thunder also fell prey to the same dysfunctional managerial attitudes as did the rest of the American military effort in Southeast Asia. The process of the campaign became an end unto itself, with sortie generation as the standard by which progress was measured.[129] Sortie rates and the number of bombs dropped, however, equaled efficiency, not effectiveness.[130]

                  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Rolling_Thunder

                  https://renewvn.org/the-most-bombed-place-on-earth/

                  https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2eae918ca40a4bd7a55390bba4735cdb#%3A~%3Atext=Between+1965+and+1975%2C+the%2Caerial+bombardment+in+human+history.

                  https://www.maginternational.org/what-we-do/where-we-work/laos/

                  To be clear, I don’t think this makes the illegal Russian invasion and war in Ukraine okay. I am against the war and support arming Ukrainians, fuck Putin, but I think it is important to be realistic about things as we discuss this. I am not even sure the Russian military could even approach a conventional bombing campaign on the same scale, I certainly don’t think they could do it without getting absolutely chewed up by AA since most of the munitions would have to be likely delivered by ground attack aircraft like the su-25 or even more vulnerable strategic bombers.

                  A bombing campaign of that size is essentially impossible to do in a near peer conflict like the war in Ukraine which is an environment where both sides have extensive missiles armaments, radar and electronic warfare capabilities.

              • coolusername@lemmy.ml
                link
                fedilink
                English
                arrow-up
                1
                arrow-down
                10
                ·
                18 days ago

                Do you even realize that Ukrainian terrorism via the SBU (CIA) happens around once every two weeks?

                The thousands of ethnic Russians killed by banderists?

          • DerGottesknecht@feddit.org
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            1
            ·
            17 days ago

            In addition to all the other valid arguments I want to also mention the rotation principle of the ukrainians. They deploy for six months to the Frontline and then rotate between the dugouts and a safehouse for two weeks at a time. So their soldiers have time to relax and eat good food even while deployed which keeps morale high.

            Russia used to just keep their common troops on the frontline until they were exhausted. If I recall correctly they changed this in the last months, but they most likely lost almost all of their pre war trained troops.

        • Dasus@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          6
          ·
          18 days ago

          they will run out of capable troops

          I think you’ve got the wrong tense there, comrade.

    • AA5B@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      9
      ·
      18 days ago

      Ukraine is taking horrendous losses that we should be more concerned about. Stay focussed on Ukraine succeeding, not just Russia failing

    • Korhaka@sopuli.xyz
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      10
      arrow-down
      3
      ·
      18 days ago

      Russians are going to be less willing to die to invade Ukraine than Ukrainians are to defend their homes.

      • MystikIncarnate@lemmy.ca
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        3
        arrow-down
        1
        ·
        17 days ago

        As a person who lives in a place, I would be hard pressed to ever be unwilling to defend the place where I live. I can’t even imagine giving up the fight so a foreign government can occupy the land I call home.

        I would be surprised if Ukrainians would ever get tired of defending their home land.

        I can, however, see Russians being unwilling to sign up to invade a country that clearly doesn’t want them there.

        All I’m trying to say is: I agree.

    • Triasha@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      1
      arrow-down
      3
      ·
      18 days ago

      It’s also possible they will stop the zapp Brannigan tactics and dig in to wait for the west to lose interest.

      • MystikIncarnate@lemmy.ca
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        4
        ·
        17 days ago

        Wow, what an incredible take with zero supporting information, either information I’ve seen published, ever, or information provided by you, the poster.

        Thanks for this, DrDickHandler, it’s really helping this conversation evolve into something better!

        (/s for anyone too tired to see it)

  • CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    44
    arrow-down
    3
    ·
    edit-2
    18 days ago

    Which is probably why they’re trying to bid up Ukraine with the US using their own minerals.

    Edit: Although some are suggesting this article is just propaganda, Russia’s main challenge is that their economy is on the brink of failing and domestic support becomes a question if that happens. From a skim that appears to be the main thrust of it.

    • PolydoreSmith@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      27
      arrow-down
      5
      ·
      18 days ago

      Their economy has allegedly been on the brink of failing for the past three years according to US state department talking points. Surely any day now the Ruskies will surrender…

      • CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        12
        arrow-down
        1
        ·
        edit-2
        17 days ago

        I actually doubt the US state department ever said that, exactly. They’re diplomats, are very careful about their wording, and are unlikely to promise something they aren’t totally sure about.

        I’m going by the trajectory of the now >20% interest rate, the fact they’re politically covering for massive military spending with massive handouts, the amount of assets still in Russia and the recent reports of a surge in bankruptcies. I don’t know if it will be two weeks or a year, but they can’t keep this up the same way forever.

    • DreamlandLividity@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      11
      arrow-down
      3
      ·
      edit-2
      17 days ago

      The economy, while struggling, is far from collapsing and popular support is almost a non issue. Russia is not drafting. Without a draft, most soldiers joining do so voluntarily, so there is not as much resistance. They have to pay a lot of money to make people sign up to go fight a war and the extra competition for labor (army vs factories) is increasing wages in many categories. The ones most unhappy about the situation are the oligarchs who have to pay for all of it. So unfortunately, betting on Russia somehow collapsing anytime soon is probably a loosing bet.

      The more likely bottleneck for Russia is equipment and volunteers for the Army. Their Soviets stockpiles are starting to run low. And, if Russia runs out of people willing to sign up for money, they may be forced to either end the war or start drafting with all the issues that brings.

      I base this mostly on Perun YT channel, that has many videos doing in depth analysis of various aspects of the war.

      • CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        5
        ·
        edit-2
        17 days ago

        Yeah, that’s one of my main sources too.

        This is what I mean - they need money to pay for their military industry, ever-scarcer volunteers and a bunch of feel-good handouts like cheap mortgages on top of it. They’ve basically just been burning the economic furniture to make that happen (including the old Soviet stockpiles), and at some point raising the interest rate will get diminishing returns. Eventually, their spending is going to come up against what they actually physically have and lose, and then they’ll get hyperinflation.

        It’s been suggested they could just muscle through that, and I can’t rule it out, but Russia is not Nazi Germany or even Venezuela. Putin’s regime has pretty much discouraged ideology of any kind in favour of cynical patronage, so once all the rubles they have to slosh around are worthless they’re kind of in uncharted territory.

        • DreamlandLividity@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          3
          ·
          17 days ago

          I fully agree, it’s just that the operative keyword is eventually, and I don’t expect it to mean soon. Of course they can’t keep this up forever.

          • CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            1
            ·
            17 days ago

            Once their mothballed armour runs out it seems pretty guaranteed, and there were reports of a surge in bankruptcies a bit ago.

            I’d be surprised if it’s a full year. Some kind of treaty might come soon anyway, though.

            • stringere@sh.itjust.works
              link
              fedilink
              English
              arrow-up
              2
              arrow-down
              1
              ·
              17 days ago

              Some kind of treaty might come soon anyway, though.

              Maybe the collapse is closer than we think and that’s where this sudden push to resolve the war is coming from.

              • CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org
                link
                fedilink
                English
                arrow-up
                1
                ·
                edit-2
                17 days ago

                It’s pretty much certain Putin has more idea about how long than we do, and is on a clock of however long that is, yeah.

                That being said, the big factor at the moment is Trump. Ukraine can no longer rely on US assistance, and Putin thinks he might give him a more favourable deal somehow, so that’s incentive for both sides to wrap it up.

    • coolusername@lemmy.ml
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      10
      arrow-down
      62
      ·
      edit-2
      18 days ago

      Russia’s economy is better than before the SMO started. All media in the US and those of US-controled/couped countries are controlled by the CIA.

        • InternetCitizen2@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          6
          ·
          18 days ago

          At a minimum we can say that Russia has transitioned pretty well into a war economy. It is an economic transition that is going very nice for the working class. For a long time OSINT has shown nearly depleted reserves of equipment, but they have gone very light infantry. I think it is concerning they might eek out a pyrrhic victory. It is hard to say how much longer they can stretch what is left.

          • PrettyFlyForAFatGuy@feddit.uk
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            5
            arrow-down
            1
            ·
            17 days ago

            It is an economic transition that is going very nice for the working class

            Yeah, must be real nice just lying in a field in ukraine pushing up sunflowers

            • InternetCitizen2@lemmy.world
              link
              fedilink
              English
              arrow-up
              1
              ·
              17 days ago

              I know what you mean, but the soldiers they recruit are so poor they are seeing real economic benefit for themselves and their families; more over, working class wages have grown past inflation giving them a real wage increase. Ironically the biggest losers are the oligarchs.

              • CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org
                link
                fedilink
                English
                arrow-up
                1
                ·
                edit-2
                17 days ago

                Yes, that’s actually pretty typical of warfare under the original feudalism, too. The rich hoard their wealth, until they’re gone and their palaces can be looted, or they need to bribe a mass of peasants to save their ass. Then you get redistribution.

                I’m not really sure I’d call a short-term, unsustainable cash injection at the cost of actual infrastructure and development “good for the working class”, though. If Russia becomes the next Venezuela or even Somalia they might end up with bigger problems than no Lada.

                • InternetCitizen2@lemmy.world
                  link
                  fedilink
                  English
                  arrow-up
                  1
                  ·
                  17 days ago

                  It is good for the working class in Russia and by Russian standards. These economic analysis tell us that all else equal we cannot expect Russian civil disobedience at this stage. Ironically it does mean a palace coup is more likely due to the brunt being held by Oligarchs. As for long term benefits? Hard to say, but people live today not tomorrow. Today the Russian working class is going to eat better than yesterday.

      • chaogomu@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        26
        arrow-down
        5
        ·
        18 days ago

        The CIA wishes they were even a tenth as competent as you think they are.

        Go read any of the declassified reports of CIA activity, starting with the Church commission.

        Or the actual events of Benghazi.

        The truth is, the CIA is full of bumbling chucklefucks who have no clue if the actions they take will have the effect they want.

        They can do a lot of damage, but like you, they also tend to believe the Hollywood myth making.

        This belief doesn’t make them any more competent, but it does make them more reckless and dangerous.

      • syreus@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        21
        arrow-down
        3
        ·
        18 days ago

        This is not a special military operation. It involves the citizens of both nations directly involved.

        The War in Afghanistan. The War in Iraq. The War in Gaza.

        The War in Ukraine. Started by Russia after their puppet government was ousted in Ukraine.

      • VerifiedSource@sh.itjust.works
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        13
        arrow-down
        1
        ·
        18 days ago

        GDP can increase during a war, but that’s not as beneficial as growth during peace. After all the military equipment produced doesn’t last long or provides much long term value to the economy. A civilian truck, excavator, or train locomotive can create more value for an economy for decades. A trank or artillery piece will only last for a few months during war and only causes destruction, no creation. So yeah, nominally the economy might increase, but all that labor might be for nothing in the end.

        It has been very impressive how Russia transformed its economy and circumvented sanctions. Production of military equipment is high and still increasing in parts. Goods for domestic consumption are also doing okay and standard of living hasn’t fallen much.

        Of course none of this is sustainable and has only been achievable by all kinds of tricks, but for now it works.

      • stringere@sh.itjust.works
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        4
        ·
        17 days ago

        What is SMO?

        Isn’t that the lie Putin told the world about the Russian war of aggression and invasion of Ukraine?

        3 days, right?

  • cyd@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    44
    arrow-down
    7
    ·
    edit-2
    19 days ago

    I honestly don’t know how to read the situation. Ukraine’s fought terrifically, but their status seems far less sustainable even if you discount the Trump stuff. I don’t put a lot of stock in these claims that Russia is on the verge of imploding due to the stress of the war, any day now. It is possible, but mostly seems like wishful thinking.

    External aid changes the situation a bit, but not ultimately that much because no Western power seems willing to directly intervene with troops. Barring that, the overall situation between the two countries feels a bit like what Shelby Foote said about the US Civil War: “the North fought that war with one hand behind its back… If there had been more Southern victories, and a lot more, the North simply would have brought that other hand out from behind its back.”

    • Maggoty@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      12
      ·
      edit-2
      18 days ago

      This is true to an extent. But in 1862 the US didn’t have to worry about an invasion from Canada. If the Russians remove too much from the Far East though, China is going to rename Vladivostok to Haishenwai. Also ISIS is going to start infiltrating from Central Asia, again. Russia has real security concerns on it’s borders that require a real military presence. They could not easily strip their border guard (a national paramilitary police that’s commonly included in their military headcount) or border military units. They also cannot strip the major metro areas of their paramilitary units, such as the elite units guarding Moscow. Otherwise the next Prigozhin could succeed.

      Russia already stripped what they could from the Far East at the start of the war so now they’re largely left with units on NATO borders that haven’t been called in yet. As much as it sucks, we all know NATO isn’t going to attack Russia. And in fact this is where most of the reinforcing units are coming from for things like the Kursk Salient.

      The next issue is battlefield saturation. In the American Civil War how many troops you could field was largely limited by control of water ways and rail lines. With modern vehicles and supply chains the limit is reached differently these days. Basically there’s a point at which if you add another division to a line it starts to be detrimental instead of helpful. They will actually get into each other’s way. This has remained largely unchanged since World War 2. And in fact the number of troops Russia has in Ukraine is reminiscent of World War 2, In June they reported they have 700,000 troops in Ukraine. This is likely the maximum amount of pressure they can put in the area.

      So as long as Ukraine can deal with that number of troops efficiently, they could theoretically fight forever.

      • antonim@lemmy.dbzer0.com
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        8
        ·
        18 days ago

        If the Russians remove too much from the Far East though, China is going to rename Vladivostok to Haishenwai.

        Are there any real pretensions on the territory on China’s part? It sounds like it would just cause more problems than it’s worth (though it’s not like that fact prevented Putin from attacking Ukraine), and possibly kill off BRICS.

        • Blackmist@feddit.uk
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          6
          ·
          18 days ago

          Out of the BRICS nations, the least important is Russia. They have oil and land. And although China gets through a lot of oil, not much if it comes from Russia.

          That said, I highly doubt China would invade any part of Russia. They don’t need to. Superpowers tend not to poke the others directly.

          • WhatYouNeed@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            6
            ·
            18 days ago

            It won’t be an invasion - it will be a special military occupation as the citizens in those areas really want Chinese representation.

          • Maggoty@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            2
            ·
            18 days ago

            Russia isn’t a super power. And the reason countries don’t poke each other outside of cultural ones is fear of retaliation. If the military is gone then what retaliation is there?

        • Maggoty@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          3
          arrow-down
          1
          ·
          18 days ago

          Uh yeah. China is literally building islands to expand it’s ability to access resources. The Russian Far East is also very resource rich. That’s a pretty big incentive right there.

    • alkbch@lemmy.ml
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      21
      arrow-down
      15
      ·
      18 days ago

      This is hopium, they kind of have to say this otherwise why would European countries keep supporting them?

      Remember when Putin was sick and dying? Or when the Russians would revolt and oust the government? I mean, the chance is not 0% but it’s way likelier that Russia just keeps conquering more and more territories…

      • Tuukka R@sopuli.xyz
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        24
        arrow-down
        3
        ·
        edit-2
        18 days ago

        Yeah, they will continue conquering more and more territories, just like they did through 2024.

        During 2024 they advanced faster than expected. And managed to conquer a whopping 0.7 % of Ukraine’s total territory. Less than kne percent. Or even less, if you take into account what they lost in the Kursk province.

        (Also, what is weird about a person having cancer and surviving?)

        • alkbch@lemmy.ml
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          4
          arrow-down
          2
          ·
          18 days ago

          Faster than expected by whom? If you were listening to the Western media, Ukraine was about to launch a counter-offensive and regain the lost territories; not only did that not happen, they lost even more territories.

          Nothing weird about someone having cancer and surviving. The weirdness is claiming Putin’s had several different cancers, Parkinson disease, leprosy and would soon die, repeatedly over the years, notably in 2014, 2020 and 2022.

          • Tuukka R@sopuli.xyz
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            3
            arrow-down
            2
            ·
            edit-2
            18 days ago

            They were indeed about to launch a counter offensive and indeed did. In 2023. They did not get almost any of the equipment the west had promised to supply for bringing the offence plans to reality, so the counter offensive got botched. In 2024 there was no talk of a counter offensive. Remember that the last two quarters of 2024 Ukraine got zero military help from USA.

            You’re mixing up the years.

            Also, the several different claims about different cancers were guessed by different people.

            • alkbch@lemmy.ml
              link
              fedilink
              English
              arrow-up
              2
              arrow-down
              2
              ·
              18 days ago

              Ukraine got tremendous military help from the USA throughout last year. It’s not because more funds had not been appropriated that the already appropriated funds and military assistance wasn’t provided.

              I am not mixing the years, there were also a counter-offensives in 2024.

    • freebee@sh.itjust.works
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      1
      ·
      17 days ago

      Thing is there is a hand behind the back on both sides. Russia has nukes. So do France and UK, one shouldn’t forget… Tho USA dropping support does change the conventional war, the USA dropping support doesn’t fundamentally change this hand behind the back part.

      • CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        11
        arrow-down
        1
        ·
        17 days ago

        Then go fight there. They’re hiring.

        Fair point.

        I have a friend in Kiev and they’re kidnapping people to send them to the frontline. Maybe you can take his place if you like Ukraine that much. It’s funny how jingoists who cheers for war are never the ones actually fighting it.

        Oh wait, this is an astroturf post.

      • diffusive@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        8
        arrow-down
        1
        ·
        17 days ago

        Right they should have peacefully be annexed to Soviet Union 2.0

        I guess you would have gone with that

        • Droechai@lemm.ee
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          3
          ·
          17 days ago

          A friend’s father got kidnapped by the state here in sweden due to not showing up for draft… It does sound way worse with those words though

      • Harbinger01173430@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        2
        arrow-down
        14
        ·
        17 days ago

        You kidding? Last time latinoamericana tried to show support some crazy Ukrainian girls answered with monkey emojis. Bunch of racist neanderthals.